Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[vbhoutex]

The snow gods have been good to many parts of Texas this winter even if there is no more snowfall but no 100s yet please and not too many this summer either.

Agree with that!!
So much for the forecast highs here in Houston today(upper 40's). 37ºf was all we could manage here in W. Houston and we have already been down to 32ºf here at the house this evening. Right now it is at 35.2ºf so we may have seen the low for this evening which could indicate a return flow from the S or SE has commenced and is starting to mix down a little. Will be interesting to watch.
Thanks for the pics Steve. I have never snow skied, but have been all over the Tahoe area in Summer and in Winter. I have vivid memories of the time my Grandpa took me up there to see the snow and to go over Donner pass in the winter. Growing up in N. FL. I obviously had never seen anything like the 7 feet of snow that was on the ground where we went!! It even towered over me and I wasn't a tiny boy at the age of 12. Incredibly beautiful comes to mind also. We didn't stay overnight because he didn't have chains and they were expecting 9" of snow that night. Again, thanks for the memories.

[Ntxw]

Time to put in the crickets soundtrack.

[jasons2k]

I got lucky - 34 here...

[vbhoutex]

I got lucky - 34 here...

31ºf here this am. I am surprised your lows are consistently the same as or higher than mine. I live near I-10 and The Sam Houston Tollway. We are not concrete jungle here, but we certainly aren't lacking in "concrete jungle" in the area. I remember when IAH opened the lows were always 3-5 degrees cooler than those "in town". Now that IAH has grown so big and has a lot of development around it the lows(official)there are now usually warmer than we have. I believe someone posted that the station where it is measured is too close to the runways now and needs to be moved to a more remote area of the airport. Of course when you are talking a huge metro area like Houston there will be a some variation in temps. due to terrain and water proximity, etc.

[Portastorm]

Time to put in the crickets soundtrack.

Ah Ntxw, we're just catching our breath after last week!

At the moment, there really isn't much to talk about. In this thread and in the Arctic cold thread, many folks have shared that atmospheric markers point to a likely colder-than-normal, wetter-than-normal February. Those "signals" have not changed and continue to point in that direction.

The operational runs of both the GFS and Euro don't show any huge winter storms for us in the Southern Plains but at the same time, the op runs changes are occuring. Two days ago it looked like a blow torch for much of the USA. Now, they're showing a huge, deep trough over the Eastern US by next weekend. I would expect more changes in the next 48 hours in the op runs and it's definitely worth watching.

The Arctic Oscillation is forecasted (still) to tank big time negative ... the NAO is also forecasted to go and remain negative, and the PNA marker will be positive (which usually signals colder-than-normal temps for us in the Southern Plains). We continue to see signs of stratospheric warming propogating down into the troposphere (which means cold air coming!).

Much of February should be fun for us. I'm only hoping that I can finally get in on the action!

[wxman57]

Models (GFS/Euro) still aren't showing any significant cold air intrusions across the Gulf Coast through about the 10-14 of February. Projected 500mb flow isn't the type that would bring winter weather to Texas (except maybe panhandle). Meanwhile, temps in SW Houston haven't climbed above 40 since Friday afternoon.

[DentonGal]

Interesting article by JB regarding models....

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bastard ... e-blog.asp

[Ntxw]

Well at least the fantasy storms look nice and post frontal precip on this morning's GFS. Too far out to believe yet. Clouds are hanging tight here so im guessing another chilly day!

[srainhoutx]

Hopefully we'll see some sensible solutions ahead with Pacific RECON tasked for Monday-Wednesday. G-IV out of Japan and C-130 out of Anchorage will be busy. Hopefully the drier air can work W today under the inversion. Haven't been out of the 30's since Friday night here in NW Harris County.

[Portastorm]

Anyone see the 12z GFS yet about 216 hours? Sure enough ... the models are changing and I would reference my earlier post from this morning.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_216l.gif

And here's a lovely little map for Thursday morning, Feb. 11th. Lots of snowcover for Portastorm!

[srainhoutx]

Let's see what Pacific RECON will bring from the data ingest. I suspect some 'fine tuning' via guidance in the next couple of days...

