Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[jasons2k]

PTrackerLA beat me to the punch line

Joe B has posted "TEXAS BEWARE". The next 15-25 day period will be the coldest of the Winter with an active subtropical jet that will bring several snow threats down to the I-10 corridor. Texas will get a hammering according to Joe. We shall see.

So, just to clarify....some questions:

Did Joe indicate this would be the coldest of the winter in terms of absolute temps, or in terms of averages? That can be a big difference, especially the later we get into February.

We've already had the coldest temps here since 1996. Getting even colder than that would be a quite impressive...and surpising.

[jasons2k]

Here is a good local writeup on the potential for winter weather in SE Texas next week. Some comments from a local met too:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _week.html

[Portastorm]

Here is a good local writeup on the potential for winter weather in SE Texas next week. Some comments from a local met too:

http://blogs.chron.com/sciguy/archives/ ... _week.html

Nice piece. Thanks for sharing it, Jason. At first I thought Berger might be writing due to JB's blog since I know he talks to him. Cool to see the local Impact Weather referenced. Very interesting.

[wxman22]

For what its worth 12z GFS shows temps in the low 30's with plenty of precip around at Hooks. It seems the GFS continues to remain consistent on its advertising of a winter storm late next week...lets see if the trend continues.

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KDWH

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I have a confession to make.... Right now i'm finishing up school in Nacogdoches, so between Mon and Thursday i would love to see a snow event here! Im a senior and i havent seen a significant snowstorm here yet. It snowed and stuck on the grass during the freak Easter storm, but other than that we have had numerous cold spells and only a couple ice storms. So I'm for a big snowstorm between Monday and thursday! 6z was beautiful and very close to us as far as the time frame.

Main thing, the cold is coming down. Very active El nino leaves a good chance for some snow.

[Ntxw]

Not that I'm expecting much on Monday, but the GFS can't seem to stick to a solution consistently other than it's going to get cold and there's going to be a system. Gah!!!

[rhoby13]

Does anyone have a link to Bastardi's blog/comments ya'll are referring to?

[Ntxw]

Does anyone have a link to Bastardi's blog/comments ya'll are referring to?

It's the professional membership section, paid service. Simply put he thinks Texas is the bulls-eye location in the south for winter fun this month.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like Corpus might get some interesting weather next week too.

As if not today's tropical force winds and blowing rain is not enough along with a onehour power outage here at my office.

I will say JB has been pretty much spot on this winter with different events around the country and in particular Texas and Florida cold. Yea, he's blown a few big calls in year's past, but he's batting pretty darn good this winter.

[wxman57]

Here's a meteogram for the DFW area for the next 168 hours. Nothing significant according to the 12Z GFS:



And nothing significant for Houston through 168 hrs. Looking beyond 168 hrs, there is nothing in the 12Z GFS to suggest any freezing/frozen precip in Houston:

[HockeyTx82]

I noticed tomorrow the high temps are mid to upper 30's around my part. Does anyone see any chance of that rain going to frozen and the temps being brought down?

Just wishing......

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not that I'm expecting much on Monday, but the GFS can't seem to stick to a solution consistently other than it's going to get cold and there's going to be a system. Gah!!!

I have a feeling that the GFS will zero in on a snow event for Sunday/Monday and be consistent with it. Thats what happened with the Dec 4th snow event if i recall. Before the models were consistent on that Friday being the day for snow, it was pointing to Dec 7th or 8th being the day of the event.I came home and the local met said "Snow Friday" and was like, "no its supposed to be Monday or Tuesday!" Lol, the same thing could happen here

[wxman57]

I noticed tomorrow the high temps are mid to upper 30's around my part. Does anyone see any chance of that rain going to frozen and the temps being brought down?

Just wishing......

See my charts above. With dew points also in the mid to upper 30s, there won't be any room for temps to drop.

[somethingfunny]

I'm loving this! Mostly everybody is convinced this is another false alarm except Portastorm, who listed 4 reasons why this one ought to be real.

Of all people, I'm sure you know........

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzVDDSfeeA[/youtube]



Hey, I feel good about this one too. Closer to Valentine's than the Super Bowl. And if it doesn't happen here, I'm hitting I-35 Northbound until it gets shut down and I'll build a snowfort to sleep in on the side of the highway, wherever I end up.

[Ntxw]

That's a good one. It's Portastorm's last gasp for winter and the pattern is giving him the chance. Of course until it is several days out no way to know how it will set up. One thing to note is the blowtorch depicted for this time frame isn't coming into fruition as it's been quite cool starting February and looks to continue.

[DentonGal]

That's hysterical somethingfunny! Poor Port! Crossing my fingers for him anyway!

[Portastorm]

Oh ... somethingfunny ... don't you know it's the truth! As Homer Simpson would say: "It's funny because it's true." Nice post.

But you know, I would like to think that my optimism for next week is based more on meteorological knowledge and less on desperation. I am growing more confident that at least my part of the state will experience wintry weather before next week is finished.

Yes, I'm rummaging through the hall closet for my kicking shoes and making sure I have Lucy's number on speed dial!

[wxman57]

I do agree that it looks like another major winter weather event next week. Currently, I'm thinking it'll be centered from central OK to southern KS eastward across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri then eastward across the TN Valley/southern OH valley to the East U.S. Coast. I don't see a significant storm for Texas (yet). By significant, I mean freezing rain that knocks power out to large areas or ice accumulation on roadways that makes driving dangerous over large areas. GFS, Euro and Canadian are all in agreement on that general area.

[Portastorm]

I do agree that it looks like another major winter weather event next week. Currently, I'm thinking it'll be centered from central OK to southern KS eastward across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri then eastward across the TN Valley/southern OH valley to the East U.S. Coast. I don't see a significant storm for Texas (yet). By significant, I mean freezing rain that knocks power out to large areas or ice accumulation on roadways that makes driving dangerous over large areas. GFS, Euro and Canadian are all in agreement on that general area.

Which event ... the early week or late week event?

The 12z Euro dumps a huge amount of cold air into Texas by 168 hours and has a massive trough just to our west. My simple understanding of weather tells me that should create a lot of winter weather for much of the state one week or so from now.

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html

[wxman57]

I do agree that it looks like another major winter weather event next week. Currently, I'm thinking it'll be centered from central OK to southern KS eastward across northern Arkansas/southern Missouri then eastward across the TN Valley/southern OH valley to the East U.S. Coast. I don't see a significant storm for Texas (yet). By significant, I mean freezing rain that knocks power out to large areas or ice accumulation on roadways that makes driving dangerous over large areas. GFS, Euro and Canadian are all in agreement on that general area.

Which event ... the early week or late week event?

The 12z Euro dumps a huge amount of cold air into Texas by 168 hours and has a massive trough just to our west. My simple understanding of weather tells me that should create a lot of winter weather for much of the state one week or so from now.

http://www.met.sjsu.edu/weather/ecmwf.html

I'm talking about Next Mon-Tue - early. Cold air could be a bit farther south if there is a late week event (12th-13th). But VERY LOW confidence on that event. Little model consistency from run to run.