Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gboudx]

Any chance of evaporative cooling dissolving that warm'ish layer.

[Tcu101]

Any chance of evaporative cooling dissolving that warm'ish layer.

Everything look pretty saturated already if I'm reading the Skew correctly

[Ntxw]

Any chance of evaporative cooling dissolving that warm'ish layer.

It is a small possibility but I wouldn't count on it. What is more likely is that models could be overestimating the warm layer, it's not incredibly warm over the metroplex and end up with more snow and sleet vs just sleet. But the general consensus is sleet as the dominant type here for us, with freezing rain closer to central Texas as wxman57 mentioned Waco southward.

[Ntxw]

Has anyone heard any forecasted accumulations yet up around the Red River, let's say right around I44?

Areas near the Falls and along the Red River will probably see mostly snow and several inches 3-5" into the upper teens per the GFS.

[Ntxw]

So why is this happening? Joe Bastardi and Wxman57 both stated a little over a week ago of the pattern shift at 500mb. The EPO is tanking and ridging has moved offshore out of the west and poking into Alaska at the same time the PNA has decided to go negative and allowing a storm to dig west of us into the Great Basin.





Kudos.

[TexasF6]

So, my question, is this? What is the source region for our Arctic attack? Where is it coming from? Exactly? I am not impressed by temps in Western Canada, nor Alaska, although North Asia seems to be in massive cold air creep mode across the Bering Straits? I want Charlie Brown to kick hell outta this football!!! I need answers. Someone. Anyone. #StillTeamSnow

[Ntxw]

So, my question, is this? What is the source region for our Arctic attack? Where is it coming from? Exactly? I am not impressed by temps in Western Canada, nor Alaska, although North Asia seems to be in massive cold air creep mode across the Bering Straits? I want Charlie Brown to kick hell outta this football!!! I need answers. Someone. Anyone. #StillTeamSnow

Central Canada. It's not a frigid arctic blast, core of cold is moving into the Great Lakes. But -PNA is pulling the trough back west and extending just enough cold from Hudson Bay southwestward into the trof for mischief. The way the 500 ridge is set up over Alaska and position is ideal to pull it back.

[TexasF6]

So, my question, is this? What is the source region for our Arctic attack? Where is it coming from? Exactly? I am not impressed by temps in Western Canada, nor Alaska, although North Asia seems to be in massive cold air creep mode across the Bering Straits? I want Charlie Brown to kick hell outta this football!!! I need answers. Someone. Anyone. #StillTeamSnow

Central Canada. It's not a frigid arctic blast, core of cold is moving into the Great Lakes. But -PNA is pulling the trough back west and extending just enough cold from Hudson Bay southwestward into the trof for mischief. The way the 500 ridge is set up over Alaska and position is ideal to pull it back.

TY NWTX!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Let's rock!!!! But everyone remember your winter wx safety rules and be safe while we rock!!!

[Texas Snowman]

So, my question, is this? What is the source region for our Arctic attack? Where is it coming from? Exactly? I am not impressed by temps in Western Canada, nor Alaska, although North Asia seems to be in massive cold air creep mode across the Bering Straits? I want Charlie Brown to kick hell outta this football!!! I need answers. Someone. Anyone. #StillTeamSnow

Central Canada. It's not a frigid arctic blast, core of cold is moving into the Great Lakes. But -PNA is pulling the trough back west and extending just enough cold from Hudson Bay southwestward into the trof for mischief. The way the 500 ridge is set up over Alaska and position is ideal to pull it back.

May not be too frigid here as this comes in through the backdoor, but I'd say it is impressively frigid to our NE and East.

Low temps were below zero at all reporting stations in a handful of those states (Michigan, Ohio, Indiana, etc.). In Michigan, I saw that one spot was -39 while it went down to -32 in central Kentucky. It was 10 degrees this morning near Greenville, S.C. where the first round of the Bassmaster Classic fishing tournament was held. And it was 24 degrees in NE Florida this morning. That's pretty impressive in my book even if it doesn't make it all the way to North Texas.

[TheProfessor]

21z SREF is wetter for DFW showing a mean of .6" instead of .4" That's almost 2 inches of sleet if we use the 1:3 ratio, though because of the smaller Warm nose I wonder if the ratio would be closer to a 1:4. If the models are overdoing the Warm nose we could see some pretty good snow total.