NOUS42 KNHC 311700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST SUN 31 JANUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-062

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. P27/ 35.5N 156.0W / 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 11WSC TRACK27
C. 02/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 02/1800Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P99/ 47.0N 164.5E/ 02/1200Z
B. NOAA9 12WSW TRACK99
C. 02/0800Z
D. TRACK ALONG PTS: 37.1N 141.0E, 36.9N 151.1E
37.7N 160.3E, 39.6N 167.7E, 45.8N 167.7N,
47.7N 162.7E, 46.5N 158.2E, 43.3N 150.4E,
38.5N 141.3E.
E. 41,000 TO 45,000FT/ 02/1800Z
F. BEGIN AND END DROPS AT 150E.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK
A. PSBL FLIGHT FOR C130, TRACK P28, 35.0N 150.0W, FOR 03/12Z.

B. PSBL FLIFGT FOR GIV, FOR 03/12Z, TRACK TO BE DETERMINED.
WVW

[wxman22]

Its been a while since any of the models have shown anything interesting but it finally looks like the GFS may be sniffing out the pattern change finally...Only time will tell but for what its worth it brings an ice/snow event for Texas and the South...of course its in lala land

[Ntxw]

Let's see what Pacific RECON will bring from the data ingest. I suspect some 'fine tuning' via guidance in the next couple of days...

NOUS42 KNHC 311700
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1200 PM EST SUN 31 JANUARY 2010
SUBJECT: WINTER STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z FEBRUARY 2010
WSPOD NUMBER.....09-062

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. P27/ 35.5N 156.0W / 02/1200Z
B. AFXXX 11WSC TRACK27
C. 02/0600Z
D. 19 DROPS AS PUBLISHED ON TRACK
E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 02/1800Z

FLIGHT TWO -- NOAA49
A. P99/ 47.0N 164.5E/ 02/1200Z
B. NOAA9 12WSW TRACK99
C. 02/0800Z
D. TRACK ALONG PTS: 37.1N 141.0E, 36.9N 151.1E
37.7N 160.3E, 39.6N 167.7E, 45.8N 167.7N,
47.7N 162.7E, 46.5N 158.2E, 43.3N 150.4E,
38.5N 141.3E.
E. 41,000 TO 45,000FT/ 02/1800Z
F. BEGIN AND END DROPS AT 150E.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK
A. PSBL FLIGHT FOR C130, TRACK P28, 35.0N 150.0W, FOR 03/12Z.

B. PSBL FLIFGT FOR GIV, FOR 03/12Z, TRACK TO BE DETERMINED.
WVW

Don't mess with my head Srain! I've already bought that storm as a waterman maker!

[Ntxw]

It's noon and we're sitting at freezing with thick cloud cover. On any given winter that i've seen (before this one) the stretch of cold since Thursday would easily be the coldest of the season. But as we all know how this winter has gone and today\yesterday was just a so so un-hyped cool down. shadowed by the last storm.

[Portastorm]

Same here in AUS. Temps just above freezing with thick overcast at the noon hour. It's a far cry from the low 50s forecasted earlier this morning by NWS for our high.

Houston hasn't been out of the 30s since Friday.

I don't think any model guidance showed this happening!

[srainhoutx]

We may see some clearing here in the next hour or so. The 12Z ECMWF will likely raise some eyebrows in the "longer range".

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: We may see some clearing here in the next hour or so. The 12Z ECMWF will likely raise some eyebrows in the "longer range".

I don't see any snow for Texas in that run, however towards the end there is a nosing down of COLD air making it's move down the northern plains.

[wxman22]

Also the European and the GFS 500mb upper air pattern look almost identical(ie notice the trough/system at baja) being that far out anyways...

[serenata09]

I noticed on NWS DFW that they are forecasting pretty decent rain chances on Wednesday and Thursday nights with lows in the mid-upper 30's dependent upon when you live in the metroplex. Any chance of that becoming of the frozen variety?

[Ntxw]

Unless something big changes and a mysterious shot of polar\arctic air catches us by surprise, the storm later this week is warmer than the last one even up in Oklahoma and Texas panhandle. Look for on and off rain locally heavy at times with seasonal to slightly cooler temperatures for our area and most of Texas. Based on 12z GFS there could be a changeover towards the end of it up in Oklahoma.

Edit: GFS also has an upper low tracking across the southern plains in the same time frame, lets see where that goes as we get closer.

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