Texas Winter 2013-2014

[weatherguy425]

I understand where everyone is coming from, and common sense can't be expected from people now-a-days. BUT, referring to smaller populations, such as Bryan/College Station, all people have to do is slow down and leave extra space. I was born and raised in Houston, and moved to Lubbock in 2011. I had to adjust my habits and be extra vigilant, but really not that big of a deal.

[weatherguy425]

And, while models have struggled all season with EPO/WPO forecasts - it is interesting to note the foretasted reversal to both + EPO, and + WPO after the first of the month. Lots to monitor in the coming week.

Not sure which model you're looking at but everything I've seen the negative EPO is forecast to continue through the next 15 days and the WPO is forecast to go into even more negative territory

Again, not saying I buy it. Forecasts have done this several times this winter - only to keep values negative.

EPO:


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WPO:


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[Rgv20]

Well that was fun while it lasted!

NWS Brownsville Afternoon Discussion..

SHORT TERM /NOW THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE
FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WE
RECEIVED A FEW REPORTS OF SNOW FLURRIES FROM ACROSS DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS /RIO GRANDE CITY TO ZAPATA/ THIS MORNING.

[South Texas Storms]

Afternoon discussions from Houston and Austin/SA are beginning to mention the potential winter weather event on Tuesday across the area. EWX said that this next trough could be as strong as this past one. Hopefully the models will trend wetter with this next trough!

[weatherdude1108]

Had to share this.

http://republicofaustin.com/2014/01/24/ ... ypse-2014/

[Tireman4]

Will we do this all over? HGX thinks we might. South Texas Storms alluded to this earlier...

FXUS64 KHGX 242112
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3PM...MOST AREAS HAVE HAD SFC TEMPS RISE TO THE 32-36F TEMP
RANGE WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MOST ICE/SNOW TO MELT. SEEMS THAT
MOST AREAS NORTH OF A BRENHAM TO CLEVELAND LINE HAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. AREAS NEAR LAKE LIVINGSTON HAD 3-4 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH A GENERAL 1-2 INCHES FROM NEAR MADISONVILLE TO HUNTSVILLE.
SNOW AMOUNTS LESS THAN AN INCH COMMON WEST OF THOSE ARES TOWARDS
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION. FARTHER SOUTH OF THAT LINE THERE WERE
GENERALLY 0.05 TO 0.15 INCHES OF ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ON
EXPOSED SURFACES. THIS HAS IMPACTED TRAVEL CONDITIONS AROUND
HOUSTON AND ON MAJOR ROADS WITH HIGHER OVERPASSES AND BRIDGES.
ALONG THE COAST ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.01-0.05 WERE MORE COMMON.

MIN TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD DROP INTO THE 20S AS CLOUD COVER THINS
OUT AND WINDS BECOME CALM WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR ANY STANDING WATER LEFT ON ROADS AND ELEVATED
STRUCTURES TO RE-FREEZE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TRAVEL CONDITIONS
COULD BECOME HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ESPECIALLY IF ANY
BLACK ICE DEVELOPS. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT TEMPS SHOULD RAPIDLY
INCREASE TOMORROW WITH MAX TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F.
SUNDAY SHOULD BE WARMER STILL. BUT THAT`S WHERE IT STOPS AS IT
LOOKS LIKE WE GO OVER THE HILL ON THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER
ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE POLAR VORTEX
OVER HUDSON BAY (THERE I SAID IT) WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALLOWING
FOR PROLONGED NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT THROUGH CANADA AND THE PLAINS.
THIS WILL AGAIN SUPPORT ANOTHER COLD OUTBREAK WITH CANADIAN/ARCTIC
TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DROP WITH 20S/30S FOR LOW TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY. THE CANADIAN MODEL HAS BEEN THROWING A WRENCH IN THINGS
ON TUE AND DEVELOPS QUITE A BIT OF PRECIPITATION OVER TX. LATEST
12Z GFS IS CATCHING ONTO THIS TREND WITH THE ECMWF DRY. GFS BRINGS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE PACIFIC UNDER THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE PAC NW. THIS SHORTWAVE IS TIMED TO REACH S TX BY 12Z TUE WITH
LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASING. GIVEN TEMPS IT IS POSSIBLE WE COULD
BE LOOKING AT ANOTHER WINTER PRECIP EVENT BUT SINCE THESE ARE THE
FIRST MODEL RUNS TO REALLY SHOW THIS SCENARIO...WILL KEEP JUST A
20 PERCENT OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE
MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR POSSIBLE FROZEN PRECIP. STILL A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY EVEN 5 DAYS OUT. SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OUT
QUICKLY ON TUE WITH DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS WED MORNING. MIN TEMPS
ON WED LOOK TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 20S AND COULD SEE THE NEED FOR A
HARD FREEZE WARNING WITH TEMPS BELOW 25F NORTH OF HOUSTON. HOUSTON
AREA CURRENTLY RIGHT AT THAT MARK.

[Tejas89]

FW discussion for later next week.. Rain please.

IT DOES APPEAR THAT A PATTERN SHIFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST
DEAMPLIFIES AND MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC AND MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS THE NATION. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A SURFACE LEE TROUGH
TO DEVELOP WHICH WILL BRING A RETURN OF SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH 60S RETURNING BY FRIDAY.

