Texas Winter 2014-2015

[gpsnowman]

Here I am on a Saturday afternoon smoking chickens, drinking beer in the sun, and watching the Weather Channel. Looking at all the pretty pinks and purples and blues in Denver and the east. Their winter weather guy gave a Week Ahead update showing all those colors across Texas for Monday. Very exciting!! Have a strong feeling school cancellations are a sure bet that day. If the ice and snow is thick enough, Tuesday would be in jeopardy as well because temps will have a hard time climbing with a frozen sheet across the Metroplex.

[dhweather]

FWD AFD


000
FXUS64 KFWD 212147
AFDFWD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
347 PM CST SAT FEB 21 2015

.DISCUSSION...

...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM LIKELY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...

THE INITIAL COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL BUT OUR FAR SOUTHERN
CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH ALL OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINING EAST
OF THE AREA. CLOUD COVER HAS SCATTERED OUT A BIT THIS AFTERNOON
AND TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED A FEW DEGREES INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE.
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY AGAIN LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
REGION AS LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP THE SHALLOW COOLER AIR BECOMES MORE
SOUTHERLY. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL BE
APPROACHING NORTH TEXAS. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE UPPER PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. THIS COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY TOMORROW WITH NORTHERLY WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASING. DURING
THIS TIME...LOW LEVEL FLOW ATOP THIS COLDER AIR WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY AND STRENGTHEN TO AROUND 30KTS. THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE
850-700MB TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
RESULTING IN MODERATE TO STRONG ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALL DAY ON
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL
TEXAS EARLY SUNDAY AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE DAY.
HAVE RAISED POPS TO 100 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS FOR
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE
DAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF OUR FAR NORTHWEST COUNTIES. SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START MOVING INTO THOSE AREAS BY VERY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...SO LIQUID RAIN MAY BEGIN TO FREEZE.
A TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MAY OCCUR BY EARLY EVENING
NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX. THIS INITIAL WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL ALSO BE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING SO WE
SHOULD SEE THINGS TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
DURING THIS BRIEF DECREASE IN ACTIVITY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...AFTER MIDNIGHT...INTO MONDAY...

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING SOUTHWEST OF CALIFORNIA WILL
BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS STRENGTHENING
FLOW IS ALREADY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AS AN ENHANCED PLUME
OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL
PROVIDE INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. AS THIS STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES...AREAS OF
PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
AND SPREAD EAST INTO NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY. A PERSISTENT AREA
OF 850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS WILL EXIST RIGHT ACROSS THE CWA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AND WILL LIKELY PROVIDE SOME ENHANCED
MESOSCALE FORCING. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS VERY
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS FORCING AND ACTUALLY SHOWS STRONG CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS TO THE PRECIPITATION. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND SREF PLUMES OF MUCAPE WHICH ALL INDICATE THAT
BETWEEN 50-150J/KG OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT VERY
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF
THE METROPLEX. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SOME BANDED CONVECTIVE SLEET
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME AND WE HAVE ADDED
ISOLATED THUNDER TO THE CURRENT FORECAST. THERMAL PROFILES STILL
SHOW A PERSISTENT WARM NOSE AT 800MB OF +1 TO +2 DEGREES C. THIS
IS SUFFICIENTLY WARM AND DEEP ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO MELT AND REFREEZE
IN THE VERY COLD AIR BENEATH IT...SUGGESTING A PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE OF SLEET. WE WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS WARM NOSE...BECAUSE A COUPLE OF DEGREES OF COOLING WOULD
SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO SNOW. THIS IS MOST LIKELY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST COUNTIES BUT AS OF NOW...CONFIDENCE IN THAT HAPPENING IS
A LITTLE LOW. THERE IS ALMOST NO ROOM FOR EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND
SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THIS LAYER WOULD NOT ADVECT ANY COLDER AIR IN.

CONVECTIVE SLEET CAN ACCUMULATE RATHER QUICKLY...AND BASED ON THE
LATEST QPF AMOUNTS CURRENTLY FORECAST...WE HAVE RAISED THE SLEET
ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/2 TO 1
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SHERMAN TO DFW AND SOUTHWEST TO
COMANCHE THROUGH MONDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SLEET AND
HIGH IMPACTS TO THE MONDAY MORNING RUSH WARRANTS UPGRADING PARTS
OF THE CURRENT WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. THIS WARNING WILL
EXTEND FROM COMANCHE TO DALLAS AND NORTH TO SHERMAN. THE REMAINDER
OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. PARTS OF THE REMAINING WATCH MAY BE
CONVERTED TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN BELOW FREEZING ACROSS
MOST OF NORTH TEXAS...AND IN THE MID 20S ACROSS THE WESTERN PARTS
OF THE CWA. AREAS SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX...INCLUDING WACO WILL BE
SUB-FREEZING BUT THERMAL PROFILES ALOFT WILL BE
WARMER...SUGGESTING THAT THERE WILL BE MORE FREEZING RAIN TO
CONTEND WITH. AT THIS TIME...WE STILL THINK SLEET WILL DOMINATE
BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY. IF MORE ICE IS EXPECTED FROM
FREEZING RAIN...THEN WE WILL HAVE TO REASSESS THE CURRENT
WARNING.

BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COLD WITH LITTLE MELTING OF
ACCUMULATED SLEET LIKELY TO OCCUR. ANY MELTING THAT DOES OCCUR
WILL REFREEZE AT NIGHT. THERE IS A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT PRECIP WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW WE
WILL HAVE SOME 20 POPS BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL
FROM SOME LINGERING FREEZING DRIZZLE.

IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL GET A LITTLE BREAK MID WEEK BUT ANOTHER
STRONG SYSTEM IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY WEATHER BUT TIMING
UNCERTAINTIES ARE HIGH RIGHT NOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO FINE TUNE
THE LATE WEEK FORECAST.

NOTE ON SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATION IN GRIDDED AND GRAPHICAL PRODUCTS...

SLEET IS CONSIDERED SNOW FOR ACCUMULATION PURPOSES.
FREEZING RAIN GENERATES ICE ACCUMULATION AND EXCLUDES SLEET.

DUNN

[Ntxw]

Woo go NWS FW on thunder sleet and 850mb front! Good discussion

[TheProfessor]

And so it begins

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth says significant winter storm possible, huh?

Wow, who would have thought that was possible just a few days ago?!?

[Ntxw]

Shreveport finally puts up WSW's for Northeast Texas. Get your bread and milk.

[Texas Snowman]

Shreveport finally puts up WSW's for Northeast Texas. Get your bread and milk.

Walmart Alert in Effect! Don't get run over as the crowds come running!

[dhweather]

I'm still not sold on there being enough moisture to support a winter storm warning, maybe just a winter weather advisory. Guess we will find out soon as the afternoon package comes out.

If you'd just waited 10 minutes later before hitting that submit button....

Well, they sound like they are in agreement with this:


THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

Rockwall County probably gets < 0.25 accumulated whatever. The Northwest half of the FWD CWA probably gets 1" or more.

[aggiecutter]

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

* EVENT...A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED GENERALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 AND A MIX OF MAINLY SLEET WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN
IS EXPECTED BETWEEN INTERSTATE 30 AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM
JACKSONVILLE TEXAS TO FLORIEN LOUISIANA. THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COULD BE AS HIGH AS TWO
INCHES ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 30. FREEZING RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE
QUARTER OF INCH SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 30.

* TIMING...WINTRY PRECIP SHOULD BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 30 AND WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AS TEMPERATURES
REMAIN BELOW FREEZING.

* IMPACT...ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET...SNOW...AND ICE MAY CAUSE
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES ON AREA ROADWAYS PARTICULARLY ON BRIDGES AND
OVERPASSES. ICE ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE ONE TENTH OF AN INCH MAY
CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES AS POWER LINES AND TREES BECOME
LADEN WITH ICE.

[ColdFusion]

I'm still not sold on there being enough moisture to support a winter storm warning, maybe just a winter weather advisory. Guess we will find out soon as the afternoon package comes out.

If you'd just waited 10 minutes later before hitting that submit button....

Well, they sound like they are in agreement with this:


THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WILL REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW DUE TO MORE UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS.

Rockwall County probably gets < 0.25 accumulated whatever. The Northwest half of the FWD CWA probably gets 1" or more.

I deleted my comment after I noticed you didnt live in the Dallas warning area. If only I'd waited 1 more minute before hitting that submit button...

[aggiecutter]

From Shreveport AFD:

THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...TOTAL SLEET AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS
NORTH OF I-30. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BETWEEN ONE TENTH AND ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH.

[Ntxw]

Areas to the east, Rockwall county and Kaufman etc will probably get a winter storm warning its timing issues. When FW says uncertainty it is more for the southeastern part of the CWA with warmer temps 30F+ thus accumulations is uncertain

[Portastorm]

I'll give credit to FWD ... at least they're willing to make a call and pull the trigger on something. My local NWS office never makes the call until it's too late and they couch their AFDs with plenty of "check back often as the forecast might change" caveats.

[TheProfessor]

They definitely issued the watches and warnings a lot earlier this year than last year.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not many times that I remember an extended period of precip with temps below 29, but that looks like what we are looking at on Monday. I would love for the mid levels to turn out a couple degrees cooler than modeled so we can get a good snow, but may have to wait until late in the week for that.

[dhweather]

I'm still here......

[orangeblood]

Not many times that I remember an extended period of precip with temps below 29, but that looks like what we are looking at on Monday. I would love for the mid levels to turn out a couple degrees cooler than modeled so we can get a good snow, but may have to wait until late in the week for that.

A pretty remarkable setup taking shape for this part of the world....freezing rain/sleet followed by snow a couple of days later, keep in mind this late Feb, not January! No let up in sight on the long range models, heat miser been awfully quiet the past 2 days since he declared winter over after this coming week!

On a personal note - leaving Saturday to ski southwestern Colorado on what looks like will be 4 feet of fresh powder! incredible pattern

[somethingfunny]

Did the temperatures bust today? The cold front has already passed and we are at 47 now, we were supposed to hit 70 today. I wonder how that may affect Sunday?

Temperatures up in the D-FW metroplex areas had already reached the upper 60s before the front moved through. No bust.

It could still bust, overnight gfs runs had the afternoon warming back up to near 60.

Big temperature bust today... I thought even with the front we were gonna be in the low 60s in the afternoon(maybe dropping into the 50s but not the 40s)

at 4am:


TODAY WILL REMAIN WARM AND BREEZY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH
COLDER AIR SPREADING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES.

Just thought I'd mention that we reached 60 degrees in the afternoon sunshine and it was a one last beautiful day for us.

[TheProfessor]

The WRF is showing some high precip totals, and the precipitation hasn't even ended yet.

[Snowman67]

Per the latest NWS forecast, Tomball (just northwest of Houston) is now forecasted to hit 32F Monday night/early Tuesday morning. It appears that parts of SE may see some form of frozen precip with this system.