Pacific Northwest Weather

andycottle · #5081 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:23 am

WAIT!! Just now started to rain here.

andrewr · #5082 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:33 am

I've got rain as well and 58F.

TT-SEA · #5083 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:44 am

Light rain has ended. Only about .04 here at our house.

andycottle · #5084 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 12:58 am

Yeah....that little bit rain we had didn`t last very long. -- Andy

Guest · #5085 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 2:55 am

Oh My goodness TT... You actually have got this week down... Your forecast looks good...

Here is my general prediction for temperatures this week...

Monday through Wednesday will have highs range from the mid 60's north, to lower 70's farther south with a possible 75 here and there. Wednesday night through friday is when things really cool off and high temps drop into the low 60's... With offshore flow and colder 850mb temps and thickness, we could see lows into the lower 30's and possibly lower... Will stay with conservative low-mid 30's by mid-late next week, but it certainly could get colder according to the GFS...

hi- 65-72 Mon-wed
hi-58-65 thu-fri, lo-28-35

Anthony I really don't see how you can say we will get downright hott this week. I don't know what you are looking at. I guess the real question is, what you aren't looking at... You really need to be looking at the 850mb temps later in the week and also take a look at the thicknesses dropping throughout the week as well. Also, look at where the source of cold air is coming from, not too far from the north pole...

Ok now this upcoming week, wednesday through friday, looks similar to the pattern in 1951... TT, do you have any idea how we got so cold in late april of 1951? What type of pattern do you think it happened with? What if i told you that the pattern from back then and the one the GFS shows for mid-late week looked extremely similar? Please put some imput forward on this...

And i really think that after this week you might just think twice about this month being so normal... We will wait and see though... I disagree about this month being so normal...

TT-SEA · #5086 Postby **TT-SEA** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 10:36 am

Nice wide range.

Try giving one number for one location!!

If the week goes as you predict then the month will end almost perfectly normal. So... yes... I will think it was a normal month.

Guest · #5087 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 1:42 pm

Ok i will go out on a limb and predict the temperatures just for you... Even though the models are going to change for mid week to saturday in the next couple days... These next couple days are just going to be sunny and a little above normal...

Here is my forecast from Wednesday-Saturday

Wednesday - Bellingham: Lo-40*F Hi-64*F
- Sea-Tac : Lo-43*F Hi-67*F
- Olympia: Lo-39*F 69*F,
Thursday -Bellingham: Lo-34*F Hi- 60*F
- Sea-Tac :Lo-39*F Hi-62*F
- Olympia :Lo-31*F Hi-66*F
Friday - Bellingham:Lo-30*F Hi-54*F
- Sea-Tac: Lo-33*F Hi-57*F
- Olympia: Lo- 25*F 61*F
Saturday -Bellingham:Lo-28*F Hi-55*F
- Sea-Tac: Lo-32*F Hi-57*F
- Olympia:Lo-25*F Hi-59*F

Ok TT your turn

Guest · #5088 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 1:45 pm

And Anthony, I really think you came off on this week. There is no way it is going to get to 80 this week anywhere. There is onshore flow from monday-Wednesday when the flow goes offshore, 850mb temps drop to +3C, and thicknesses plunge as well... by late week 850mb temps are at 0C and thicknesses are as low as 534, And the big thing, 500mb heights are all the way down to 546 by friday and saturday... Now none of those numbers support 80* anywhere, even if 500mb heights are 570 early week. You have to look at 850mb temps as well as thickness and heights.

Guest · #5089 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 1:47 pm

Oh yeah, with northerly flow coming all the way from the north pole, that is a big thing too. lol

Guest · #5090 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:22 pm

It's sure a nice day out... It's too bad i have major alergy problems with pollen and cotton wood and can't even go to school... Not nearly as warm as some may have thought it to be... Only 64 for my high so far and it doesn;t look like it will go much above that.

Guest · #5091 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:23 pm

TT do you think the pattern this upcoming week resembles any of patterns of the past that created record lows for april?

Guest · #5092 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:24 pm

Or do you think it is just a pattern that happens anually or every few years on average?

R-Dub · #5093 Postby **R-Dub** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:31 pm

Another perfect day, currently at 2:30PM its Sunny with a temp of 70 degrees 8-)

Guest · #5094 Postby **Guest** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 4:59 pm

R-dub, seems that you are the only one around, what do you think the weather and temperatures will be like this week? Do you think it will be hott like anthony says? or have you looked at the models carefully and believe it will be cool throughout the week, getting progressively colder towards the end of the week, with cold nights beginning wednesday and lasting through saturday?

LETS GET SOME PREDICTIONS GOING ON HERE... COMMON TT I WANT SOME INPUT ON MINE.

andrewr · #5095 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 5:19 pm

I haven't seen the sun yet today and my high is 60F so far.

AnthonyC · #5096 Postby **AnthonyC** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 5:43 pm

Brennan,

I will take back my prediction of 80F+...you're correct, it won't happen this week. 850 mb temperatures don't support this. But some places will approach 75F...possibly 80F...tomorrow as the surface high in British Columbia moves right off our coast. Will little wind and strong, radiational warming...I say Sea-Tac has a high of 73F tomorrow.

Once the surface high retrogrades to 140W...a northerly flow will develop. But it's the END of April...so temperatures won't cool too much. By Friday, we'll be back down to normal...and should stay that way through the weekend. I don't think we'll drop below 60F. As for overnight lows...Brennan...20s?! Even Olympia...I don't think so...it's almost May. 25F at the end of April is unusual. I would say 35F...but nothing colder. The main Seattle area will be near 40F.

And the extended GFS models indicate another strong ridge developing during the first week of May. By then, I say somewhere will surpass the 80-degree mark!! lol.

Anthony

W13 · #5097 Postby **W13** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 6:08 pm

andrewr wrote:I haven't seen the sun yet today and my high is 60F so far.

Same here.

andycottle · #5098 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 7:18 pm

I`m seeing the sunshine right now! Infact, looking at the current visable satellite loop from the MM5 modle....looks like cloudy skies from about my area South and West of me. I have partly cloudy skies at the current time. But from about Snohomish county Northward....skies are all clear.
My high today was 72 with a low of 54. Temp right now is 68 with DP at 52. -- Andy

andrewr · #5099 Postby **andrewr** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 7:29 pm

The clouds never broke all day and my high was 60F.

andycottle · #5100 Postby **andycottle** » Mon Apr 25, 2005 9:21 pm

Good evening all. A pretty nice late evening out there folks. Light wind with a temp of 62 degrees and with a little sun makes it feel nice. Though it may be mostly cloudy tonight as the stratus clouds are not too far off. Here`s a few pics I took of the clouds that I have mentioned. http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/78f7

-- Andy

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