Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 00Z run):

32–13...(48–B03)...B02...0.94...Amarillo
40–24...(52–14).....17......0.12...Austin Camp Mabry
36–20...(51–10).....07......0.35...Dallas
41–27...(54–18).....16......0.16...Houston
31–13...(47–B01)...B03...0.59...Oklahoma City
31–13...(46–B01)...B01...0.59...Tulsa

Only three of these stations at the 10th percentile would break or get very close to the existing record lows.

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The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 12Z run):

39–15...(50–05)...B02...0.28...Amarillo
43–30...(55–20)...17.....0.11...Austin Camp Mabry
40–27...(53–20)...07.....0.08...Dallas
44–36...(55–29)...16.....0.07...Houston
35–20...(48–12)...B03...0.16...Oklahoma City
33–18...(44–13)...B01...0.17...Tulsa

Only one of these stations at the 10th percentile would get close to the existing record lows.

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The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 00Z run):

23–03...(38–B09)...B02...1.89...Amarillo
35–20...(54–11).....17......0.24...Austin Camp Mabry
29–18...(45–10).....07......1.06...Dallas
38–28...(69–15).....16......0.43...Houston
21–07...(41–B05)...B03...1.89...Oklahoma City
20–07...(38–B05)...B01...2.13...Tulsa

All of these stations except Dallas at the 10th percentile would break the existing record lows.

[wxman57]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

[Quixotic]

It’s coming and Austin will be under the gun. I know because I’ll be in Round Rock for a tournament that weekend. Looking forward to freezing on the soccer field Sunday and Monday.

[orangeblood]

It’s coming and Austin will be under the gun. I know because I’ll be in Round Rock for a tournament that weekend. Looking forward to freezing on the soccer field Sunday and Monday.

One of many reasons why I’m not the biggest fan of the youth club soccer world…January February soccer tournaments . Is it really the end of the world if they don’t play during those 2 months??

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

I’d love it. I live in the country away from idiots and we are on a co op

[Ntxw]

The dam is going to burst.

[snownado]

Personally i would love for that run to happen lol

I don't think you'd love being below freezing from Monday PM to Saturday PM and water pipes bursting in your attic if you left the water on for the week. If we really do get as cold as the Euro (hard to believe this far out), then I'll be shutting off water to the house on Monday and living with Home Depot buckets of water all week. Wow, that sounds like lots of fun!

As someone who almost froze to death with pets after 48 straight hours without power in Feb. 2021, there's nothing fun what so ever about what some of these models are projecting.

At least with 100s in the Summer, pipes aren't bursting and power generators aren't freezing over....

[TallyTracker]

A rare site from any operational….Major US Ice storm from the LGV along the entire gulf coast to Florida. Wild!

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/scentus/frzr_total/1736683200/1737979200-vMCawwetdXs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-deterministic/se/frzr_total/1736683200/1737979200-9SF2dllvkG0.png

That would peak at over 2” of ice in the eastern FL Panhandle. I-10 would be closed from central Texas to nearly Jacksonville…

[Throckmorton]

According to the ECMWF operational model (Jan. 12th, 12Z run), Jan. 20–24 would become the coldest five consecutive days on record for Austin Camp Mabry. The average temperature of 19.2° would break the record of 19.4° set during February 10–14, 1899. (The climate record began February 1, 1893).

Forecast temperatures and snowfall:
63–41...Saturday, 1/18
39–30...Sunday
28–23...Monday, 1/20 (snow; 1.1 inches)
18–12...Tuesday (snow; 1.7 new inches)
21–07...Wednesday
25–12...Thursday
24–22...Friday, 1/24 (snow; 2.0 new inches)
35–25...Saturday, 1/25 (light morning snow; 0.2 new inches)
45–32...Sunday, 1/26

[Iceresistance]

Jesus Christ Euro


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOps.gif

[869MB]

I’m personally leaning towards the latest 12Z Euro run simply because of the fact that the frozen precipitation is depicted to occur over SE TX around MLK Day. It seems like SE TX deals with some sort of inclement weather around the MLK time frame recently. Hopefully, now that I’ve mentioned this tidbit I will jinx it and this scenario doesn’t come to fruition now.

[Ntxw]

EPS triples down.

[gboudx]

It’s coming and Austin will be under the gun. I know because I’ll be in Round Rock for a tournament that weekend. Looking forward to freezing on the soccer field Sunday and Monday.

One of many reasons why I’m not the biggest fan of the youth club soccer world…January February soccer tournaments . Is it really the end of the world if they don’t play during those 2 months??

Jan is when high school soccer gets going. When my youngest played in high school, they went to a tournament in Round Rock too. Iirc his club didn’t start play until about March though they did practice. But maybe some club soccer is going on now too.

[Stratton23]

Ntxw that is absolutely insane!

[Ntxw]

Some notable general dates late Jan/Feb outbreaks anomalies.

1940 - By monthly average this is the coldest month ever in Texas.


Jan 1949


Feb 1982


Jan/Feb 1985


Feb 2021

[Brent]

MLK weekend last year was the peak of winter here too...

I mean yes Thursday had more snow than last winter here but that was the peak when we had a high of 6 one day

[orangeblood]

It’s coming and Austin will be under the gun. I know because I’ll be in Round Rock for a tournament that weekend. Looking forward to freezing on the soccer field Sunday and Monday.

One of many reasons why I’m not the biggest fan of the youth club soccer world…January February soccer tournaments . Is it really the end of the world if they don’t play during those 2 months??

Jan is when high school soccer gets going. When my youngest played in high school, they went to a tournament in Round Rock too. Iirc his club didn’t start play until about March though they did practice. But maybe some club soccer is going on now too.

The Texas club soccer world now has 8, 9, 10 year olds playing all year round tournaments

[bubba hotep]

12z Euro EPS has an 8-day below freezing cluster for DFW, and it also raised the chances of a multi inch snow event to about 20% for DFW.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

12z Euro EPS has an 8-day below freezing cluster for DFW, and it also raised the chances of a multi inch snow event to about 20% for DFW.

That’s more of a December 1983 type event

[Iceresistance]

Parts of Texas be -50°F below normal on this 12z Euro run, I don't recall the last time the Euro was this aggressive


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/SXOx4.png