Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[CaptinCrunch]

I'm not going to dig through the thread but last week I posted about a ice/snow event for NTX around the 11-13th time period. I think I said that mid last week, either way next week wont be the last big shot at wintery precip for TX. Looking at another chance around the 17-19th time frame as well, and yes even onto early March, winter not over by a long shot for TX.

[iorange55]

GFS 12z already looks warmer I'm not getting excited just a few days ago we thought maybe Monday, but it turns out Monday won't be anything special.


Seems like this winter has had a lot teases.

[Portastorm]

Argh!!! Wouldn't you know it? Wouldn't you just know it!

The dang GooFus 12z run ... much warmer for Texas through 156 hours.

The natural question in my mind is: messed-up run or is it latching onto a change which will negate our wintry fun next week?

[CaptinCrunch]

Argh!!! Wouldn't you know it? Wouldn't you just know it!

The dang GooFus 12z run ... much warmer for Texas through 156 hours.

It's just 1 run so far, still many runs till next weeks event, I woulden't lean either way on this right now.

[AggieSpirit]

Yeah it looks consistent for a Dallas snowstorm now. Looking at maybe more than 10"? Wow. Still early though for us SE peeps. Although, it seems like one region always misses out on the fun :/

If I saw 10 inches of snow on the ground here in the DFW area, it would definitely be a first.

I remember 7 inches on Valentines day a few years ago in Southwest Arlington/Kennedale when I lived there.

[Portastorm]

My mid-morning depression has been abated somewhat by Wxman57's post on the "local forum" in that his long-range colleague says the 12z GFS is probably worth disregarding due to how its handling larger features.

The 12z Canadian is still advertising the event for next week ... at least through 144 hours ... as it dumps colder air into the state and has the southwest low working its way to Texas.

Living and dying on every GFS run is no way to go through life!

[iorange55]

I noticed it did look a little weird after mid next week, so I wouldn't trust it. Still though I'm not excited about next week I'm too tired of getting excited :[


lol it's tiring.

[Ntxw]

I hope the previous runs does come into fruition though, that would be a nice prolonged system of snow for north Texas and fun for everyone else too. A little bit of what everyone ordered . Or Portastorm, it could be the usual hiccup of the GFS losing\changing the event heading into the medium range =o!

[msstateguy83]

porta i have been real busy this am how much snow is the canadian showing up my way for next week??

[Portastorm]

porta i have been real busy this am how much snow is the canadian showing up my way for next week??

If you're talking about the 12z CMC ... I dunno. Free access only goes through 144 hours (Wednesday morning) on the Penn State E-wall site. No precip at the end of the run but the cold air is in place.

[Portastorm]

Well, the 12z Euro is coming out now and I'm already seeing enough through 120 hours that suggests the 12z GFS should be thrown in the trash can. The Euro blasts cold air down into the Southern Plains and Texas by midday Tuesday of next week. So the model agreement between the Euro, the Canadian, and the previous two days of GFS runs says "Game On!" for next week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[Ntxw]

Well, the 12z Euro is coming out now and I'm already seeing enough through 120 hours that suggests the 12z GFS should be thrown in the trash can. The Euro blasts cold air down into the Southern Plains and Texas by midday Tuesday of next week. So the model agreement between the Euro, the Canadian, and the previous two days of GFS runs says "Game On!" for next week.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

Get your kicking shoes ready Portastorm!

[iorange55]

Looks like the storm up north next week is trying to shove some of the colder air east.

[Ntxw]

There goes that for today, EC wants to pull out the cold air faster (though I think it already did last run? Hard to tell with free data). The disturbance in the southwest doesn't look as strong as previous runs.

[Portastorm]

There goes that for today, EC wants to pull out the cold air faster.

Yeah Ntxw, I saw that too. Up until 120 hours it looks great ... and then off it goes with the colder air. I think I'm at the point with next week where I'll leave the model interpretation up to the pros like Wxman57, txagwxman, or wall_cloud!

I'm really at a loss now.

[jasons2k]

Seems like a repeat of what we had last weekend where initially, it looked pretty cold on the models...but the coldest air went off to the east.

[orangeblood]

This storm for late next week is falling apart.

[HockeyTx82]

So just like that it's all over?

[wxman57]

I think it's pretty clear that the GFS remains clueless about the pattern beyond about 4-5 days. That's where it significantly diverges from the Euro. In fact, at 168 hours, the 500mb pattern of the GFS is almost the exact opposite of the European. We'll have to wait 3-4 more days to gain some confidence about the pattern late next week.

[Portastorm]

So just like that it's all over?

Over? Did you say "over"?

Nothing's over until Wxman57 says it is!