Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Ntxw]

You think you've figured it out then mother nature kicks it up a notch.

Latest NAM

[txtiff]

Okay I am really confused. It looks like you guys think another winter storm is coming next week. Is that correct?

[Ntxw]

Okay I am really confused. It looks like you guys think another winter storm is coming next week. Is that correct?

For the East Coast. Oklahoma and West Texas might get snow\sleet out of it as of right now. The change was the models have slightly trended colder. For the DFW area it went from a mild rain to a chilly rain and now expect a cold rain. Still subject to change.

Edit: Cloud cover never lifted as forecasted so still chilly and raw today sitting in the mid 40s.

[txtiff]

Okay I am really confused. It looks like you guys think another winter storm is coming next week. Is that correct?

For the East Coast. Oklahoma and West Texas might get snow\sleet out of it as of right now. The change was the models have slightly trended colder. For the DFW area it went from a mild rain to a chilly rain and now expect a cold rain. Still subject to change.

Edit: Cloud cover never lifted as forecasted so still chilly and raw today sitting in the mid 40s.

THANK YOU

[wxman57]

Although some indicators (AO, NAO, stratospheric warming) do indicate the potential of additional Arctic outbreaks sometime in the future, current long range guidance is not indicating any new cold air coming out of Canada for the next few weeks. The GFS is forecasting 3 west Gulf lows to develop over the next 15 days (at 6-day increments). The European is similar to the GFS in its prediction of several west Gulf lows, but it, too, forecasts a pattern that would allow LESS cold out of Canada over the next 5-10 days. Note that the 12Z Euro is significantly different from the 00Z run as far as the 7-10 day pattern over northern Canada. The 00Z run would have brought additional cold air into the northern U.S. I suspect what actually happens may be somewhere in between the two runs.

Without much new Canadian air coming down well south into Texas, there could still be the potential for winter weather across the Southern Plains, but it may be a bit farther north than last week's event. The Texas Panhandle and central to northern Oklahoma, north into Kansas and Nebraska would be targets, but probably not Dallas-Fort Worth area and southward.

[Texas Snowman]

That may end up being true (no Canadian air coming south of the Red River anytime soon), but the 14-day temp outlooks are for below normal readings, so it sure doesn't look like it is going to be swimsuit weather either.

And perhaps my memory is faulty, but our temp readings at the North Texas Regional Airport (old Grayson County Airport) never got out of the 30s for a time period that began shortly after the frontal passage late last week until today at 11:30 a.m.

That's something that was supposed to have occurred quite a bit earlier...according to the models.

[orangeblood]

Although some indicators (AO, NAO, stratospheric warming) do indicate the potential of additional Arctic outbreaks sometime in the future, current long range guidance is not indicating any new cold air coming out of Canada for the next few weeks. The GFS is forecasting 3 west Gulf lows to develop over the next 15 days (at 6-day increments). The European is similar to the GFS in its prediction of several west Gulf lows, but it, too, forecasts a pattern that would allow LESS cold out of Canada over the next 5-10 days. Note that the 12Z Euro is significantly different from the 00Z run as far as the 7-10 day pattern over northern Canada. The 00Z run would have brought additional cold air into the northern U.S. I suspect what actually happens may be somewhere in between the two runs.

Without much new Canadian air coming down well south into Texas, there could still be the potential for winter weather across the Southern Plains, but it may be a bit farther north than last week's event. The Texas Panhandle and central to northern Oklahoma, north into Kansas and Nebraska would be targets, but probably not Dallas-Fort Worth area and southward.

The Canadians and Japanese beg to differ on next weeks pattern. The Japanese model, in particular, has the PV coming into the upper Midwest dumping Artic air straight down into Texas. I don't think we can completely rule out Arctic Air for next week quite yet.

[Portastorm]

The 0z Canadian today looked a lot like the 0z GFS and showed some deep troughs over the Southern Plains with Canadian air. The 12z Euro though was less enthusiastic.

Orangeblood, I don't know about that Japenese model. I know Accuweather's Joe Bastardi is always talking about it (the "JMA") and using it as reference but I have always wondered how well it verifies and how it compares to the Euro, GFS, and Canadian.

[Ntxw]

Although some indicators (AO, NAO, stratospheric warming) do indicate the potential of additional Arctic outbreaks sometime in the future, current long range guidance is not indicating any new cold air coming out of Canada for the next few weeks. The GFS is forecasting 3 west Gulf lows to develop over the next 15 days (at 6-day increments). The European is similar to the GFS in its prediction of several west Gulf lows, but it, too, forecasts a pattern that would allow LESS cold out of Canada over the next 5-10 days. Note that the 12Z Euro is significantly different from the 00Z run as far as the 7-10 day pattern over northern Canada. The 00Z run would have brought additional cold air into the northern U.S. I suspect what actually happens may be somewhere in between the two runs.

Without much new Canadian air coming down well south into Texas, there could still be the potential for winter weather across the Southern Plains, but it may be a bit farther north than last week's event. The Texas Panhandle and central to northern Oklahoma, north into Kansas and Nebraska would be targets, but probably not Dallas-Fort Worth area and southward.

Waiting at the bus stop with snow > waiting at the bus stop with cold, wet, dreary rain. And with the wet pattern doesn't look like pleasant warm, sunny weather is here to stay just yet so it might as well snow vs the cold and damp!

[gofrogs2]

I like the 18z gfs for wintry weather in dfw for next week and beyond.

[Portastorm]

Yeah so does Larry Cosgrove. You North Texans should read his blog tonight!

[msstateguy83]

where is his blog porta sorry iam not a regular lol i know i should be what is the link

[srainhoutx]

where is his blog porta sorry iam not a regular lol i know i should be what is the link

Just do a search...

[Ntxw]

Here you go msstateguy

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m2d1-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-And-Vicinity-Tuesday-February-2-2010

***DELETED PER AUTHOR'S REQUEST. POTENTIAL COPYRIGHT INFRINGEMENT***

This is Stephanie - Everyone, PLEASE respect his wishes. Links to his articles are fine.

[gboudx]

Looking forward to that special update tomorrow.

[srainhoutx]

Here you go msstateguy

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m2d1-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-And-Vicinity-Tuesday-February-2-2010

I think folks can read for themselves.

[iorange55]

Here you go msstateguy

http://www.examiner.com/x-3775-Houston-Weather-Examiner~y2010m2d1-Weather-Forecast-For-Houston-And-Vicinity-Tuesday-February-2-2010

I think folks can read for themselves.

[Ntxw]

Hmm I thought it was ok as long as you gave credit where it is due, but alright. Still quite interesting since the models have been changing since they had the thaw elongated from about a week ago.

[iorange55]

Hmm I thought it was ok as long as you gave credit where it is due, but alright. Still quite interesting since the models have been changing since they had the thaw elongated from about a week ago.

Probably just having one of those days. But It does look interesting i'm hoping for one more winter event here before the heat comes.

[Texas Snowman]

Hmm I thought it was ok as long as you gave credit where it is due, but alright. Still quite interesting since the models have been changing since they had the thaw elongated from about a week ago.

Probably just having one of those days. But It does look interesting i'm hoping for one more winter event here before the heat comes.

Actually, I'm hoping for two or three more winter events before the dreaded triple digit heat hits this summer!