Texas Winter 2018-2019

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers .

We're gonna win...We're gonna win....We're gonna win.....

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: See and this is what I mean by discouraged. When we have Wxman57 doing the heavy lifting to promote cold maps, it's clearly a problem with cold mongers .

We're gonna win...We're gonna win....We're gonna win.....

I would like to thank Arctic Thunder and South Texas Storms ( and the MANY others) for keeping the faith. Now, may our Summer be one of the coldest on record. So cold, Wxman 57 has to use a kerosene heater while he mows to heat his yard up to 100F...he he he

[Haris]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

[bubba hotep]

The teleconnection indices back that up, definitely a ice storm setup with low level cold air press in southwest upper level flow...should be a heck of a battleground setting up across the southern plains!!

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/images/4indices.png

+NAO & +WPO both favor a SE ridge, making it hard to get deep cold into the S. Plains. I would rather move on to Spring than deal with an ice storm.

Also, models seem to be trending towards +AO/NAO in the longer range... Looks like glancing blows of shallow cold air into late February for Texas. On reason to hold out hope? The models have sucked this winter.

With the magnitude of cold air being shown on the EPS, I have a very hard time believing that Southeast Ridge can hold on for very long.....

It will be interesting to see what 12z & Weeklies show but the 00z did have a solid cluster that moves the cold into the Central US.

[bubba hotep]

Take a look at this surface map from this morning (top image) vs. the same area back on January 17th (lower image). Much colder there now.

http://wxman57.com/images/coldtemps.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/Canada.JPG

Great post. -EPO, source region in the -30s and a 1045ish surface high over the Plains. That is a recipe for cold in the Southern Plains. Only real missing thing is a KS/OK snowpack.

I am interested to see if any of the shortwaves next week can dig into the SW before ejecting. If one can that will be a great set up for winter weather.

Yea, it has been frustrating watching the wave breaking in the Pacific and we just can't catch a break. Eventually, we will get a system to dig but the waiting sucks lol

[sphelps8681]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?

[SoupBone]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?

I though Piney Woods referred to upper NE Texas?

[bubba hotep]

I have mentioned that it's not just Texas that has been disappointed in this winter and the frustration with the longer range extends beyond this board. I'm sure everyone knows who Matt is and Dr. Butler is one of the top SSW researchers out there.



The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.

[sphelps8681]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?

I though Piney Woods referred to upper NE Texas?

I am on the Southern end of the piney woods. Had to look it up to make sure. It does show my area unless I am looking at it wrong.

[Ntxw]

I am quite surprised (but not really till verification) that the guidance hardly brings that much cold down despite showing the strongest HPs of the season. So either the models are not fully integrated with reality of the cold air, at the surface, or the return flow is really doing its job to hold tight the cold roughly north of Oklahoma. Mid to upper 1040s is pretty decent if you ask me.

There is a distinct disconnect between the upper flow pattern and what is at the surface.

[orangeblood]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Unfortunately, I believe JB is making the same mistake a lot of us have made....making an assumption based on the snowfall accumulation map and not actually looking at the meteograms or temp profiles! Unless he's stating that he thinks models are underestimating temp profiles... IMO seems pretty irresponsible of him, as a Pro Met, if he's making something like that public on twitter!

[Ntxw]

The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.

Been frustrating for sure. It even unloaded the cold to North America but the Pacific pattern did not want to give during the severe -AO (over -3 sigma) that dislodged the PVa towards the Great Lakes to some historic cold. Blip for Texas. Ironically we may endure a colder 2-3 week period here with the +AO than we did during the -AO. It's becoming more and more apparent as the years pass that we heavily rely on the Pacific. The Atlantic/adjacent Arctic often does not deliver.

[orangeblood]

I have mentioned that it's not just Texas that has been disappointed in this winter and the frustration with the longer range extends beyond this board. I'm sure everyone knows who Matt is and Dr. Butler is one of the top SSW researchers out there.

https://i.ibb.co/sJNHC8Q/Capture-2019-02-04-12-21-47-1.png

The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.

Yep, IMO long range weather forecasting is one of the most humbling professions and/or hobbies there is....even more so than the stock market, as human nature is much more predictable than mother nature!!

[wxman57]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

I'm not sure that he really looked at the weather in the area. He was referring to the fact that the Euro has been predicting a band of light snow in the area for the past few runs - with surface temps in the upper 30s. Looks more like a bad snow algorithm in the Euro, to me. Wouldn't 100% rule out the chance of a brief snowflake as the precip ends, though. Here's the latest EC snow map. Light gray contours generally mean it's not going to happen.

[JDawg512]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Something to watch. I am in the piney woods. When is this snow/ice event?

I though Piney Woods referred to upper NE Texas?

Pine forests, although broken into pieces stretch down into eastern Central and South Central Texas with the most notable being Lost Pines in Bastrop County 30 miles east of Austin.

[orangeblood]

I am quite surprised (but not really till verification) that the guidance hardly brings that much cold down despite showing the strongest HPs of the season. So either the models are not fully integrated with reality of the cold air, at the surface, or the return flow is really doing its job to hold tight the cold roughly north of Oklahoma. Mid to upper 1040s is pretty decent if you ask me.

There is a distinct disconnect between the upper flow pattern and what is at the surface.

Really Strange! Check out the Euro, has a 1055 next week coming down from Canada and almost completely wipes it out as it moves into the southern plains! And that air is originating from Northern Canada into the Arctic Circle

[Lagreeneyes03]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Considering the source is JB, that's probably why.

[hriverajr]

Has anyone seen JB ‘ tweet this AM. He’s calling for ice and snow from San Antonio to piney woods... Surprised no chatter.

Considering the source is JB, that's probably why.

He called for it on his video as well. hehehe

[TheProfessor]

Man we're probably going to have flood watched hoisted up in the next 24-36 hours. Indiana is already warning about ice jams over there as there could be a fairly wide strip of 2-4" of rain from southern Indiana to central Ohio. Add that to soils that are still saturated and oof. These kind of events that occur during a thaw are what makes me worried for the potential of a big flood in the Ohio Valley this spring.

[Ralph's Weather]

The frustration is real. All we can do is try to continue to learn and hope for better results next time out.

Been frustrating for sure. It even unloaded the cold to North America but the Pacific pattern did not want to give during the severe -AO (over -3 sigma) that dislodged the PVa towards the Great Lakes to some historic cold. Blip for Texas. Ironically we may endure a colder 2-3 week period here with the +AO than we did during the -AO. It's becoming more and more apparent as the years pass that we heavily rely on the Pacific. The Atlantic/adjacent Arctic often does not deliver.

I think both can deliver though it seems the Pacific can deliver w/o the Atlantic better than vice versa. AO seems more like a modifier than a true delivery method. Cold can be deliver by just the EPO, ice from -EPA/-PNA but snow needs the Atlantic to dam up the cold and allow it to deepen vs just bleed south. I fully expect late this week to be much colder than currently modeled (ie teens to low 20 for N & NE TX). I refuse to buy into post frontal snow, it just about never works out. We need a trailing shortwave for snow without -NAO.