Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Stratton23]

Euro says hold your horses, significantly colder and a major winter storm for central/ se texas

[orangeblood]

Euro says hold youre horses, significantly colder and a major winter storm for central/ se texas

Interesting model battle if Euro ENS backs up its Op, you obviously know who I personally think will win that one!!

Euro locked in at 5h around the 150-160 hr mark from last weeks storm, still have a ways to go

[txtwister78]

Yeah lets hope that Euro run for the sake of the grid is out to lunch. That's 2021 vibes there and I'm not one to overhype obviously but thankfully we're still 6-7 days out so hopefully that changes because putting that kind of cold into the entire state with widespread winter precip would be tough on resources.

[wxman22]

[Stratton23]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

[txtwister78]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

Yeah if it was just about the snow that might be one thing, but once you get into those temp ranges deep into the state, not to mention the amount of freezing rain it has along the coast into deep south Texas, even if the grid held, you would still have localized power outages with that setup so no bueno for me. Too much negative impact on that run there.

[gpsnowman]

https://i.ibb.co/Gsq6FDm/index-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/jhjrNVd/index-10.png

Looks fantastic. At what temp does it show while snowing?

[Stratton23]

After comparing the ensembles , ifs pretty clear the GEPS/ EPS are the most consistent here with the cold and a decent precipitation chance, every run to run has been consistent with the 500 mb pattern, meanwhile the GEFS is showing a very clear progressive biacy, therefore the GEFS doesnt get much weight in this pattern in my opinion

[orangeblood]

Yeah lets hope that Euro run for the sake of the grid is out to lunch. That's 2021 vibes there and I'm not one to overhype obviously but thankfully we're still 6-7 days out so hopefully that changes because putting that kind of cold into the entire state with widespread winter precip would be tough on resources.

No doubt, that Euro run close to a 2021 redux. Major state infrastructure strain

[txtwister78]

EPS continues to look colder. Scary looking run at this range which would give credence to the operational

[wxman22]

The 12Z GFS

[wxman22]

https://i.ibb.co/Gsq6FDm/index-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/jhjrNVd/index-10.png

Looks fantastic. At what temp does it show while snowing?

Temps in the low 20's and teens in North Texas during the duration of the winterstorm fwiw.

[gpsnowman]

https://i.ibb.co/Gsq6FDm/index-11.png

https://i.ibb.co/jhjrNVd/index-10.png

Looks fantastic. At what temp does it show while snowing?

Temps in the low 20's and teens in North Texas during the duration of the winterstorm fwiw.

Wow thanks. That would do it.

[Ntxw]

Yeah that 12z Euro run would be major societal impacts if it happened. That's the thing in my post earlier it may not be one big shot but like 21 cold shots before that lay ice and snow and then the bigger cold. Yikes and not lalaland but roughly a week away.

[orangeblood]

A rare site from any operational….Major US Ice storm from the LGV along the entire gulf coast to Florida. Wild!

[wxman22]

It's coming ya'll... It's just a question of how cold.

[txtwister78]

I'll say this if the GEFS in future runs begins to start going the way of the EPS and GEPS, then look out because as it stands today those two are alarmingly cold for ensemble runs.

[Stratton23]

orangeblood yuckkkk, ice storm= no bueno lol, hard pass lol

[Ntxw]

-15C to -18C in NTX, -10C to -13C in S-C and SE TX is pretty darn cold for 850mb temps.

[Ntxw]

Euro for DFW - Low single digits, some below zero spots.

Austin/San Antonio - Mid to upper single digits.

Houston - Upper single digits.