Texas Winter 2014-2015

[wxman57]

this just my opinion but I think beaumont area is that farthest south it could reach!!! I could be totally wrong though, just by looking at the weatherrap

Don't hold your breath for much in the Beaumont area. At most you might see a few sleet pellets. The GFS indicates a large warm nose above you, with temps near 50 degrees at about 3500 ft up. Below that, the GFS indicates a small zone of sub-freezing air between about 1000 & 1500 ft up. Falling rain could freeze in that zone, producing sleet.

To answer another question, 00Z Tuesday is the same as 6pm CST Monday. 12Z = 6am CST

[Portastorm]

Wow, if that 15z SREF verifies, we're going to have quite the ice storm here in the Austin area on Monday.

[wxman57]

Wow, if that 15z SREF verifies, we're going to have quite the ice storm here in the Austin area on Monday.

The vertical profile for Austin looks like sleet and freezing rain. Large warm nose with temps in the mid to upper 40s overhead, but the lower 1000-1500 ft is predicted to be below freezing with precip. Travel could get quite hazardous from Austin to south of Waco to south of Longview on Monday.

[Portastorm]

Wow, if that 15z SREF verifies, we're going to have quite the ice storm here in the Austin area on Monday.

The vertical profile for Austin looks like sleet and freezing rain. Large warm nose with temps in the mid to upper 40s overhead, but the lower 1000-1500 ft is predicted to be below freezing with precip. Travel could get quite hazardous from Austin to south of Waco to south of Longview on Monday.

Oh yeah, I don't expect any snow based on that vertical profile. And again, I don't know how accurate the SREF usually is ... but it seems bullish on this event for my region of Texas. Given what's happened (or not happened) this winter, I'm still skeptical of anything but a cold rain occurring. However if the models are still showing this by tomorrow night, then I'll lace up my cleats and take the field ... staring down Lucy.

Just in case, I went out and bought that can of snow you recommended.

[Tcu101]

Wow, if that 15z SREF verifies, we're going to have quite the ice storm here in the Austin area on Monday.

The vertical profile for Austin looks like sleet and freezing rain. Large warm nose with temps in the mid to upper 40s overhead, but the lower 1000-1500 ft is predicted to be below freezing with precip. Travel could get quite hazardous from Austin to south of Waco to south of Longview on Monday.

This excludes DFW for any possible travel problems then?

[weatherdude1108]

Maybe we will have our first "ice day" Monday(?). We had like five last year.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/ewx/ ... image5.png

[wxman57]

Wow, if that 15z SREF verifies, we're going to have quite the ice storm here in the Austin area on Monday.

The vertical profile for Austin looks like sleet and freezing rain. Large warm nose with temps in the mid to upper 40s overhead, but the lower 1000-1500 ft is predicted to be below freezing with precip. Travel could get quite hazardous from Austin to south of Waco to south of Longview on Monday.

This excludes DFW for any possible travel problems then?

The areas I quoted above were the southern extent of the ice storm (but not necessarily the southern extent of any freezing rain and sleet). D-FW is definitely in the crosshairs.

[wxman57]

Oh yeah, I don't expect any snow based on that vertical profile. And again, I don't know how accurate the SREF usually is ... but it seems bullish on this event for my region of Texas. Given what's happened (or not happened) this winter, I'm still skeptical of anything but a cold rain occurring. However if the models are still showing this by tomorrow night, then I'll lace up my cleats and take the field ... staring down Lucy.

Just in case, I went out and bought that can of snow you recommended.

Would you consider sleet & freezing rain a "hit"? I thought only snow counted as far as Lucy.

[Brent]

Winter storm watch coming from FWD according to this

http://wx5fwd.org/nwsupdate

[somethingfunny]

As an Eastplexer I'm still taking a wait-and-see approach here. I live only a mile south of the line of demarcation between heavy sleet and heavy freezing rain from last December's storm.. my roads were totally fine but my trees were totally decimated, whereas just a mile north of me the situation was reversed.

wxman57, still too early to make a call on ZR vs PL precip types?

[Portastorm]

Oh yeah, I don't expect any snow based on that vertical profile. And again, I don't know how accurate the SREF usually is ... but it seems bullish on this event for my region of Texas. Given what's happened (or not happened) this winter, I'm still skeptical of anything but a cold rain occurring. However if the models are still showing this by tomorrow night, then I'll lace up my cleats and take the field ... staring down Lucy.

Just in case, I went out and bought that can of snow you recommended.

Would you consider sleet & freezing rain a "hit"? I thought only snow counted as far as Lucy.

That's true ... see how desperate things are?!

Appreciate your insights ... we all do. And yes I know if we get "winter" in the next 7-10 days, you'll make us pay this summer.

[TheProfessor]

So I'm guessing they are going to issue it during the 4 pm update they said they were going to do?

[Brent]

:uarrow: So I'm guessing they are going to issue it during the 4 pm update they said they were going to do?

I would assume so yes... So it hits the Friday evening newscasts

[gboudx]

Winter storm watch coming from FWD according to this

http://wx5fwd.org/nwsupdate

Thanks for that link. Very good info.

As an Eastplexer I'm still taking a wait-and-see approach here. I live only a mile south of the line of demarcation between heavy sleet and heavy freezing rain from last December's storm.. my roads were totally fine but my trees were totally decimated, whereas just a mile north of me the situation was reversed.

wxman57, still too early to make a call on ZR vs PL precip types?

Yep, same for this Eastplexer.

[Portastorm]

EWX's Hampshire has another outstanding forecast discussion. I would strongly recommend south central Texas folks read his afternoon AFD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

[vbhoutex]

At least one OCM here in Houston has alluded to the possibility of some sleet for us, but not any more than we had earlier this week. I'll start looking closer tomorrow. Last look was quite iffy for anything besides rain in the Houston metro area.

