Texas Winter 2024-2025

[orangeblood]

It’s coming and Austin will be under the gun. I know because I’ll be in Round Rock for a tournament that weekend. Looking forward to freezing on the soccer field Sunday and Monday.

One of many reasons why I’m not the biggest fan of the youth club soccer world…January February soccer tournaments . Is it really the end of the world if they don’t play during those 2 months??

You have no idea. We practiced Tuesday (below freezing/windy) but not Thursday(fields shut down because of snow). I’m with you that they need a break but we have a new coach and I can’t say a word about anything. Any feedback from the parents is highly discouraged. Had a tournament in Florida in December as well. Gotta get those points and watch our rankings rise.

It’s a culture shock…we pulled our young kids out of club soccer for these reasons. Too much particularly if they play other sports and Texas continues to string together winters like this every few years.

[Throckmorton]

Throckmortom that’s is completely wrong, the 850 mb temperature on both the GEPS/ EPS can tell a whole different story

The GEFS mean for temperature at 850 mb is showing nothing radical.

[Quixotic]

One of many reasons why I’m not the biggest fan of the youth club soccer world…January February soccer tournaments . Is it really the end of the world if they don’t play during those 2 months??

You have no idea. We practiced Tuesday (below freezing/windy) but not Thursday(fields shut down because of snow). I’m with you that they need a break but we have a new coach and I can’t say a word about anything. Any feedback from the parents is highly discouraged. Had a tournament in Florida in December as well. Gotta get those points and watch our rankings rise.

It’s a culture shock…we pulled our young kids out of club soccer for these reasons. Too much particularly if they play other sports and Texas continues to string together winters like this every few years.

Gonna keep it up until he says he no longer wants to do it. The only thing that’ll make him quit is losing or his friends quit. We have a fallback just in case but it won’t be any different. Only joined club because he wasn’t being challenged in rec. oh well, I hope I’m a good luck charm for Austin. Bring on the snow!

[Stratton23]

Throckmorton thats just the GEFS, the EPS/ GEPS are in agreement, this pattern has large potential of delivering a significant arctic outbreak

[Cpv17]

Throckmorton thats just the GEFS, the EPS/ GEPS are in agreement, this pattern has large potential of delivering a significant arctic outbreak

People aren’t gonna buy in till they see the GFS/GEFS align with the others.

[txtwister78]

"Historic" is such a high benchmark to meet in weather to begin with, but you don't need historic arctic outbreaks to bring about real problems impacting life and property down here. There were several outbreaks in the 80's that if occurred today due to population changes/energy demand could bring significant impacts across the state. Outside of 85, most were just brutally cold/drier.

Ensembles at this range (particularly the EPS and GEPS) are brutally cold. When ensembles begin to show that several days out, you take note. So regardless of what one may consider historic, the risk remains for significant impactful cold to effect Texas perhaps as early as this weekend into next week.

Good news is we still have several days to monitor before we can be more certain of how cold and what if any precip falls.

[orangeblood]

Throckmorton thats just the GEFS, the EPS/ GEPS are in agreement, this pattern has large potential of delivering a significant arctic outbreak

People aren’t gonna buy in till they see the GFS/GEFS align with the others.

Even though I’m not the biggest GFS fan, it does bring a plausible scenario in play….tightly wound PV that keeps the coldest anomalies northeast of southern plains. Latest GEFS showing this and still backing its OP. But all that being saiid, Vegas odds are on the Euro with a 500 mb pattern at this time range

[Iceresistance]

Good lord, the 0Z ECMWF is hopefully Jester, because I really don't want another 2021 caliber event.

Ditto! It was catastrophic here in Austin. I was lucky to have power but had no water for a week. When one smells worse than one's dogs after a period of time ... the "fun" part of winter weather fades quickly.

