Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Golfisnteasy7575]

The models continue to bring the goods. This is shaping up to be an all timer. Still a ways to go but the consistency is hard to ignore.

It's not a huge cluster, but has grown a bit over the last few runs.

You able to check the EPO on the Euro-EPS? I am wondering if it has trended more negative

It looks around the same as yesterday 12z

[Iceresistance]

Just spotted this 12z UKMET run, 582 dm Ridge just south of Alaska (Got this from a friend)


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXAK3.gif

[Harp.1]

Just spotted this 12z UKMET run, 582 dm Ridge just south of Alaska (Got this from a friend)

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXAK3.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXAK3.gif

What does this signify?

[txtwister78]

Just spotted this 12z UKMET run, 582 dm Ridge just south of Alaska (Got this from a friend)

https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXAK3.gif
https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXAK3.gif

What does this signify?

Negative EPO signal/huge ridge into western Alaska which sets up arctic cold air delivery into the country. All models have it. Just a question of how cold at this point.

[Brent]

An OKC station already has single digit lows and a storm system

[wxman22]

There's good support from the GFS ensembles for a southern plains winterstorm considering the range at least. Hours 210 and 216 below.

[Brent]

Now a met here talking about near zero temperatures

[Throckmorton]

Deleted.

[Texas Snow]

There's good support from the GFS ensembles for a southern plains winterstorm considering the range at least. Hours 210 and 216 below.

https://i.ibb.co/mb8G3kD/gfs.png
https://i.ibb.co/HNscqZ9/download-18.png

Which site do you use for ensemble panels? I pay for Pivotal but they don’t have them. Weatherbell has them but I don’t see their logo on yours.

[Stratton23]

Therockmorton keep in mind this is air coming trom siberia, im expecting ensembles to trend even colder as we get closer to this event, models almost always underestimate how cold these airmasses are, especially since we have an established snowpack to our north

[wxman22]

There's good support from the GFS ensembles for a southern plains winterstorm considering the range at least. Hours 210 and 216 below.

https://i.ibb.co/mb8G3kD/gfs.png
https://i.ibb.co/HNscqZ9/download-18.png

Which site do you use for ensemble panels? I pay for Pivotal but they don’t have them. Weatherbell has them but I don’t see their logo on yours.

It's from the College of Dupage weather site.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

[Texas Snow]

There's good support from the GFS ensembles for a southern plains winterstorm considering the range at least. Hours 210 and 216 below.

https://i.ibb.co/mb8G3kD/gfs.png
https://i.ibb.co/HNscqZ9/download-18.png

Which site do you use for ensemble panels? I pay for Pivotal but they don’t have them. Weatherbell has them but I don’t see their logo on yours.

It's from the College of Dupage weather site.

https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/

Got it thanks.

[Throckmorton]

EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows (Jan. 11th, 12Z run):

29–11...(49–00)...(B02)...Amarillo
41–26...(56–19)...(17).....Austin Camp Mabry
36–22...(47–14)...(07).....Dallas
43–31...(55–22)...(16).....Houston
29–13...(45–03)...(B03)...Oklahoma City
28–13...(43–03)...(B01)...Tulsa

Most of these stations at the 10th percentile would get close to the existing record lows.

=====

GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 22nd along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows (Jan. 11th, 18Z run):

38–12...(55–B03)...(B06)...Amarillo
41–27...(59–16).....(14).....Austin Camp Mabry
36–24...(53–13).....(06).....Dallas
44–33...(56–25).....(15).....Houston
33–18...(49–04).....(B08)...Oklahoma City
31–16...(47–06).....(B16)...Tulsa

Only two of these stations at the 10th percentile would get close to the existing record lows.

=====

GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 22nd along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows (Jan. 11th, 12Z run):

26–09...(46–B08)...(B06)...Amarillo
39–23...(61–10).....(14).....Austin Camp Mabry
35–22...(52–11).....(06).....Dallas
41–28...(72–12).....(15).....Houston
26–15...(49–01).....(B08)...Oklahoma City
24–08...(45–B02)...(B16)...Tulsa

[Quicksilver17]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic, looks like a february 2021 run.

Stratton23,
Any thoughts this one could give us some action this far south? I live in Tomball but work in the energy corridor for Wood. So, near your area. It would be nice to get some snow back down here since we missed out on the fun with the guys up in North Texas. We always seen to have an issue with the cold dropping off this far and the warm gulf keeping everything liquid.

[Throckmorton]

CMC goes absolutely ballistic, looks like a february 2021 run.

Stratton23,
Any thoughts this one could give us some action this far south? I live in Tomball but work in the energy corridor for Wood. So, near your area. It would be nice to get some snow back down here since we missed out on the fun with the guys up in North Texas. We always seen to have an issue with the cold dropping off this far and the warm gulf keeping everything liquid.

Maybe some mixed precipitation on Jan. 20th according to the Canadian GEM model.

[Stratton23]

Quicksilver17 if we want winter precipitation in the deep south, like se texas, we need a coastal low to develop, that would help throw up moisture into texas, when we are talking about siberian air coming down, getting cold enough wouldnt be an issue, its always timing that’s the issue, but if we can time this out just right, we do have a shot, but that also means a potential ice storm too as we have to consider its hard to just get pure snow down here, mainly due to the warm nose

[Quixotic]

I have seen a -6 to 7 in 2013-2014 timeframe.

Top 10 maybe top 5 winter. 78, 10, 77, 79, 64 only ones I’d put above it. Maybe 85.

I'm not sure how the values are calculated on the forecast sites but PSL maintains a daily timeseries from 1948. For DJF December 1983 hold the highest at -553.65. 1989 -412.12 is notable. Though you don't necessarily need very deep values of the EPO to have a big outbreak, if it is in the deep -3s, -4s, and -5 SDs you're probably looking at a big dome of high pressure system sending cold into the front range.

https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Meant to respond to this earlier but the only reason I left off 83-84 is because it was just December that was epic and January and February were pretty meh. For those that weren’t here, it was legendary and pretty much the standard for cold. Not even February 2021 touched it. Snow on the 16th, snowman up the next day and then an absolutely insane Arctic HP came down. Still think it’s the all time record for highest pressure in DFW. We went below freezing for 10 days. Saw 38 on the 28th. You could drive your car across lakes. Ice fish. A few people got themselves smoked by pushing it too far. You know it has been cold when 38 felt like summer.

Anywho, I downgraded 83-84 because it was only one month. But as they say, what a month it was.

[Stratton23]

00z ICON coming in quicker with the arctic air

[Brent]

Snow next Sunday Monday on TV with highs in the 20s

[Ntxw]

Trough orientation of the GFS and ICON is not the best for precip, but definitely cold. Canadian would be a better dig.