Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Brandon8181]

Yup, they have us here in Tyler warming up to 38; however we are still at 27. I don't see it getting above 31-32. No bit of sun at all. We haven't been above freezing now since Wednesday afternoon.

NWS updated the highs for today. 36F for Longview and 35F for Tyler. Both still look to be too high. Temperatures have not budged this morning at all, and I don't see much to suggest that changes very much.

Strong CAA is advecting from the North with 1040+ pressures in the central and northern plains. Temps dropping in Mexico, no one outside of El Paso is going to warm up much in Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/afPD8jz.gif

Why does the weather service keep letting these temps bust? I mean if they were playing black jack they would be in really bad shape. I get the first time, maybe the second time, but within this same system they must be seeing that the daily highs are not making it (and the nightly lows are lower than predicted)... What are they missing?

[HockeyTx82]

If I'm reading those GFS maps for snow totals correctly could DFW north be looking at almost 2ft?

Like the Denton area......

[Ntxw]

NWS updated the highs for today. 36F for Longview and 35F for Tyler. Both still look to be too high. Temperatures have not budged this morning at all, and I don't see much to suggest that changes very much.

Strong CAA is advecting from the North with 1040+ pressures in the central and northern plains. Temps dropping in Mexico, no one outside of El Paso is going to warm up much in Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/afPD8jz.gif

Why does the weather service keep letting these temps bust? I mean if they were playing black jack they would be in really bad shape. I get the first time, maybe the second time, but within this same system they must be seeing that the daily highs are not making it (and the nightly lows are lower than predicted)... What are they missing?

I can't speak for the NWS and I don't understand fully their process but they rely greatly on statistical forecasting it seems. It's the conservative approach and in a lot of cases works well. This is just a situation where how low can it go just simply wins, the most unrealistic solutions become realistic.

[weatherdude1108]

Thank goodness that cluster of freezing precip in the Hill Country is dissipating. Have had quite enough of this ice... and it's only the beginning...

I had several large tree limbs in backyard succumb to weight of ice yesterday, within a 2 hour period. One medium size one fell on edge of roof, but rolled off onto ground. They literally fell while I was walking out there! Some neighbors also dealing with same thing, and parking their trucks in street away from trees in their driveway. I just got done moving them to a location of yard with gravel (not grass) to saw up later, weather permitting. They were heavy!

Also wrapped outside spigots with towels (exposed portions), overlaid with bubble wrap and duct tape, leaving end of spigot open for dripping. They are on outside wall of house, one on north side which gets frozen easily.

I never thought I would say this, but I'm already tired of Winter weather (based on yesterday), and trying to survive the next week.

We put the styrofoam covers on ours ... was thinking of wrapping them inside the covers. Is dripping them better? Knock on wood they have never frozen but then again we haven’t seen this kind of cold in this house either

I don't know honestly. The one on north side of house has frozen WITH the spigot cover in the past. So I have dripped it since. This time, I wrapped it and dripping it, given the single digit forecast, which I hope is warmer. Ugh.

[BigD938]

If I'm reading those GFS maps for snow totals correctly could DFW north be looking at almost 2ft?

Like the Denton area......

I’m with you, these maps are crazy but they keep winning out. Just wonder how much snow is gonna be on the ground after these two systems pass.

[txtwister78]

[Captmorg70]

If I'm reading those GFS maps for snow totals correctly could DFW north be looking at almost 2ft?

Like the Denton area......

Someone could end up that high of an amount, but it’s hard to say. A lot of the big totals are coming from the Wednesday storm. Which is still 5 days out.

For us in Ponder, let’s hope for 4”+ in that first storm. From there we can dream about those higher totals once we get inside 48hrs.

[rwfromkansas]

The Euro dry slot over DFW is hilarious. I will be hacked off if it happens, doubt it will. That's how insane this is that we would be bummed about 2 inches of snow *though that would likely be more like 4 due to ratios, which is perfectly fine with me. Completely covered ground*.

[Cerlin]

I know it seems like it can be a home run with this system (and it likely is) but keep in mind what the globals were showing 48-72 hours out for DFW with the last snow event. I wouldn’t be surprised if a monster 12 inch snowstorm dumps on Dallas...but I also wouldn’t be totally shocked for only a 3 inch snowstorm. Dry air can be a tricky variable for models to handle and dry air seems to just be really present along the red river this year.

However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be optimistic. Personally, I think DFW is gonna shatter the snow drought in spectacular fashion—but just take every model with a grain of salt.

[Tammie]

From Joe Bastardi on Twitter:

Before major hurricanes we see an army of power trucks heading toward where the hurricanes are going. If it were up to me, there would be snow-fighting equipment heading south toward Texas Ok, Ark as these people could be immobile for days

[WacoWx]

The Euro dry slot over DFW is hilarious. I will be hacked off if it happens, doubt it will. That's how insane this is that we would be bummed about 2 inches of snow. Lol.

