Texas Winter 2024-2025

[TexasF6]

Anyone got eyes on the Siberian air right now?

[Cpv17]

Yeah, we’re about to blow through 300 pages here with ease.

[Throckmorton]

Anyone got eyes on the Siberian air right now?

Forecast low tenperatures for Verkhoyansk on January 16th in °F:
–58...GEM
–58...ICON
–57...GFS
–54...ECMWF
–50...UKMO
–47...ACCESS–G

[Portastorm]

Good lord, the 0Z ECMWF is hopefully Jester, because I really don't want another 2021 caliber event.

Ditto! It was catastrophic here in Austin. I was lucky to have power but had no water for a week. When one smells worse than one's dogs after a period of time ... the "fun" part of winter weather fades quickly.

[GeauxTigers]

So everyone/all models on board w-extreme cold next weekend, but nothing set in stone until later in week with precip?

[Throckmorton]

So everyone/all models on board w-extreme cold next weekend, but nothing set in stone until later in week with precip?

GFS is not on board.

[Stratton23]

Unfortunately i think the extreme scenario might be becoming more likely despite the GFS being warmer, models just dont handle cold air well at all, especially Siberian air, in my opinion this could be a similar situation to february 2021, mayne not as extreme, but it could be close, its remarkable to see the euruo and canadian guidance be so consistent about this

[Gotwood]

Unfortunately i think the extreme scenario might be becoming more likely despite the GFS being warmer, models just dont handle cold air well at all, especially Siberian air, in my opinion this could be a similar situation to february 2021, mayne not as extreme, but it could be close, its remarkable to see the euruo and canadian guidance be so consistent about this

What’s the reasoning for it? Was there an SSW?

[bubba hotep]

The Euro is the coldest of the bunch (beats Canadian even .) But the concern is the ensembles. Pretty extreme even for them, only a handful of times have they showed this.

What about the gfs ensembles?

They are cold too, just not as extreme at this time.

I think we can look at two things - 1. Does the pattern support extreme cold? 2. Is there ensemble cluster support? The pattern the ensembles show can support extreme cold, and there is a cluster on the 12z EPS. I think that does give some weight to the 12z Euro OP run.

[Portastorm]

Unfortunately i think the extreme scenario might be becoming more likely despite the GFS being warmer, models just dont handle cold air well at all, especially Siberian air, in my opinion this could be a similar situation to february 2021, mayne not as extreme, but it could be close, its remarkable to see the euruo and canadian guidance be so consistent about this

I think it's weird to see the Euro in agreement with the Canadian. You know we used to call it the Crazy Canadian because ... well ... because it usually is crazy. It's usually way, way too cold. So seeing both in tandem about next weekend raises a few eyebrows.

I do want to support what my neighbor txtwister said about ensembles. Looking at each cycle's operational runs is entertaining, but I would place much more stock in the ensembles. Over the years I've learned that is a more reliable approach.

[Stratton23]

Portastorm yup ensembles are the way to go right now, but even then, the EPS/ GEPS are both in agreement on potential extreme cold, you just do not see that very often

[Ntxw]

What about the gfs ensembles?

They are cold too, just not as extreme at this time.

I think we can look at two things - 1. Does the pattern support extreme cold? 2. Is there ensemble cluster support? The pattern the ensembles show can support extreme cold, and there is a cluster on the 12z EPS. I think that does give some weight to the 12z Euro OP run.

There is extreme cold on the GFS noted by -40s + in Saskatchewan and North Dakota. It's just the orientation of its trough positioning doesn't hang back to the west like the other operationals. Will it cave soon?

[bubba hotep]

They are cold too, just not as extreme at this time.

I think we can look at two things - 1. Does the pattern support extreme cold? 2. Is there ensemble cluster support? The pattern the ensembles show can support extreme cold, and there is a cluster on the 12z EPS. I think that does give some weight to the 12z Euro OP run.

There is extreme cold on the GFS noted by -40s + in Saskatchewan and North Dakota. It's just the orientation of its trough positioning doesn't hang back to the west like the other operationals. Will it cave soon?

You know the answer lol

[ThunderSleetDreams]

They are cold too, just not as extreme at this time.

I think we can look at two things - 1. Does the pattern support extreme cold? 2. Is there ensemble cluster support? The pattern the ensembles show can support extreme cold, and there is a cluster on the 12z EPS. I think that does give some weight to the 12z Euro OP run.

There is extreme cold on the GFS noted by -40s + in Saskatchewan and North Dakota. It's just the orientation of its trough positioning doesn't hang back to the west like the other operationals. Will it cave soon?

Siberian air due to a big negative EPO. We know where the cold hugs in these….. right down the Rockies.

[Ntxw]

GEPS and CMC at 500mb is the more extreme 500H set up, even though the Euro has the bigger surface cold temps. The SW->NE trough axis would set up a more direct funnel to Texas akin to 1949 and 2021. Euro/EPS is a middle ground between GEPS and GEFS.

[Throckmorton]

None of the ensrmble means support a historic Arctic air outbreak. Not even a repeat of February 2021.

[Stratton23]

Throckmortom that’s is completely wrong, the 850 mb temperature on both the GEPS/ EPS can tell a whole different story

[orangeblood]

None of the ensrmble means support a historic Arctic air outbreak. Not even a repeat of February 2021.

That’s to be expected…it’s a mean with warm biased iterations. 10-14 days out from 2021 outbreak, the model patterns was Ops showing us signs of something extreme then ENS would slowly creep down towards the Op over time. But ENS mean never showed us anything historic until it was at our front door.

[Quixotic]

It’s coming and Austin will be under the gun. I know because I’ll be in Round Rock for a tournament that weekend. Looking forward to freezing on the soccer field Sunday and Monday.

One of many reasons why I’m not the biggest fan of the youth club soccer world…January February soccer tournaments . Is it really the end of the world if they don’t play during those 2 months??

You have no idea. We practiced Tuesday (below freezing/windy) but not Thursday(fields shut down because of snow). I’m with you that they need a break but we have a new coach and I can’t say a word about anything. Any feedback from the parents is highly discouraged. Had a tournament in Florida in December as well. Gotta get those points and watch our rankings rise.

[orangeblood]

Differences b/w GFS and Euro are pretty profound at this point…