Texas Winter 2014-2015

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

[weatherdude1108]

EWX's Hampshire has another outstanding forecast discussion. I would strongly recommend south central Texas folks read his afternoon AFD.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=EWX&issuedby=EWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

I just did! I was about to post, but it was very lengthy, and probably would have taken up a whole page on this forum. Good stuff! I knew immediately when he was mentioning lapse rates, omegas, joules, and equilibrium levels, this was our guy.

Looking more and more like an ice event Monday.

Schools and businesses will likely wait until last call to put out the "no work alert."

[gpsnowman]

Well dang. Is it too late in the game for all this to become snow? At any rate, winter has decided to make a strong comeback and like Chevy Chase said in Modern Problems, I LIKE IT!!!!

[aggiecutter]

18Z NAM and 15Z SREF give me around .25 QPF while keeping me below freezing all day Monday. Nothing huge, but more than enough to cause major travel issues if the temp holds in the 20s all day.

What does the 18z GFS prog for the Texarkana area as far as total precipitation when temperatures are at or below freezing. Looking at the 18z run it looks like mainly freezing rain and not much of that for anyone. Thanks.

[gpsnowman]

CBS 11 already calling for a high of 34 with possible snow for next Friday. Im jumping the gun a bit but this upcoming week sure looks awesome.

[Kludge]

I wonder how many times Lucy has been posted in this thread so far.

Drink!

Roger-that. LOL the first 100 times. Not so much the last 100.

What Really Sux: We go D-J-F.5 with winter precip teases, and now with the trees and flowers fooled into springtime mode, here comes the real deal.

I'm actually (for the first time ever) rooting for Lucy big-time on this one, if Charley getting his kicks means setting back the tree and bluebonnet blooms.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the 18Z GFS wetter with widespread .25"+ QPF and .5"+ over NE Texas while temps are below freezing. If you assume that it falls primarily as sleet then you are looking at .5-3" amounts. It shows QPF and sub 32F temps for 48 hours in NE TX. It shows my place falling below 40 Sunday afternoon and not hitting 40 again until Thursday afternoon. From this afternoon's model runs it looks like we will see winter storm warning criteria reached for a large chunk of the northern portion of the state. The late week storm is coming into the picture so lets see what it shows.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like the 18Z GFS wetter with widespread .25"+ QPF and .5"+ over NE Texas while temps are below freezing. If you assume that it falls primarily as sleet then you are looking at .5-3" amounts. It shows QPF and sub 32F temps for 48 hours in NE TX. It shows my place falling below 40 Sunday afternoon and not hitting 40 again until Thursday afternoon. From this afternoon's model runs it looks like we will see winter storm warning criteria reached for a large chunk of the northern portion of the state. The late week storm is coming into the picture so lets see what it shows.

So. you are saying approximately .50" of QPF for the Texarkana area with temperatures below freezing, according to the 18z GFS.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the 18Z GFS wetter with widespread .25"+ QPF and .5"+ over NE Texas while temps are below freezing. If you assume that it falls primarily as sleet then you are looking at .5-3" amounts. It shows QPF and sub 32F temps for 48 hours in NE TX. It shows my place falling below 40 Sunday afternoon and not hitting 40 again until Thursday afternoon. From this afternoon's model runs it looks like we will see winter storm warning criteria reached for a large chunk of the northern portion of the state. The late week storm is coming into the picture so lets see what it shows.

So. you are saying approximately .50" of QPF for the Texarkana area with temperatures below freezing, according to the 18z GFS.

Yep, looks like a solid sleet event to me especially up there. Based on the 18Z GFS you could see 2"+ of sleet.

[aggiecutter]

Shreveport NWS not very bullish on the event. Moisture, or lack thereof, seems to be the problem.

PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP AND
BELOW FREEZING SETTING THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KJSO TO COLUMBIA LA...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TX TO EL DORADO AR...AND PREDOMINATLY SNOW
NORTH OF THE OK/TX LINE TO ROSSTON AR. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20
COULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO LIQUID RAIN IF TEMPS CAN WARM
ENOUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STORM
TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE NEAR ONE
INCH NORTH OF I-30. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
ANY HEAVY BAND DEVELOPS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TRACK
DIFFERENCES OF LESS THAN 10 MILES MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN PRECIP TYPE OR AMOUNTS.

