Pacific Northwest Weather

[Guest]

Thankyou for standing up Invisible... At least someone else sees what I am seeing..

And TT, this whole time you have been talking about it being such a normal month... And so many times i have said YES, the ending numbers show that the month was average... But i have also said that you need to look at the patterns that have produced those numbers... Sort of like my mom use to tell me, YOU ONLY HEAR WHAT YOU WANT TO HEAR.... With you its, "you only read what you want to read"

And Snowwizzard just uncovered this golden site just last week... It is going to be a huge helper for the upcoming days, weeks, years....

It's a bummer you don't have this tool TT.

[andycottle]

Quite a nice day outside! Though watching the Cumulus Congestus clouds building late this afternoon....there may be some showers over the central cascades. And looking at the radar loop, there was a hefty thunder storm with lots of lightning just a little south of Mt.Rainier....per MM5 lighting data.

-- Andy

[Guest]

R-dub... You need to look deeper into the month than just the rainfall for the first half and the sunny weather the second half... In a month in the pacific northwest it is either rainy or sunny... Rain and Sun are both normal, but there isn't anything else that can happen besides those two things... Its either sunny, or there are clouds and precip... besides some high clouds or partly cloudy skies there isn't anything in between. So by saying it was rainy the first half and sunny the second half, that isn't saying much.

TT/R-dub... There are two different types of normal that we are looking at here...

YOU are looking at the final numbers... The average for the whole month... That is not what i am talking about... I have said it time after time that i know the monthly average temperatures are going to be right around normal... What i am talking about is what has happened during the past month to get us to those normals...

Sure you can say now that all the month is done and look back and say hey, its nice out, i'm feelin good, the numbers are just about right, it seems like a pretty normal month.... I GOT SNOW ON APRIL 12th ... One of the things that i have noticed this month is that we have been getting trough's followed by ridges, followed by a trough again... It isn't just zonal where the jet goes a little north or a little south and then back to us again like the 2nd half of march... The upper air patterns have been very impressive throughout the month, the temperatures have not been.

[AnthonyC]

Brennan,

Just stop the arguing. You keep expressing your point, yet you show no evidence or true support. Explain to us how this particular April is any different than past Aprils. If you can gather some true statistics and support, maybe I'll buy your opinion. Until then, you keep reiterating the same thing...and it's getting annoying.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

O.K... I am clearly dealing with some emotionally unstable people here.

Specifically...

Snow_Wizzard
Brennan


Invisible... Brennan keeps wanting me to back up what I say. He comes on here telling me how dramatic this pattern is and that he has "proof". But will not share it. Yet... I shared all the evidence pointing towards a cooler than normal summer and a warmer than normal winter. And I am the one ruining this forum??? Are we on the same planet here??

Randy, Anthony, Andy, Andrew... all are sane, rational human beings. All seem to be genuine people.

I thought Snow_Wizzard was pretty normal... but it appears he is wound up WAY too tight and obsessive about weather extremes to be objective. Then he bails on this forum. Why??? Because I do not get so wrapped up trying to prove we are constantly on the verge of some epic weather event???

Brennan... your comments speak for themselves.

I am sure I can find the site with historical 500mb maps. And if the pattern is so similar why would you not want to share your evidence??

This has become a little too far from normal conversation for me.

I can just imagine the conversations between Snow_Wizzard and Brennan. Like two paranoid conspiracy theorists locked in a dark room positive that the world is coming to an end and the rest of society is clueless.

Trust me... I am not angry. It just seems a little insane to constantly have this argument with a 16-year old kid. I really think you are bored and like trying to pick fights. Whatever.

I find weather fascinating. I have a pretty good understanding of weather patterns. It has always been fun and lighthearted for me. Even when I was very young. This is way too much wasted energy.

[PurdueWx80]

Why aren't you guys talking about the severe weather down near Vancouver, WA???

[andycottle]

Hey guys! Check out radar! Nice little storm cell moving slowly off the cascades and may be heading my way. I have heard some distant thunder...a few rumbles actually. And storm cell looks pretty good!
http://radar.wrh.noaa.gov/radar/loop/DS ... katx.shtml

-- Andy

PS: Tim....thanks for your good comment about me. Thank you!!