It eerily aligns with a graphic NTWX posted the other day from the NWS, I think.

[Iceresistance]

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio snowfall, most of Oklahoma is from ratios 15:1 to 30:1

[Brent]

I know it seems like it can be a home run with this system (and it likely is) but keep in mind what the globals were showing 48-72 hours out for DFW with the last snow event. I wouldn’t be surprised if a monster 12 inch snowstorm dumps on Dallas...but I also wouldn’t be totally shocked for only a 3 inch snowstorm. Dry air can be a tricky variable for models to handle and dry air seems to just be really present along the red river this year.

However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be optimistic. Personally, I think DFW is gonna shatter the snow drought in spectacular fashion—but just take every model with a grain of salt.

I do think the ratios will help us though not to mention how cold it's gonna be it's not like we'll lose half of it to melting

Not saying I expect a foot but I would be surprised to see only a couple inches

[orangeblood]

The Euro dry slot over DFW is hilarious. I will be hacked off if it happens, doubt it will. That's how insane this is that we would be bummed about 2 inches of snow *though that would likely be more like 4 due to ratios, which is perfectly fine with me. Completely covered ground*.

Not sure how we can give any credence to this model at this point in time...it has been the absolute worst of the bunch, from extreme temp busts to forecasting over an inch of rain 48 hours out across DFW for yesterday and they barely received a trace! Throw it out!

[txtwister78]

The Euro dry slot over DFW is hilarious. I will be hacked off if it happens, doubt it will. That's how insane this is that we would be bummed about 2 inches of snow *though that would likely be more like 4 due to ratios, which is perfectly fine with me. Completely covered ground*.

Seems to be creating a secondary along/over the coast and that is the reason for some bands setting up over I-35 corridor S Central/Central Texas points east where moisture will be a little higher.

[Ntxw]

I know it seems like it can be a home run with this system (and it likely is) but keep in mind what the globals were showing 48-72 hours out for DFW with the last snow event. I wouldn’t be surprised if a monster 12 inch snowstorm dumps on Dallas...but I also wouldn’t be totally shocked for only a 3 inch snowstorm. Dry air can be a tricky variable for models to handle and dry air seems to just be really present along the red river this year.

However, that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be optimistic. Personally, I think DFW is gonna shatter the snow drought in spectacular fashion—but just take every model with a grain of salt.

I do think the ratios will help us though not to mention how cold it's gonna be it's not like we'll lose half of it to melting

Not saying I expect a foot but I would be surprised to see only a couple inches

It to reiterate the NWS plead, 3" or 12" is a fancy number (sure we would love 12") but blowing and drifting snow and visibility is an issue. Even if we take Euro at face value, account for ratio and cold surface temps you're still within 4-8" range of the consensus.

[utweather]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/mGhF8VZ/3-ACD8743-093-D-41-D5-9-C05-73-BDE62-B5522.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/31sjR1M/69-D31339-367-E-465-D-A0-C9-4523-FBED5-C4-A.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/0KjdPJL/62-C417-D7-8796-4-FC5-8578-F46-CD5-C25410.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/p0ftGqz/DF217865-48-AD-4156-B0-FA-C11-D51-DE28-DA.jpg [/url]


Welcome to the Arctic tundra, err Austin...

27F. Another model bust LOL

Oh man, I'm sorry to see that. I've got 5 20 year oak trees myself that have some big long limbs that will snap or worse if we get a heavy ice storm. Fingers crossed for mainly snow.

[rwfromkansas]

Even 4 inches can create strong drifts with powdery snow. I would easily expect at least foot or maybe two drifts from that in spots.

[TheProfessor]

Strong CAA is advecting from the North with 1040+ pressures in the central and northern plains. Temps dropping in Mexico, no one outside of El Paso is going to warm up much in Texas.

https://i.imgur.com/afPD8jz.gif

Why does the weather service keep letting these temps bust? I mean if they were playing black jack they would be in really bad shape. I get the first time, maybe the second time, but within this same system they must be seeing that the daily highs are not making it (and the nightly lows are lower than predicted)... What are they missing?

I can't speak for the NWS and I don't understand fully their process but they rely greatly on statistical forecasting it seems. It's the conservative approach and in a lot of cases works well. This is just a situation where how low can it go just simply wins, the most unrealistic solutions become realistic.

They use climatology as well and that can really bite them in the butt in a situation like this when you have to throw it out the window.

[Ntxw]

The Euro dry slot over DFW is hilarious. I will be hacked off if it happens, doubt it will. That's how insane this is that we would be bummed about 2 inches of snow *though that would likely be more like 4 due to ratios, which is perfectly fine with me. Completely covered ground*.

Not sure how we can give any credence to this model at this point in time...it has been the absolute worst of the bunch, from extreme temp busts to forecasting over an inch of rain 48 hours out across DFW for yesterday and they barely received a trace! Throw it out!

This was Euro's run last weekend that brought this thread into a panic on super bowl Sunday, temp for Tuesday.