Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Ntxw]

On the GFS the time frame Sunday evening to Monday morning conditions deteriorate rapidly along the I-35 corridor. Significant height rises with heavy snow and drifting snow winds could go 25-30mph or more locally. This includes both DFW and Austin. Temps fall hard, blizzard.

[vbhoutex]

This is this morning's email from Jeff Lindner with Harris County Flood Control. It is SE TX centric.

A potentially historic arctic outbreak nears with likely memorable significant impacts and long duration hazardous and challenges

A major winter storm looks to impact nearly all of Texas on Monday resulting to widespread travel disruption and potential for stranded travelers on interstates

Maximum cold weather preparation MUST be completed for this cold outbreak to attempt to mitigate significant infrastructure and property damage

Discussion:

Modified arctic air mass continues to filter into the region off fresh ice cover over central and north Texas where significant impacts occurred yesterday. Freezing temperatures extend from NW of Huntsville to around Brenham and then back toward San Antonio. Light rain and drizzle will continue this morning over the area with some decrease this afternoon (this will be the opportunity for road crew to begin pretreatment operations). No real change in the air mass through Sunday morning with the freezing line moving southward over the area each night and creeping back NW during the day. Will need to keep an eye on where the line pushes each night as areas north of the freezing line could see some minor freezing rain or freezing drizzle on Saturday and Sunday. Will also keep an eye on the next disturbance that will approach the region on Saturday afternoon and evening. Short range models are coming in a bit stronger with this disturbance and that could result in a bit more showers and rain than currently in the forecast for Saturday afternoon and evening and will need to keep a close eye on the freezing line Saturday night for any southward adjustments.

Sunday night-Monday:

“True” arctic air mass builds down the plains and this the region with temperatures falling into the 20’s for most areas. A strong upper level short wave trough will approach from the west late Sunday and induce a surface low over the NW Gulf helping to draw the cold air southward and increasing winds over the area. Precipitation is likely to start Sunday evening and overspread all of the region Sunday night into Monday. Still going with all P-types (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) and it is certainly possible that any one location may see all 3 types on Monday. With surface temperatures falling into the mid 20’s on Monday accumulations are likely. Will hold off another 12-24 hours and take a look at some of the short range guidance today and early Saturday to get an idea of accumulations which will be strongly tied to P-type.

Travel will become nearly impossible over the region Sunday night-Monday and likely extending into Tuesday as precipitation coats and accumulates on all surfaces…including surface streets.

Monday night-Tuesday:

Potentially record cold as skies clear and ice/snow on the ground will result in absolutely impressive cold. Will go with 10’s all areas and 20-25 on the beaches and then 1’s mainly north of HWY 105. This will be extremely damaging temperatures for the area and widespread challenges are likely. Will go with low 10’s north of I-10 in Harris County and mid to upper 10’s over the coastal and southern part of the county. Some locations may near or exceed daily record lows and approach all-time record lows.

Many areas will likely experience between 24-74 hours at or below freezing and the long duration of the sub-freezing temperatures combined with the extreme cold will make impacts long lasting.

Preparations:

I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather preparations to help mitigate significant property damage

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.


Detailed Forecast:

Today: Cloudy with a 30% chance of mainly morning light rain and drizzle. High in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph

Saturday: Cloudy with a 30% chance of light rain or drizzle. Low in the mid 30’s and high in the mid 40’s. N wind 10-15mph

Sunday: Cloudy with a 40% chance of light rain or drizzle early then a chance of freezing rain and sleet by evening. Temperatures in the low 30’s near sunrise . N wind 15-20mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s.

Monday: Cloudy with an 80% chance of freezing rain, sleet, and snow. Temperatures steady in the mid 20’s. N wind 15-25mph. Wind chills in the 10’s.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a low in the low to mid 10’s and high near 30. N wind 5-10mph. Wind chills 1’s.

Wednesday: Cloudy with a 60% chance of precipitation. Low in the mid 20’s and high in the mid 30’s. NE wind 10-15mph.

[Ntxw]

Also not to miss out in West Texas and Oklahoma too. Wind is a strong factor and out in West Texas I can see valid reasons for blizzard watches/warnings out there initially.

[SoupBone]

My paid service is now showing less than 1/8" icing for the Houston area, with the caveat that the forecast can obviously change. Less ice is great, 1/8" would be crazy on roads still, but not result in mass power outages. I really hope this forecast holds.

Yep, mainly sleet then snow at the end

I hate sleet, but will gladly take it over freezing rain. Snow will just be lagniappe.

[Shoshana]

Thank goodness that cluster of freezing precip in the Hill Country is dissipating. Have had quite enough of this ice... and it's only the beginning...

I had several large tree limbs in backyard succumb to weight of ice yesterday, within a 2 hour period. One medium size one fell on edge of roof, but rolled off onto ground. They literally fell while I was walking out there! Some neighbors also dealing with same thing, and parking their trucks in street away from trees in their driveway. I just got done moving them to a location of yard with gravel (not grass) to saw up later, weather permitting. They were heavy!

