Texas Winter 2010-2011

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txwxwatcher
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5021 Postby txwxwatcher » Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:55 am

Ntxw wrote:
South Texas Storms wrote:Is this model the only one showing a snowstorm for northern areas of Houston?


All of the models in some shape or form does. Most are very light. CMC is the most heavy :wink:



Ntxw, how much snow is the CMC showing for Houston?
Last edited by txwxwatcher on Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:57 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5022 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:55 am

hriverajr wrote:I would say there is an excellent chance.. they will make it to San Antonio. A small chance they move just to the north. This looks more like a fall type line of Thunderstorms instead of a late winter one. Amazing..


I agree. I really hope the line doesn't go just north of SA!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5023 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 01, 2011 12:57 am

I don't have detailed information on the CMC. Perhaps a pro met can provide that. It's not important right now though, CMC is the alone in drawing back a lot of moisture. Give it some time and see what the more reliable models show.

The storm currently has been giving models a headache. Even now, short range models are struggling with it. Some ppl are going to be in for a rude awakening in the morning. HRRR now expanding the area of wintry precip east and south.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5024 Postby txwxwatcher » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:01 am

Ntxw wrote:I don't have detailed information on the CMC. Perhaps a pro met can provide that. It's not important right now though, CMC is the alone in drawing back a lot of moisture. Give it some time and see what the more reliable models show.

The storm currently has been giving models a headache. Even now, short range models are struggling with it. Some ppl are going to be in for a rude awakening in the morning.



Thanks for your input. I have read that the NAM, which is showing several inches of snow accumulation in the city of Houston on Friday, is usually among the last to catch on. Thinking that precip forecasts are being underestimated...
Last edited by txwxwatcher on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5025 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:01 am

Dang, Denton just went from 38 to 34 in one hour. Almost there, then there is no turning back. This could get interesting.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5026 Postby serenata09 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:02 am

Snowing in Fort Worth.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5027 Postby newtotex » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:03 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Dang, Denton just went from 38 to 34 in one hour. Almost there, then there is no turning back. This could get interesting.


Im gona enjoy that sleet skating!
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5028 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:04 am

Fort worth Meachum reporting light snow and 36 deg

31.4 according to the weather bug station on the west side of Fort Worth.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5029 Postby DonWrk » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:06 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Dang, Denton just went from 38 to 34 in one hour. Almost there, then there is no turning back. This could get interesting.


Freezing line is so close. Just wonder how long till the precip will start freezing or falling as sleet/snow instead of rain still.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5030 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:08 am

Abilene is reporting thunderstorm and snow :eek:. Perhaps dynamic cooling is taking effect more than progged.

Decatur 32 and light snow.
Gainesville 34 and light snow.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5031 Postby Parker_County1 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:11 am

It's at 32 here now (Weatherford). But it is still only rain. I expect the transition is about to occur to sleet or snow (or else it will be freezing rain soon).

Do I always need to say my location or does it show me as being from Weatherford?
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5032 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:11 am

Parker_County1 wrote:It's at 32 here now (Weatherford). But it is still only rain. I expect the transition is about to occur to sleet or snow (or else it will be freezing rain soon).

Do I always need to say my location or does it show me as being from Weatherford?

it doesnt show ur from weatherford, but you can list it by editing your profile.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5033 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:12 am

If these radar reflectivities are accurate, Fort Worth should be transitioning over to sleet before 1 am. And if that's the case, we could double these storm totals currently forecast.
Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:12 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5034 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:12 am

Good lord. I do a little workout and notice the winds going crazy so i'm like "oh cold front is here" 30 minutes later I step outside and i'm like "OH MY FREAKING GOSH THE COLD FRONT IS HERE!!!!!!!"
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5035 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:13 am

Models have been total junk. Even the short range RUC/HRRR. All fail. Reports > models. Everything is unfolding a lot faster than expected.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5036 Postby iorange55 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:14 am

Ntxw wrote:Models have been total junk. Even the short range RUC/HRRR. All fail. Reports > models.


When I left an hour or so ago I thought things were trending downwards a tad. Doesn't seem that way now.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5037 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:14 am

Do I have every right to be concerned that if we get a few inches of snow/sleet/ice that there is a very good possibility that I will be stuck at my place until Friday at best due to road conditions and temps being what they are forecasted? Just thinking this is getting real and quick and there is nothing we can do about it.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 3&map.y=68

And I am off of work tomorrow so I got all night now.
Last edited by HockeyTx82 on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:15 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5038 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:15 am

Tulsa taking it on the chin...thunderstorm, heavy snow, and 25 degrees with a 20 mph wind.

Check out their NWS forecast:

Overnight: Snow and sleet, becoming all snow after 3am. Low around 15. Blustery, with a north wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday: Snow and areas of blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 24. Windy, with a north northwest wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 14 inches possible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5039 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:15 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Do I have every right to be concerned that if we get a few inches of snow/sleet/ice that there is a very good possibility that I will be stuck at my place until Friday at best due to road conditions and temps being what they are forecasted? Just thinking this is getting real and quick and there is nothing we can do about it.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 3&map.y=68


Probably. With the temps forecasted, it's not going anywhere until the weekend.
Last edited by Ntxw on Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2010-2011

#5040 Postby Texas Snowman » Tue Feb 01, 2011 1:16 am

HockeyTx82 wrote:Do I have every right to be concerned that if we get a few inches of snow/sleet/ice that there is a very good possibility that I will be stuck at my place until Friday at best due to road conditions and temps being what they are forecasted? Just thinking this is getting real and quick and there is nothing we can do about it.

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 3&map.y=68

And I am off of work tomorrow so I got all night now.


I don't know about getting stranded. Probably going to depend on how much we end up getting here in N. Texas. Now roads will be TREACHEROUS for sure. I remember a couple of viscious sleet storms in the 1980s here. Solid sheet of ice for days afterwards...
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