[Brent]

I'd love for this sleet storm to turn into a snowstorm even if its just a burst briefly or something lol

[gboudx]

From jeff:

Potential for freezing rain across the northern portions of SE TX Monday-Tuesday.

Main focus over the next 72 hours will be the developing potential for a winter storm to affect TX early next week. Strong arctic cold front will move across the region on Sunday with rapidly falling temperatures. Highs in the 60’s and 70’s prior to the frontal passage will tumble into the 30’s by Sunday evening. Latest guidance especially the GFS is trending colder and colder and now only has a high Monday of 33 at College Station and 38 at Houston. An upper level trough will remain back across the SW US allowing significant warm air advection to develop over top of the very cold surface dome. Temperatures only a few thousand above the surface will warm significantly into the 40’s while the surface layer will remain trapped in the 30’s. Forecast soundings maintain this fairly significant warm nose aloft through much of Monday and into Monday night, but slowly cool the surface temperature to near or below freezing north of a line from College Station to Livingston Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Overrunning pattern will commence post frontal passage on Sunday and continue into at least early Tuesday. A very cold light rain and drizzle is likely Monday into early Tuesday with amounts of .10-.25 of an inch possible across the region.

The main concern is when and where surface temperatures may fall to or below freezing and this presents the potential for freezing rain and ice accumulation. Current guidance suggest the freezing line Monday night will reach into SE TX from College Station to Livingston but could creep as far south as a Brenham to Conroe line. Some of this will depend on if the models are handling the cold air correctly and how much ice/sleet accumulates over N TX Monday.

Current thinking is to change light rain over to freezing rain Monday evening from College Station to Livingston with some ice accumulation possible. Think ground temperatures will be warm from the recent warmth, but elevated objects will likely accumulate some ice with surface temperatures in the 30-32 range. Road conditions will be more problematic as experience last year suggest you really need to get down into the 28-30 range for ice accumulation especially with “warm rain” falling from the warmer air aloft. Ice on bridges and overpasses could be possible from Monday evening into Tuesday morning from College Station to Livingston. Way too early for any estimates on ice accumulation over those northern counties especially since we are over 72 hours out still and much will change over the weekend.

Metro Houston/Harris County:
Currently model guidance suggests temperatures will be above freezing across Harris County Monday night into Tuesday morning which would keep all rain liquid with no ice accumulation. Will need to continue to closely monitor temperature trends over the weekend in the event models trend colder moving the freezing line closer to the metro area.

[Brent]

GFS looks snowy on Friday again for DFW

[Brent]

WITH REGARDS TO THE UPCOMING WINTER WEATHER EVENT...NO CHANGES ARE
BEING MADE AT THIS TIME TO THE CURRENT FORECAST AND PRODUCTS
BUT THE WATCH. IF THE REMAINDER OF THE 00Z DATA SUGGEST FROZEN
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY...THE WATCH MAY HAVE TO
BE EXTENDED BEYOND MONDAY WITH EITHER THE OVERNIGHT FORECAST
PACKAGE OR THE SATURDAY PACKAGE.

[TheProfessor]

Things just keep getting more interesting, It would be awesome, though not likely, if our temperatures were cold enough where the winter storms connected, Frz Rain/Sleet/ Snow Sun-Tue, Frz Rain/Sleet/ Snow Wed, Sleet/Snow Late Thur-Saturday.

[Brent]

Where is everyone?

Here... this will liven things up An 8-day snow map... not something out in lala land

[Ntxw]

Glacier in the Southern Plains.

[Ntxw]

Euro and GFS are locked in step now over the weekend. Probably a significant winter storm for everyone along I-20 and north. Looks like Winter Storm Warnings should be issued soon tomorrow night or Sunday.

[Texas Snowman]

Where is everyone?

Here... this will liven things up An 8-day snow map... not something out in lala land

If - IF - that were to materialize, I don't think I've ever seen such extensive snow cover across the Lower 48.

[Texas Snowman]

Where is everyone?

Here... this will liven things up An 8-day snow map... not something out in lala land

If this were earlier in the day, you KNOW that two things would happen:

1. Someone would tell us that can't/won't/isn't happening.

and

2. CAT 5 IN THE GULF!!!!