Texas Winter 2017-2018

[Ralph's Weather]

:uarrow: Yeah it's likely going to take a heavy burst of snow to see any accumulations in north TX. Current temps where the radar is showing some light snow and sleet is in the mid 30s. Don't think we will see more than a dusting across most of north TX.

This event will be dependent on the strength of convection. Heavy snow is expected briefly. Temps are plenty cold for that to stick (same temps were observed in S & SE Texas a month ago) and they will drop this evening as the band moves east of DFW.

Some pretty good rain in E TX right now along and ahead of the front. This is a strong shortwave that is kicking off good precip all over the place.

[Theepicman116]

Doesn’t the windchill factor into whether snow sticks or not? Because wouldn’t that factor into the winter weather advisory? Or is that something I made up in my head to get me to think that the snow will stick and getting a snow day?

[orangeblood]

HRRR is still missing the returns out west of DFW. My guess is that FWD is seeing something in the models that would indicate QPF even though the models aren't outputting any QPF. Maybe saturation in the column combined with CSI indicating that slantwise convection would be possible to produce snow bands or some other short lived mesoscale features that the models might not be grasping.

Enough to warrant a WWA ? IMO, this is a situation where you wait until real observations are made and then issue advisories accordingly...way too premature when you have ZERO support from your forecast tools

[bubba hotep]

FWD is getting reports of sleet in Comanche and Young Counties.

Go Snow! Go!

[Ralph's Weather]

HRRR is still missing the returns out west of DFW. My guess is that FWD is seeing something in the models that would indicate QPF even though the models aren't outputting any QPF. Maybe saturation in the column combined with CSI indicating that slantwise convection would be possible to produce snow bands or some other short lived mesoscale features that the models might not be grasping.

Enough to warrant a WWA ? IMO, this is a situation where you wait until real observations are made and then issue advisories accordingly...way too premature when you have ZERO support from your forecast tools

Agreed, but guess they wanted to get the word out as we he seen local spots get hammered in the past and we could be seeing rush hour heavy snow if trend continue.

[gboudx]

Doesn’t the windchill factor into whether snow sticks or not? Because wouldn’t that factor into the winter weather advisory? Or is that something I made up in my head to get me to think that the snow will stick and getting a snow day?

Windchill only affects people and animals. That's why it's a "feels like" temperature.

[Theepicman116]

Doesn’t the windchill factor into whether snow sticks or not? Because wouldn’t that factor into the winter weather advisory? Or is that something I made up in my head to get me to think that the snow will stick and getting a snow day?

Windchill only affects people and animals. That's why it's a "feels like" temperature.

I feel like an idiot now.

[wxman22]

Even though the GFS and CMC are mostly dry, the 12z Euro is still showing a wintry mix for parts of Southeast Texas fwiw.

image?

I’m not sure if I can post it here because it’s on a paid site..., but it shows a wintry mix across the northern half of southeast Texas with a very cold rain with temps in the mid to low 30s across the rest of Southeast Texas.

[JayDT]

Tom Bradshaw who apparently works for the NWS here in DFW tweeted 2 tweets a few mins ago regarding the snow/sleet potential here later...

“Key issue with today’s unfolding snow/sleet event in N TX: Any precip will be VERY BRIEF, but could also be HEAVY (or showery). Background upper level conditions are definitely there for this. #dfwwx #txwx”

“Slick spots today in N TX today will be dependent on where any brief heavy sleet/snow bands set up. And..what road temps are & what pretreatment conditions may exist.“

Those are his tweets.

[CaptinCrunch]

Areas of precipitation are beginning to develop along a line from Nocona to Graham to Comanche, and are moving towards the east at about 15-20 MPH. Light sleet is being reported with some of these bands of precipitation, but no accumulations are occurring yet as temperatures remain above freezing. Light sleet may begin impacting areas immediately north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex by 4-5 PM this evening.

[TheProfessor]

Doesn’t the windchill factor into whether snow sticks or not? Because wouldn’t that factor into the winter weather advisory? Or is that something I made up in my head to get me to think that the snow will stick and getting a snow day?

Windchill only affects people and animals. That's why it's a "feels like" temperature.

I feel like an idiot now.

Don't, we all do it. Sometimes you hear something and in your head it makes sense, even though it's not factual. That's what these forums are for, to share and learn about the weather.

[JayDT]

The DFW NWS just posted an animation on twitter of what the radar might look like later.. I have no idea how to post it here though lol

[JayDT]

I will say that animation looks like it gives precisely Dallas and Tarrant counties a pretty good shot for some snow/sleet too

[gpsnowman]

I will say that animation looks like it gives precisely Dallas and Tarrant counties a pretty good shot for some snow/sleet too

Sure does. And the coverage seems to widen as it approaches DFW ever so slightly.

[gboudx]

Doesn’t the windchill factor into whether snow sticks or not? Because wouldn’t that factor into the winter weather advisory? Or is that something I made up in my head to get me to think that the snow will stick and getting a snow day?

Windchill only affects people and animals. That's why it's a "feels like" temperature.

I feel like an idiot now.

Eh, don't. Others may have wondered the same thing, but didn't want to ask.

[JayDT]

I will say that animation looks like it gives precisely Dallas and Tarrant counties a pretty good shot for some snow/sleet too

Sure does. And the coverage seems to widen as it approaches DFW ever so slightly.

I noticed that as well.. So I guess thats why theyre sticking with the Winter Weather Advisory then

[EnnisTx]

I will say that animation looks like it gives precisely Dallas and Tarrant counties a pretty good shot for some snow/sleet too

Sure does. And the coverage seems to widen as it approaches DFW ever so slightly.

I noticed that as well.. So I guess thats why theyre sticking with the Winter Weather Advisory then

Doesn't look like it's moving overly fast on the animation and it does expand and intensify around Tarrant County. Right in my neck of the woods, or should I say metro area.

[Tejas89]

Don't feel bad about windchill. It seems most people believe it affects inanimate objects the same as people. I got into a "debate" once with regard to vehicle outside temperature.. i.e. "why isn't it colder the faster we go?"

Hoping we see some flakes this afternoon. :fingerscrossed:

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Alright, just saw the snow on the radar, here it comes!

Now we dont have to here the Ntx crew cry anymore!!!! Hahaha, enjoy it fellas!

[Theepicman116]

Alright, just saw the snow on the radar, here it comes!

Now we dont have to here the Ntx crew cry anymore!!!! Hahaha, enjoy it fellas!

We weren’t crying! We were moping around and whining. There’s a difference.