[gboudx]

Here we go.

RGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
320 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

TXZ091>094-100>104-115>120-129>133-141-210600-
/O.NEW.KFWD.WS.A.0001.150223T0000Z-150224T0000Z/
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-ROCKWALL-EASTLAND-ERATH-
HOOD-SOMERVELL-JOHNSON-COMANCHE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BOWIE...NOCONA...GAINESVILLE...
SHERMAN...DENISON...BONHAM...GRAHAM...OLNEY...JACKSBORO...
DECATUR...BRIDGEPORT...DENTON...LEWISVILLE...FLOWER MOUND...
THE COLONY...PLANO...BRECKENRIDGE...MINERAL WELLS...WEATHERFORD...
BRIAR...FORT WORTH...ARLINGTON...DALLAS...ROCKWALL...CISCO...
EASTLAND...RANGER...GORMAN...STEPHENVILLE...DUBLIN...GRANBURY...
OAK TRAIL SHORES...GLEN ROSE...CLEBURNE...BURLESON...COMANCHE...
DE LEON
320 PM CST FRI FEB 20 2015

...winter storm watch in effect from sunday evening through
monday afternoon...

the National Weather Service in fort worth has issued a winter
storm watch, which is in effect from sunday evening through
monday afternoon.

* timing, late sunday evening through monday.

* precipitation type, mainly sleet and freezing rain.

* accumulations, sleet accumulations around 1/2 inch with locally
higher amounts. ice accumulations from freezing rain around 1/10
of an inch.

* temperatures, falling to below freezing sunday evening and into
the low to mid 20S early monday morning. highs on monday will be
near freezing.

* main impact, sleet and ice accumulations will make travel
hazardous across parts of north texas. bridges are likely to ice
over first with main roads also accumulating sleet.

* other impacts, temperatures are not expected to warm up
considerably on monday. any residual sleet or ice will likely
remain on area roads. refreezing of any melted ice or sleet will
likely occur monday evening.

precautionary/preparedness actions...

a winter storm watch means there is a potential for significant
snow, sleet, or ice accumulations that may impact travel.

[Ralph's Weather]

18Z NAM and 15Z SREF give me around .25 QPF while keeping me below freezing all day Monday. Nothing huge, but more than enough to cause major travel issues if the temp holds in the 20s all day.

[vbhoutex]

Here is part of the AFD for Houston/Galveston.

SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY A STRONG COLD FRONT STARTS TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA WITH A 1048MB RIDGE MOVING INTO THE N PLAINS. THIS WILL HELP
SUPPORT MORE WIDE SPREAD RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BASED ON
MODEL SOUNDINGS AND ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS...FRONTAL SURFACE WILL BE
VERY SHALLOW AND BY 12Z MONDAY THE 850MB FRONT STALLS OVER N TX.
ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 290/295K SURFACES WILL BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CLOUDS
AND RAIN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE JUST HOW
COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS HAS BEEN TRENDING
COLDER WITH THE ECMWF NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FOR TEMPS MON INTO TUE.
FOR NOW MONDAY MORNING TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR THE
AREA SO NO CONCERN FOR FROZEN PRECIP YET. TEMPS MONDAY MORNING
WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED WITH TRENDS BEING COLDER. TEMPS ON TUESDAY
MORNING DO LOOK TO DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR A FEW HRS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. LOOKING AT GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR KCLL AND
KLFK...THERE IS A LARGE WARM NOSE OF ALMOST 8-9C AT 850MB BUT ALSO
A NEAR SURFACE SUB FREEZING LAYER ALMOST 2000 FEET DEEP. WITH
SATURATED CONDITIONS BELOW 700MB LOOK FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE TO BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST ADDED MENTION OF
RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN FOR SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY MORNING. HOUSTON STILL REMAINS ABOVE
FREEZING DURING THIS TIME SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPACTS FOR THE
METRO AREA. PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE FOR AREAS FROM COLLEGE STATION
TO HUNTSVILLE OVER TO LUFKIN. POSSIBLE THAT FZRA COULD REACH AS
FAR SOUTH AS BRENHAM...CONROE...CLEVELAND BUT THOSE AREAS WILL BE
ON THE EDGE OF FREEZING TEMPS.

AFTER TUE THE GFS/ECMWF FORECASTS DIVERGE WITH THE GFS BRINGING
ACROSS A MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY THAT WILL BE EXPECTED TO
FORM SUNDAY/MONDAY OVER THE GREAT BASIN. THE ECMWF SHEARS THIS
TROUGH OUT A BIT WITH A WEAKER WAVE MOVING ACROSS WED NIGHT INTO
THUR WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE. LEANED MORE ON THE ECMWF
AS IT IS MORE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE CANADIAN MODEL
PROVIDES SOME SUPPORT FOR THIS SOLUTION.

OVERALL LOOK FOR A COLD WEEK NEXT WEEK WITH THE OVERALL UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN REMAINING UNCHANGED. LOOK FOR ANOTHER RE-ENFORCING
SHOT OF COLD AIR THUR/FRI OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS CLOSE
TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE MONTH.

[wxman57]

As an Eastplexer I'm still taking a wait-and-see approach here. I live only a mile south of the line of demarcation between heavy sleet and heavy freezing rain from last December's storm.. my roads were totally fine but my trees were totally decimated, whereas just a mile north of me the situation was reversed.

wxman57, still too early to make a call on ZR vs PL precip types?

We won't have a really good idea of the precip types until Sunday evening at the earliest. It all depends on the depth of the cold air, and we may not be too sure until after sunrise Monday.