As they say, it's all fun and games until the power goes out or run out of water

[HockeyTx82]

Here are some dramatic and catchy names for the upcoming cold weather event in Texas:

1. **The Texas Tundra Tempest**
2. **The Lone Star Deep Freeze**
3. **The Great Texan Ice Age**
4. **The Frigid Frontier Fury**
5. **The Blue Norther Blast**
6. **The Texas Arctic Invasion**
7. **The Frozen Texan Wrath**
8. **The Polar Texan Tempest**
9. **The Lone Star Polar Plunge**
10. **The Texas Glacier Grip**
11. **The Texan Cryogenic Chill**
12. **The Big Freeze of 2025**
13. **The Icy Armageddon**
14. **The Lone Star Frost Fest**
15. **The Texan Tundra Takeover**

Feel free to use any of these names to build up the anticipation for the upcoming historic cold weather. Stay warm and stay safe!

[Cpv17]

Throckmorton thats just the GEFS, the EPS/ GEPS are in agreement, this pattern has large potential of delivering a significant arctic outbreak

People aren’t gonna buy in till they see the GFS/GEFS align with the others.

Even though I’m not the biggest GFS fan, it does bring a plausible scenario in play….tightly wound PV that keeps the coldest anomalies northeast of southern plains. Latest GEFS showing this and still backing its OP. But all that being saiid, Vegas odds are on the Euro with a 500 mb pattern at this time range

This is why I’m still hesitant myself. I’m not completely sold yet.

[Throckmorton]

"Historic" is such a high benchmark to meet in weather to begin with, but you don't need historic arctic outbreaks to bring about real problems impacting life and property down here. There were several outbreaks in the 80's that if occurred today due to population changes/energy demand could bring significant impacts across the state. Outside of 85, most were just brutally cold/drier.

Ensembles at this range (particularly the EPS and GEPS) are brutally cold. When ensembles begin to show that several days out, you take note. So regardless of what one may consider historic, the risk remains for significant impactful cold to effect Texas perhaps as early as this weekend into next week.

Good news is we still have several days to monitor before we can be more certain of how cold and what if any precip falls.

Perhaps you have a different concept of "brutally cold" than me. As of their last runs, none of the ensemble means show the breaking of Jan. 21st low temperature records in Dallas, Austin, Amarillo, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Houston

I'm not talking about grid impacts. Instead, I'm referring to temperatures in the historical record.

[Nederlander]

Hearing reports that wxman’s wall suffered substantial damage from this latest cold spell. He has been rushing to send reinforcements, but is starting to lose hope, and is on the verge of calling for a full retreat and abandoning the wall due to an incoming Siberian invasion.

[Cpv17]

The latest Euro had me down to 10°F. The coldest I got in Feb 21 was 14°F and the Feb 21 outbreak was considered historic in my eyes. So if it even gets remotely close to that, then yeah, I’d consider it brutal and borderline historic. It’s very rare you get temps down here what the Euro and CMC have.. very rare.

[TropicalTundra]

Here are some dramatic and catchy names for the upcoming cold weather event in Texas:

1. **The Texas Tundra Tempest**
2. **The Lone Star Deep Freeze**
3. **The Great Texan Ice Age**
4. **The Frigid Frontier Fury**
5. **The Blue Norther Blast**
6. **The Texas Arctic Invasion**
7. **The Frozen Texan Wrath**
8. **The Polar Texan Tempest**
9. **The Lone Star Polar Plunge**
10. **The Texas Glacier Grip**
11. **The Texan Cryogenic Chill**
12. **The Big Freeze of 2025**
13. **The Icy Armageddon**
14. **The Lone Star Frost Fest**
15. **The Texan Tundra Takeover**

Feel free to use any of these names to build up the anticipation for the upcoming historic cold weather. Stay warm and stay safe!

You completely forgot “To Freeze or not to Freeze”

[txtwister78]

"Historic" is such a high benchmark to meet in weather to begin with, but you don't need historic arctic outbreaks to bring about real problems impacting life and property down here. There were several outbreaks in the 80's that if occurred today due to population changes/energy demand could bring significant impacts across the state. Outside of 85, most were just brutally cold/drier.

Ensembles at this range (particularly the EPS and GEPS) are brutally cold. When ensembles begin to show that several days out, you take note. So regardless of what one may consider historic, the risk remains for significant impactful cold to effect Texas perhaps as early as this weekend into next week.

