Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Texas Snow
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5041 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:06 am

Boo on the euro for storm 2, but is still early to catch up the the others I hope.

NAM for Sun/Mon has 6 for Dallas but 2 for FW. Hill country looks good too. Houston even gets a little.

Oh my, those snow totals for DFW round 2 on the 6z GFS. Oh my. Please, oh please 8-)

The icon ends at 120 as the storm is still ramping up with another 4” already down Dallas. :eek:
Last edited by Texas Snow on Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:26 am, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5042 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 6:14 am

Good luck to anyone who has to hit the road today!!! Stay safe..
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5043 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:26 am

Interesting thread we had back in 2009. It was about the 1899 freeze and has some pertinent information given what’s coming up:

viewtopic.php?t=104474
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5044 Postby WacoWx » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:28 am

I really appreciate those of you who post throughout the night. You’re the first thing I read in the morning.

Today is my last day to try to prep my house for potentially sub-zero temps. My wife thinks I’m crazy. I guess she COULD be right, but there’s no such thing as being TOO prepared.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5045 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:35 am

Woke up to a LOT of snow flying around, 14°F
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5046 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:41 am

Does anyone here have the 24-Kuchera Ratio Snowfall loop for the 0z GFS model? Pivotal Weather scrapped it for some reason . . .

EDIT: Found it on COD Meteorology, question is no longer needed
Last edited by Iceresistance on Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5047 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:44 am

ICON challenges the all time record low for Texas of -23 Tuesday morning between Wichita Falls and Perryton. GFS isn't as cold but more widespread with sub zero for much of the state. Huge snows still on GFS for next week.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5048 Postby Texas Snow » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:52 am

Ralph's Weather wrote:ICON challenges the all time record low for Texas of -23 Tuesday morning between Wichita Falls and Perryton. GFS isn't as cold but more widespread with sub zero for much of the state. Huge snows still on GFS for next week.


Interesting that the ICON which has a -23 for Wichita Falls has a -1 for Dallas, not too far away. Yet the GFS has Wichita Falls at -9 and Dallas at -6

I almost typed that the GFS would be more believable, and then I thought, what world are we living in?
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5049 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 7:56 am

Just got the Forecast from KWTV-News 9 at 6:50 AM

12-16 inches of snow, 4-6 FEET snowdrifts
The amount of snow will stick around for DAYS

The Snowfall Ratios are going to be closer to 25:1 & 30:1 (Which is almost unheard of in Oklahoma, they are normally 10:1)

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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5050 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:02 am

With all this cold how are the polar ice caps looking? I can't seem to find the sea ice NOAA site in my bookmarks.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5051 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:02 am

The GFS has performed best over the past week with this setup, so I'm all in!

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5052 Postby goCoogs » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:04 am

Why has the Houston NWS office not even issued a hazardous weather outlook? Ice is being reported on the roads in Magnolia. There's gotta be ice in College Station but not so much as a hazardous weather outlook. This is wholly irresponsible.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5053 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:11 am

As many of you, I am an "old timer" on this board. I also am a winter weather fan. Again, no surprise to those of you who know me. LOL. It is not hyperbole to suggest that the period we currently are in is historic. I have lived in the Austin area for 36 years and if things play out as predicted, I have never witnessed this combination of multiple wintry precip events and historic cold temperatures. This truly will be, for many of us, legendary. Epic. Use whatever descriptor you prefer.

Today will probably be the last day folks have a chance to get out and about (if temps go above freezing) to secure any needed groceries or prep items. Encourage loved ones and friends you know to do that. You do that too! Because starting tomorrow, we here know that much of Texas will be encrusted in ice and snow for days. Again ... once in a lifetime series of events. My unsolicited advice to all y'all is to get out and enjoy it as much as safely possible. Yes, being on here and yammering on about model runs and conjecture is fun ... but don't lose sight of the historic nature of this period. Really ... it probably won't happen in your lifetime or mine again. So try to enjoy it and give yourself a little break from the computer and online participation.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5054 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:15 am

Portastorm wrote:As many of you, I am an "old timer" on this board. I also am a winter weather fan. Again, no surprise to those of you who know me. LOL. It is not hyperbole to suggest that the period we currently are in is historic. I have lived in the Austin area for 36 years and if things play out as predicted, I have never witnessed this combination of multiple wintry precip events and historic cold temperatures. This truly will be, for many of us, legendary. Epic. Use whatever descriptor you prefer.

Today will probably be the last day folks have a chance to get out and about (if temps go above freezing) to secure any needed groceries or prep items. Encourage loved ones and friends you know to do that. You do that too! Because starting tomorrow, we here know that much of Texas will be encrusted in ice and snow for days. Again ... once in a lifetime series of events. My unsolicited advice to all y'all is to get out and enjoy it as much as safely possible. Yes, being on here and yammering on about model runs and conjecture is fun ... but don't lose sight of the historic nature of this period. Really ... it probably won't happen in your lifetime or mine again. So try to enjoy it and give yourself a little break from the computer and online participation.


Yes, I've personally thought that something like this would never happen in a La Nina winter

I've went through the 2009 Christmas Blizzard in Missouri, took us 8-10 hours to get home (I-44 was just only 1 lane open) and 12 inches of snow on the ground . . .
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5055 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:16 am

0z GFS

Image

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall (COD Meteorology)

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5056 Postby WinterMax » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:21 am

Portastorm wrote:As many of you, I am an "old timer" on this board. I also am a winter weather fan. Again, no surprise to those of you who know me. LOL. It is not hyperbole to suggest that the period we currently are in is historic. I have lived in the Austin area for 36 years and if things play out as predicted, I have never witnessed this combination of multiple wintry precip events and historic cold temperatures. This truly will be, for many of us, legendary. Epic. Use whatever descriptor you prefer.

Today will probably be the last day folks have a chance to get out and about (if temps go above freezing) to secure any needed groceries or prep items. Encourage loved ones and friends you know to do that. You do that too! Because starting tomorrow, we here know that much of Texas will be encrusted in ice and snow for days. Again ... once in a lifetime series of events. My unsolicited advice to all y'all is to get out and enjoy it as much as safely possible. Yes, being on here and yammering on about model runs and conjecture is fun ... but don't lose sight of the historic nature of this period. Really ... it probably won't happen in your lifetime or mine again. So try to enjoy it and give yourself a little break from the computer and online participation.


Hope you all enjoy the white stuff. I am 30 miles south of Alexandria La. And I am hoping for a bust of this forecast, hoping I'm just far enough south to miss the ice storm. I like snow, but literally am deeply concerned about ice and pipes bursting. Fingers crossed.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5057 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:31 am

6z GFS

Image

24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall (COD Meteorology has been found to be MUCH faster than Pivotal Weather for the GFS model GIF download)

Image
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5058 Postby goCoogs » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:41 am

goCoogs wrote:Why has the Houston NWS office not even issued a hazardous weather outlook? Ice is being reported on the roads in Magnolia. There's gotta be ice in College Station but not so much as a hazardous weather outlook. This is wholly irresponsible.


And KIAH Ch. 39 just said they have a crew in route to a report of a multi-car pile-up in Magnolia. Praying it's only minor.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5059 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:44 am

Still snowing outside, 13°F
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5060 Postby GeauxTigers » Fri Feb 12, 2021 8:46 am

gpsnowman wrote:Good luck to anyone who has to hit the road today!!! Stay safe..

Thanks. My varsity girls bb team has a playoff game at 5. Not looking forward to being on roads & on a bus.
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