[Ralph's Weather]

Shreveport NWS not very bullish on the event. Moisture, or lack thereof, seems to be the problem.

PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL LIQUID RAIN UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING AS ARCTIC
AIR BEGINS TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. TEMPS WILL QUICKLY DROP AND
BELOW FREEZING SETTING THE STAGE FOR WINTRY PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE FREEZING RAIN WITH SOME SLEET NORTH OF A
LINE FROM KJSO TO COLUMBIA LA...A MIX OF SNOW AND SLEET NORTH OF A
LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TX TO EL DORADO AR...AND PREDOMINATLY SNOW
NORTH OF THE OK/TX LINE TO ROSSTON AR. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF I-20
COULD SEE A TRANSITION BACK TO LIQUID RAIN IF TEMPS CAN WARM
ENOUGH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. HOWEVER...WINTRY PRECIP IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ONCE AGAIN BY MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STORM
TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE ONE TENTH
OF AN INCH OR LESS AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE NEAR ONE
INCH NORTH OF I-30. ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE IF
ANY HEAVY BAND DEVELOPS. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT TRACK
DIFFERENCES OF LESS THAN 10 MILES MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES IN PRECIP TYPE OR AMOUNTS.

That is very conservative given this afternoon's models. Now I don't know what the Euro says, but all the others are bullish on a big event.

[TheProfessor]

If the models are over doing the warm nose some places in DFW could possibly go from having .5"-1" of sleet in their forecast to 4-7" of snow.

[gboudx]

Steve McCauley was in Maryland this week and wasn't able to run his Stat Method on this event. He indicated he would run it this weekend when he's back home. I'm looking forward to those results because his Stat Method has had a good history of forecasting these events; specifically with amounts and type.

[gpsnowman]

Finally a real threat to monitor. I happen to be off work until Tuesday so serious weather watching is going to take place. Should be fun here in Storm2K!

[dhweather]

Today would not be complete without a CAT 5 IN THE GULF reference.

[Texas Snowman]

Today would not be complete without a CAT 5 IN THE GULF reference.

I believe Katrina was about 175 mph at that point.

Maybe we'll have a Cat 5 winter storm this next week!

[Ntxw]

Not a lot to add from 18z GFS, dropping to the 20s with light precip continuing through Tuesday. 20s means the roads start becoming problematic even with light amounts. I think this will be a predominant sleet and maybe a little snow according to profiles in NTX

[aggiecutter]

18z GFS snowfall totals through noon Tuesday:

[txprog]

Not a lot to add from 18z GFS, dropping to the 20s with light precip continuing through Tuesday. 20s means the roads start becoming problematic even with light amounts. I think this will be a predominant sleet and maybe a little snow according to profiles in NTX

This is looking much like the the Feb 24 2003 ice storm. Very nasty, with 3-4" of ice, and very cold too.

[Ntxw]

Soundings from the 18z GFS suggest North Central Texas (I-20 corridor) may actually start out as snow/sleet mix (after rain) then go to all sleet as aloft warms a bit. But it's not all that much of a warm nose. Surface temperatures very cold. Anything that melts in the warmer layer will refreeze very quickly.



Texarkana is very cold at the surface but a little warmer aloft, may be a freezing rain and ice pellet/sleet mix. This sounding is a little south of Texarkana though so it may be a little colder towards the city. Regardless the model is showing a fairly significant event for both cases with temperatures dropping well into the mid and upper 20s which is a much bigger problem than if they were to hover from 30-32.



With winter storm watches already up, i'm guessing sometime late Saturday to early Sunday winter storm warnings may be needed for areas along I-30.

Euro crosses the heaviest QPF into sub <30F air right over the I-20 and especially I-30 corridor. As mentioned many times once you get below 30 especially around 27-28F that's when the roads become a sticking medium even if it was 90F the day before.

Both the GFS and Euro suggest upper 20s and snow later in the week.