LOOKING BEYOND THIS FORECAST CYCLE...RAIN AND EVEN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
MAY RETURN TO NORTH TEXAS BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS
GULF MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH ENERGY FROM AN EASTWARD MOVING SHORT
WAVE TROUGH.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Had to share this.

http://republicofaustin.com/2014/01/24/ ... ypse-2014/

Just saw this elsewhere and just about fell off my chair laughting (mainly because after reading some postings here people really do mean it)! Now I'm not talking about your overpasses or highways but everything else is fair game!!!

[Ntxw]

Afternoon discussions from Houston and Austin/SA are beginning to mention the potential winter weather event on Tuesday across the area. EWX said that this next trough could be as strong as this past one. Hopefully the models will trend wetter with this next trough!

The next air mass looks deep and colder, it may send very low dewpoints deep into TX. We would need a strong unseen 5h low to ring out any moisture. I've been watching the euro bring 850s very low so while the surface doesn't reflect it yet but this may bring the coldest readings to the state to date. Moisture will likely be even further south with it due to its strength.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

NWS Corpus on aboard for more cold and potentially cold wet stuff

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...EXPECT A MILD SUNDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 AREA WIDE (MID 70S WEST) AS SWLY LOW LVL FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA. NEXT ARCTIC FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY MORNING
WITH ANOTHER STRONG PUSH OF COLD AIR THAT WILL LINGER THROUGH WED
NGT. STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN SCA FOR THE GULF WATERS MON
THROUGH TUE NGT WITH 8-10 FT SEAS. THESE WINDS WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE LAST FRONT. GFS/CANADIAN/NAM BRING A MID LVL
DISTURBANCE ACROSS THE REGION MON NGT-TUE RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF
LIGHT RAIN AND POTENTIALLY MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CWA AS THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE COOLS TO NEAR FREEZING. THE EC IS
FARTHER EAST WITH THIS DISTURBANCE AND KEEPS THE AREA DRY. THE GFS
IS THE WARMEST MODEL AND THE CANADIAN THE COLDEST. WE SPLIT THE
DIFFERENCE BUT TRENDED COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.
THE AIRMASS MODIFIES MID-LATE WEEK AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS ALOFT
AND WEAK RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. TEMPEATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE IN THE
WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NATION
DRAWING A MOIST SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ntxw

What's your thinking concerning what the latest gfs and cmc runs are showing regarding winter precip from south tx all along gulf coast? Our local office already has minimal chances of precip Monday and Tuesday.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville Discussion did not sound to exciting for next week but I just look at the updated forecast...Looks rather interesting!

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32.

[Portastorm]

As discussed earlier, EWX appears mildly interested in early next week. Interesting to see them issue an SPS this far out.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-250000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
353 PM CST FRI JAN 24 2014

...COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK...
...ANOTHER CHANCE OF OF WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE TUESDAY...

DESPITE ANOTHER BITTER COLD MORNING EXPECTED FOR EARLY
SATURDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL OFFER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR DAYTIME SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AND ANOTHER
ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EARLY MONDAY. THIS COLD AIR MASS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO MOST OF
NEXT WEEK...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTER PRECIPITATION WILL BE
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY.

THE DISTURBANCE FOR TUESDAY IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
MOSTLY LIGHT AND NON-ACCUMULATING PRECIPTATION AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...SLEET...OR SNOW. HOWEVER...THE PERSISTENCE OF THE COLD
TEMPERATURES AND MIXED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TUESDAY COULD STILL
HAVE ADVERSE IMPACTS ON PLANTS AND ANIMALS. STAY TUNED TO LOCAL
MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS ON THIS WINTER
WEATHER SITUATION.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Of course as soon as nws offices start issuing statements and forecasts with the "s" word the 18z gfs says not so fast and looks bone dry with all moisture out in the central gulf. Hopefully by Sunday mornings runs it will be back with a vengeance

[orangeblood]

For entertainment purposes only but with a side note that most extended guidance point in this direction

[gpsnowman]

That is a beautiful map! My goodness, what will it take to get some good moisture to go along with these fronts? Yes, our southern friends just had a winter episode but I have never seen so many dry fronts. The fronts this winter have been great for cold. Extremely dry air with several teens. The two are bound to hook up at some point for a massive snowstorm. One can dream.

[dhweather]

For entertainment purposes only but with a side note that most extended guidance point in this direction

http://models.weatherbell.com/gfs/20140 ... ram_47.png

That's impressive, but it's at 360 hours.

[BigB0882]

That is an insane map, never seen anything like that. That map is awfully close to our first real cold outbreak of the season where SELA was just on the edge of the cold and didn't get quite the cold as places just a little to our west. That ridge seems to be back, keeping GA and the immediate East Coast warm but the cold air manages to just push through LA. It still shows us in -15C anomalies which is, what, about 30 degrees below normal? Yikes.

[Texas Snowman]

That's February 1899 stuff.

[richtrav]

That's February 1899 stuff.

Nah, the high associated with it maxes out around 1047mb, watch the progged temps on tonight's run back off.