Also wrapped outside spigots with towels (exposed portions), overlaid with bubble wrap and duct tape, leaving end of spigot open for dripping. They are on outside wall of house, one on north side which gets frozen easily.

I never thought I would say this, but I'm already tired of Winter weather (based on yesterday), and trying to survive the next week.

We put the styrofoam covers on ours ... was thinking of wrapping them inside the covers. Is dripping them better? Knock on wood they have never frozen but then again we haven’t seen this kind of cold in this house either

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

There's going to be major damage done to tropical & subtropical plants in the Houston area if the GFS's and Euro's forecasted lows in the low to mid teens for Houston on Tuesday morning come to fruition. Incredible that those temps could be close or tie the record set during the 1895 Arctic blast.

Yep. I was a kid growing up in the RGV in the 80's. What the 1983 freeze event didn't get whipped out was taken care of by the 1989 event.

The RGV used to have miles of road ways bordered by towering palms and citrus trees as far as one could on the horizon . Both events put many of those Farmers out of business and their land went to use for residential or commercial purposes. Some of it sadly because it was in prime soil and irrigation areas down there where other agriculture could have taken it's place.... but the land was cheap and developers (a lot from Mexico) swooped in for it.

[SoupBone]

A tip that I learned years ago too, and though you might already know I'm posting it anyway. Those cheap pool noodles you find at the dollar stores or pool stores work great in a pinch if your local hardware stores are out of insulating piping covers. Just make sure you wrap them correctly.

[WacoWx]

Dumb question: Do i need to drain my sprinkler system? That is not something I have ever heard of, but this is a cold that I have never owned a home in.

[Ntxw]

Snow storm #2 comes in mid week and we threaten all time seasonal snow fall records. GFS.

[srainhoutx]

Dumb question: Do i need to drain my sprinkler system? That is not something I have ever heard of, but this is a cold that I have never owned a home in.

Yes. Drain that sprinkler system!

[cstrunk]

NWS still has us here in Longview warming up to 40F today. I just don't see that happening.

As of 10 AM:

Longview 30F
Mount Pleasant 30F
Tyler 27F
Gilmer 27F

That latest GFS run has me at -3F Tuesday morning.

[Ntxw]

NWS still has us here in Longview warming up to 40F today. I just don't see that happening.

As of 10 AM:

Longview 30F
Mount Pleasant 30F
Tyler 27F
Gilmer 27F

That latest GFS run has me at -3F Tuesday morning.

Still 24F at DFW as of 10am and there is CAA with a northerly wind ~15mph that has persisted for days. No warm up is coming anywhere north of I-10. Just expect at or below freezing until late next week.

[bubba hotep]

Snow storm #2 comes in mid week and we threaten all time seasonal snow fall records. GFS.

GFS-P actually shows more qpf for portions of N. Texas but has a lot fall as freezing rain or sleet.

Also, FWD had forecast highs near freezing across DFW today with partly sunny skies. Clouds are holding tough and most areas are still in the mid-20s.

[rwfromkansas]

So after reading the scary update from Texas Storm Chasers, they mention sprinkler systems breaking. What the heck can I do to protect that?! That's in the ground. It's been shut off for a good month or two completely.

[Ntxw]

Snow storm #2 comes in mid week and we threaten all time seasonal snow fall records. GFS.

GFS-P actually shows more qpf for portions of N. Texas but has a lot fall as freezing rain or sleet.

Also, FWD had forecast highs near freezing across DFW today with partly sunny skies. Clouds are holding tough and most areas are still in the mid-20s.

It's likely overdoing the return flow, like they've all been trying to do all week ahead of the strong system(s). But by then the deeper cold column will have already been in place.

Yeah I doubt any clearing happens, the temperature inversion due to the shallow air mass has prevailed in preventing any clearing forecast.

[bubba hotep]

Dumb question: Do i need to drain my sprinkler system? That is not something I have ever heard of, but this is a cold that I have never owned a home in.

Yes. Drain that sprinkler system!

srainhoutx, good to see you posting! Hope all is well.

[ATXAG95]

Howdy friends. Long time lurker, first time poster! I'm in NW Austin where we are iced in pretty good.

I just wanted to thank you for all that y'all do. It's very much appreciated!

[Ntxw]

Howdy friends. Long time lurker, first time poster! I'm in NW Austin where we are iced in pretty good.

I just wanted to thank you for all that y'all do. It's very much appreciated!

Welcome! Glad you decided to make your first post .

[gboudx]

So after reading the scary update from Texas Storm Chasers, they mention sprinkler systems breaking. What the heck can I do to protect that?! That's in the ground. It's been shut off for a good month or two completely.

I seriously doubt the ground freezes that deep. Yeah I can see the top 1/2"-1" freezing as it did imby in 2011, but not as deep as sprinkler systems are. I always turn off the sprinkler water supply. I supposed it's possible that could freeze since its in a boxed area under the ground.

[Skarismitty75]

Longtime lurker, honestly I trust this site for my weather more than anyone out there. Thank you for what you do and helping educate us while having fun while doing it. Any ideas on preventing outdoor sump pumps and tanks from freezing? People with septic tanks could be in some rather precarios scenerios here.