[andycottle]

Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
726 PM PDT WED APR 27 2005

WAZ006-007-280325-
EVERETT AND VICINITY-SEATTLE METROPOLITAN AREA-
726 PM PDT WED APR 27 2005

.NOW...A THUNDERSTORM OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN SNOHOMISH COUNTY SOUTH OF
MONROE WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DUVALL BY 8 PM. THE STORM WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FURTHER SOUTHWEST. EXPECT BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF SMALL HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

$$

FELTON

[TT-SEA]

Quite a bit of historical data here...


http://meteo.ist.utl.pt/~jjdd/LEAMB/LEAmb%20TFC%20site%20v1/1999-2000/ASimoes/All%20DSS%20Datasets.htm


Or wait... lets act like a 4-year with a toy they want to keep to themselves!!

[R-Dub]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SEATTLE WA
617 PM PDT WED APR 27 2005

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0614 PM HAIL GLENOMA 46.52N 122.15W
04/27/2005 0.50 INCH LEWIS WA LAW ENFORCEMENT

FROM LEWIS COUNTY SHERIFF. HAIL FALLING IN GLENOMA AND
RANDLE

[TT-SEA]

Purdue.. mentioning severe thunderstorms in April would be 100% proof that next winter will be a mini ice-age!!

Trust me.

The weather in the PNW and the pattern over North America is always zonal.

Late season snow in the Rockies and Plains caused by a deep trough to our east... that has never happened before. Remember its always zonal and always calm.

Has it ever snowed in Denver in late April????? Ever????? That is not possible. Oh wait... snow during April and May happens almost every year in Denver. Caused by a deep trough to our east.

Well.. THIS YEAR it means a mini ice-age is coming!! Yeah!!!

[PurdueWx80]

LOL
That's more like it!

[invisible]

TT-SEA... i dont mean to blame u for the reason that u apart down this forum. U just want to keep talking about the month of April to snow_wizzard and Brennan. Wizzard maybe will come back if u just stop talking about the weather of April. The month is almost over. We can start discussing about May. Maybe it will be much more postive.

It looks like we will be in dry pattern for next two weeks. In the middle of May maybe we will be in wet pattern for two weeks. I have noticed that the weather changed a lot comparing last spring. It looks like we enter a cold phase like 30 years ago.

[andycottle]

Randy, Tim and all...

Here`s a few shots of the T-strom that fired up over the cascades late this evening. I saw a distant lightning strike that was cloud-to-cloud, and was probably about 5, 6miles away. So really, it was to far for me to call it in and give details of what I saw....due to of not really being exactly sure of where storm was occuring. Ok...here`s the pics I took from atop Hollywood hill.

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... pg&.src=ph

-- Andy

[invisible]

Cool pictures, Andy. U always gave us many great pictures.

[TT-SEA]

Invisible... thats cool.

It was Snow_Wizzard that kept going on and on about how important April is to the following winter.

Now that April will end close to perfectly normal they need to find some other evidence of the intensely cold winter that is sure to be coming.

According to Snow_Wizzard... May and June are "indifferent"... but a cold April is one of the strongest signs of an amazing winter on the way.

Now they are trying to go "behind the numbers" and show that such an amplified pattern is strange. But it is this type of amplified pattern that brings late season snows to the Rockies even into June. Almost EVERY single year.

Now the implication has been made that the pattern in the PNW is almost always zonal. That is a complete lie. The pattern is always amplifying and then relaxing to zonal and then amplifying again.

Even Don Sutherland got into the debate once about strange patterns that happen almost every April and May during the transition between winter and summer.

If you listen to them long enough you will start to believe that every pattern outside of straight zonal with perfectly normal temperatures is a sign of things to come.

Andy - cool pictures!!

[andycottle]

Thank you Tim and invisiable! If it were for me being on here, you all would probably never know what kind of weather I`m having or had in my area. Now aren`t ya glad you have me here?

-- Andy

[andycottle]

Despite morning fog/low clouds till around late morning....this after and evening was just great! And what I didn`t expect was the t-storm popping up. But hey...at least I had a fun time wacthing the clouds build up. BTW...my high today was 73 with a low of 50.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Andy... your posts are always great. And you're a pretty good photographer as well.

[andycottle]

Oh well thank you Tim! That is what I have been told....that I`m really good at taking pics and that I see things in a specail way that one would otherwise just pass up and not stop to think about taking pic or two.

-- Andy