Good news is we still have several days to monitor before we can be more certain of how cold and what if any precip falls.

Perhaps you have a different concept of "brutally cold" than me.

I'm not talking about grid impacts. Instead, I'm referring to temperatures in the historical record.

Perhaps we do, but I don't really understand what that has to do with the overall point I was making? To me and I'll repeat, impacts to life and property when it comes to any type of weather event are more important than a ranking on some data analog and so attempting to categorize or label something before it's occurred is a pointless exercise anyway despite what models show at this range in your view or mine.

If the general public is widely impacted by a winter weather event (loss of power, pipe bust, traffic accidents due to winter precip etc) I can assure you most won't really care how you or I categorize it afterward. Lol. That was the point.

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 12Z run):

32–13...(48–B03)...B02...0.94...Amarillo
40–24...(52–14).....17......0.12...Austin Camp Mabry
36–20...(51–10).....07......0.35...Dallas
41–27...(54–18).....16......0.16...Houston
31–13...(47–B01)...B03...0.59...Oklahoma City
31–13...(46–B01)...B01...0.59...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would break or get very close to the existing record lows.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 18Z run):

35–17...(56–02)...B02...0.19...Amarillo
42–33...(55–22)...17.....0.09...Austin Camp Mabry
39–28...(51–17)...07.....0.19...Dallas
47–39...(58–29)...16.....0.07...Houston
33–22...(49–10)...B03...0.16...Oklahoma City
32–20...(48–09)...B01...0.28...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, none of these stations except Amarillo and Austin Camp Mabry would get close to the existing record lows.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 21st along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 12th, 12Z run):

24–04...(36–B05)...B02...1.50...Amarillo
30–20...(39–10).....17......0.91...Austin Camp Mabry
29–18...(40–09).....07......1.06...Dallas
34–24...(64–15).....16......0.55...Houston
22–09...(42–B03)...B03...1.22...Oklahoma City
21–08...(38–B03)...B01...1.38...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations except Dallas would tie or break the existing record lows.

[Throckmorton]

Here are some dramatic and catchy names for the upcoming cold weather event in Texas:

1. **The Texas Tundra Tempest**
2. **The Lone Star Deep Freeze**
3. **The Great Texan Ice Age**
4. **The Frigid Frontier Fury**
5. **The Blue Norther Blast**
6. **The Texas Arctic Invasion**
7. **The Frozen Texan Wrath**
8. **The Polar Texan Tempest**
9. **The Lone Star Polar Plunge**
10. **The Texas Glacier Grip**
11. **The Texan Cryogenic Chill**
12. **The Big Freeze of 2025**
13. **The Icy Armageddon**
14. **The Lone Star Frost Fest**
15. **The Texan Tundra Takeover**

Feel free to use any of these names to build up the anticipation for the upcoming historic cold weather. Stay warm and stay safe!

"Whether to hype or not to hype. That is the question."
"Nothing between Texas and Arctic cold except barbed wire fences."
"But they said the grid has been fixed!"

[rwfromkansas]

Hopefully it will still dig in the SW and bring precip. Busy today. Lol

[gboudx]

Here are some dramatic and catchy names for the upcoming cold weather event in Texas:

1. **The Texas Tundra Tempest**
2. **The Lone Star Deep Freeze**
3. **The Great Texan Ice Age**
4. **The Frigid Frontier Fury**
5. **The Blue Norther Blast**
6. **The Texas Arctic Invasion**
7. **The Frozen Texan Wrath**
8. **The Polar Texan Tempest**
9. **The Lone Star Polar Plunge**
10. **The Texas Glacier Grip**
11. **The Texan Cryogenic Chill**
12. **The Big Freeze of 2025**
13. **The Icy Armageddon**
14. **The Lone Star Frost Fest**
15. **The Texan Tundra Takeover**

Feel free to use any of these names to build up the anticipation for the upcoming historic cold weather. Stay warm and stay safe!

Winter Storm Boaty McBoatface

[Ntxw]

0z ICON continues on the western camp with late this weekend's system and accompanying early cold front.