Texas Winter 2020-2021

[dhweather]

A peek inside the Portastorm Weather Center

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Woke up to 30 and freezing drizzle in Magnolia!
Wow not forecasted

[lukem]

18 and freezing fog in Midland. Much colder than forecasted.

[Parker_County1]

On this day (February 12) in 1899, at 7 a.m., it was 11° in CC and Galveston, 5° in San Antonio, -8 in Dallas, -16 in OKC.

[bubba hotep]

A blend of overnight ensemble qpf is about 0.5" for DFW with the 1st system. Given ratios, we are probably looking at 6"+ of snow area wide with locally higher amounts driven by hard to predict mesoscale process. Still a long way to go on the 2nd storm but that will be the difference between an interesting week of wx and a historic week.

[ztshanklin]

On this day (February 12) in 1899, at 7 a.m., it was 11° in CC and Galveston, 5° in San Antonio, -8 in Dallas, -16 in OKC.

There's something about this week in winter weather history. Believe this is the same week as the foot of snow in 2010 in DFW

[kassi]

Why has the Houston NWS office not even issued a hazardous weather outlook? Ice is being reported on the roads in Magnolia. There's gotta be ice in College Station but not so much as a hazardous weather outlook. This is wholly irresponsible.

And KIAH Ch. 39 just said they have a crew in route to a report of a multi-car pile-up in Magnolia. Praying it's only minor.

Looks like 13 vehicles involved due to icy conditions.

https://abc13.com/houston-traffic-in-te ... 5/10333074

[HockeyTx82]

On this day (February 12) in 1899, at 7 a.m., it was 11° in CC and Galveston, 5° in San Antonio, -8 in Dallas, -16 in OKC.

There's something about this week in winter weather history. Believe this is the same week as the foot of snow in 2010 in DFW

This is just the sweet spot I guess. Sort of like we have two or so weeks of most likely severe weather in Spring and heat in then summer.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

On this day (February 12) in 1899, at 7 a.m., it was 11° in CC and Galveston, 5° in San Antonio, -8 in Dallas, -16 in OKC.

There's something about this week in winter weather history. Believe this is the same week as the foot of snow in 2010 in DFW

It is, i actually drove into that storm. Spent the weekend there. Awesome to see.

[rwfromkansas]

As many of you, I am an "old timer" on this board. I also am a winter weather fan. Again, no surprise to those of you who know me. LOL. It is not hyperbole to suggest that the period we currently are in is historic. I have lived in the Austin area for 36 years and if things play out as predicted, I have never witnessed this combination of multiple wintry precip events and historic cold temperatures. This truly will be, for many of us, legendary. Epic. Use whatever descriptor you prefer.

Today will probably be the last day folks have a chance to get out and about (if temps go above freezing) to secure any needed groceries or prep items. Encourage loved ones and friends you know to do that. You do that too! Because starting tomorrow, we here know that much of Texas will be encrusted in ice and snow for days. Again ... once in a lifetime series of events. My unsolicited advice to all y'all is to get out and enjoy it as much as safely possible. Yes, being on here and yammering on about model runs and conjecture is fun ... but don't lose sight of the historic nature of this period. Really ... it probably won't happen in your lifetime or mine again. So try to enjoy it and give yourself a little break from the computer and online participation.

Yes, I've personally thought that something like this would never happen in a La Nina winter

I've went through the 2009 Christmas Blizzard in Missouri, took us 8-10 hours to get home (I-44 was just only 1 lane open) and 12 inches of snow on the ground . . .

I thought I remembered driving in this storm but nope, it was a different one, 2013 for me at Christmas also. I do recall hoping for Abilene snow in 2009 and following boards like this. Since I typed most of this post I will go ahead and share it. Lol. Anyway, the 2013 storm was incredible. We lived in West Texas and went up through OK to get to Kansas.

After research, I decided we could leave and get up there barely beating the storm.

Um, nope. It came in quicker and more powerful. OK was ice past OKC, but ok enough. Had to stop to de-ice the car multiple times. Then, we hit Wichita, KS. Pure blizzard. The worst I have ever seen except once in college. I only had 40 miles to go but it was a trek of 2 hours. Heavy snow warning, the plows couldn’t keep up. We stopped to push snow off twice. We only were forecast to get 3 inches but got 13 and our Prius literally snowplow pushed snow in front as we drove into the culdesac of my parent’s house.

Nobody cares, but I had to share since was mostly written, not deleting now. Lol.

Love everybody posting memories.

[Iceresistance]

GFS-Para is out of control right now!

0z


24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall


Grand total


6z


24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall


Grand Total

[rwfromkansas]

Very glad the 6z Para-GFS is dropping south the heavier snow line, possibly less mixing?. The cut-off was in DFW IMBY on the 0z. Hopefully the Euro gets in line and NAM gives me more than 2 inches in the initial storm.

Not sure what you can say about the regular GFS. Epic run. To quote George from Seinfeld, “I think it moved.”

[Parker_County1]

Snow flurries in Weatherford now. These are not "snow grains" like yesterday. These are real snowflakes. Just very small ones.

[Iceresistance]

Final post before 12z Models

0z CMC



24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall

[utpmg]

Hmm, seems a forecast bust at KATT? I saw 31 forecast low last night, woke up to 27 at the house and everything frozen solid here. Mabry decided to stop reporting now, too.

[orangeblood]

NAM beginning to come around to the Globals, particularly the GFS

Snow Totals


Sleet Totals


FRZ Rain Totals

[Ntxw]

NAM beginning to come around to the Globals, particularly the GFS

Snow Totals
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/total_snow_kuchera/1613131200/1613433600-BtKUOw7fqD4.png

Sleet Totals
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/sleet_total/1613131200/1613433600-D6Yp7EOycTE.png

FRZ Rain Totals
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/frzr_total/1613131200/1613433600-B0CdsPLKuLA.png

The 12z NAM is a long duration event for us given most snow events here don't go for more than 6-12 hours.

Given how cold temps already are snow totals could pile up quickly. A few days ago TheProfessor and Tolakram made note to us all how Cincy was overperforming. What was a few inches became 8-12", it just snowed and snowed. This is what the pattern is capable of, consistently beating out the models to the more impressive solutions.

[Tammie]

Snow grains falling in Sherman AND Denton!!! My deck in Sherman is slowly turning white. How is this possible????

[DFW Stormwatcher]

I’ve prepared as much as I can, and I hope others do. All of my students today said “it won’t really snow” and their parents are doing nothing, which scares me. I couldn’t convince the wife to get a generator so I will just hope power stays on with our buried lines and have contingencies if I had to move us for heat.

It is funny you say this. Obviously, being here I'm a weather, snow, tornado enthusiast that has moderate experience in weather for many years. I mention things I see to my wife, but I'm careful about what I say not jumping the gun on things and try to keep things realistic. So, she mentioned to her co workers that they may make preparations and get things ready particularly with the icing and dangerous temperatures and all of her co-workers do is joke and say nothing is going to happen, won't be that bad, blah blah blah. Really discouraging when I think it is probable at this point that the weather could be really bad.

And they will the ones calling 911 and wondering why they can't get help. It's called preparation. Sure, did I buy an extra case of water, food and propane this week? Yes, I don't hope to us it but I've got my wife and two young kids to take care of. I'm by no means a prepper. Best case I'm stocked up on some items I'll use in time. Worst case I need them to get through a few days without power or running water and cold temperatures.

Now if they say the Cowboys will win another Super Bowl, that I see not happening for sure

P.S. make sure you cars are filled up incase you need to get out and get stranded.

I'm kind of glad for the non preparers because it was hard finding spigot covers and pipe insulation/tape as it is.

I did meet some similar souls while I was buying the supplies to winterize my house. There was at least 4 or 5 people at the pipe insulation area in Home Depot in Keller and most of the supplies were already sold out.

My wife still is skeptical that it'll snow as much as predicted, but that makes sense as many busts as we've had over the years.

[orangeblood]

NAM beginning to come around to the Globals, particularly the GFS

Snow Totals
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/total_snow_kuchera/1613131200/1613433600-BtKUOw7fqD4.png

Sleet Totals
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/sleet_total/1613131200/1613433600-D6Yp7EOycTE.png

FRZ Rain Totals
https://images.weatherbell.com/model/nam-218-all/scentus/frzr_total/1613131200/1613433600-B0CdsPLKuLA.png

The 12z NAM is a long duration event for us given most snow events here don't go for more than 6-12 hours.

Given how cold temps already are snow totals could pile up quickly. A few days ago TheProfessor and Tolakram made note to us all how Cincy was overperforming. What was a few inches became 8-12", it just snowed and snowed. This is what the pattern is capable of, consistently beating out the models to the more impressive solutions.

Looking at the forecast soundings and assuming too warm, the sleet accumulation looks very suspect so fair to assume these snow totals are underdone