Texas Winter 2020-2021

[funster]

Powdery snow does compact some over time, especially on roads where slick ice patches can from in temps like these with people repeatedly driving over it. I remember a storm in NC and for days after it people had to drive down this one hill one at a time because it became so slick.

[Ntxw]

The Euro dry slot over DFW is hilarious. I will be hacked off if it happens, doubt it will. That's how insane this is that we would be bummed about 2 inches of snow *though that would likely be more like 4 due to ratios, which is perfectly fine with me. Completely covered ground*.

Not sure how we can give any credence to this model at this point in time...it has been the absolute worst of the bunch, from extreme temp busts to forecasting over an inch of rain 48 hours out across DFW for yesterday and they barely received a trace! Throw it out!

This was Euro's run last weekend that brought this thread into a panic on super bowl Sunday, temp for Tuesday.

https://i.imgur.com/5kjlKJn.png



https://i.imgur.com/7qf7m4R.png

VS King GFS. We called it crazy for wild maps. Maps gotten wilder since.

[Iceresistance]

Last 12z Model post for 2.12.2021

12z Euro has Storm #2 more Potent over Central & SE Texas . . .



NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Most of Oklahoma is between Ratios 15:1 & 30:1

[Ntxw]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1133 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Saturday/

Key Messages (now through Saturday):

(1) Isolated bands of lake effect snow have developed near some of
the lakes across North Texas. Some of these snow bands may result
in localized reductions in visibility to less than one mile, and
quick snow accumulations of up to one-half inch.

(2) Patchy freezing drizzle is expected to develop across much of
North and Central Texas after midnight, and persist through
Saturday morning.

(3) Temperatures will remain well below freezing through Saturday
(and indeed for several days thereafter), meaning any additional
precipitation will result in more ice accumulation that will
remain on the ground for several days.

(4) Travel conditions will remain hazardous through tonight and
for several more days.

Morning surface analysis shows that the Arctic air mass in place
across much of the interior CONUS continues to advance slowly out
over the Gulf of Mexico. The vast majority of the CWA remains well
below freezing, with Dallas/Fort Worth International Airport
(KDFW) reporting a temperature of 24 F and a wind chill of 10 F as
of this writing. It seems likely that DFW Airport (the official
climate site for the Metroplex) will remain below freezing today,
and for the next several days, setting up what looks to be one of
the longest streaks at or below freezing in city history. The
all-time record streak of 295 consecutive hours (12 days and 14
hours) below freezing set December 18-30, 1983 appears safe, but
we could easily end up with the second (211 hours) or third (178
hours) longest streak. DFW Airport has been below freezing since 8
p.m. on Tuesday, February 9, so at noon today, we will be at 64
consecutive hours below freezing, with still a very long way to
go.

In the near term portion of the forecast, gusty northerly winds
and rich boundary layer moisture have allowed for some lake effect
snow bands to develop over the relatively warm lakes this morning.
While we are not anticipating any widespread impacts, brief and
localized visibility reductions to less than one mile will be
possible. Because the snow is so localized, we opted not to
include it in the official grids, and just cover it with a
Special Weather Statement and DSS messaging products.

Late tonight, the combination of continued near-saturated profiles
in the boundary layer and modest warm air advection around 850 mb
is expected to lead to the development of patchy drizzle across
much of the CWA. The expected onset is around or a little after
midnight. Because surface temperatures will be well below
freezing (lows in the upper teens to mid 20s), any drizzle that
develops will quickly result in additional ice accumulations. As
we saw with the tragedy in Fort Worth on Thursday, even slight
accumulations can cause major impacts. In addition, with
temperatures staying below freezing, this new ice accumulation
will be on top of any ice that is already present. For this
reason, we believe a Winter Weather Advisory is necessitated to
message this threat.

Freezing drizzle will continue into Saturday morning, and should
dissipate by noon as warm air advection wanes. Precipitation
chances look to increase again, with more substantial
accumulations possible, beginning Saturday evening with conditions
deteriorating into Sunday, but this will be covered by this
afternoon`s long-term forecast package. Stay tuned.

Godwin

[captainbarbossa19]

Last 12z Model post for 2.12.2021

12z Euro has Storm #2 more Potent over Central & SE Texas . . .

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/floop-ecmwf_full-2021021212.prateptype_cat_ecmwf.us_sc.gif

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, Most of Oklahoma is between Ratios 15:1 & 30:1

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/sn10_acc.us_scb96ba685102fd016.png

The Euro has had a warm bias lately too. I am not convinced that the warm front is going to come as far north as the Euro is showing. I would not be surprised if freezing precipitation is shifted further south as we get closer to Storm #2.

[BallsEleven]

South Louisiana about to get thumped hard by some ice. Looks like Texas will get the fun snow.

Lake Charles might get crippled again for a 3rd time.

[South Texas Storms]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean has the 2 inch snow line now reaching as far south as IH-10 from San Antonio to Houston.

[txtwister78]

Euro ENS seem to fit with operational run

[JDawg512]

it's after 1, still waiting for the ice to melt off the trees. I'm hoping if not today then maybe tomorrow before the next system moves in. My biggest worry is the next round will make things a lot worse if our trees are still coated.

[Texas Snow]

Icon kind of has that SW/NE dry slot as well. NAM somewhat but further east a bit. Gfs does not. Hope it’s not a trend that shorts someone while folks on either side get much more. Lots more to happen.

[Ntxw]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean has the 2 inch snow line now reaching as far south as IH-10 from San Antonio to Houston.

Further south trends consistently wins. It's pretty clear too since cold air in place is so strong against guidance. Luckily here for those as far north as Oklahoma, ratios help along with strong isentropic lift from the Arctic boundary.

[bubba hotep]

FWD coming a WWA later for freezing drizzle overnight, it's the right thing to do but people are going to be like, "Wait, what? Are we under a Winter Storm Watch or a Winter Weather Advisory" and FWD will be like, "umm, both"

[Ntxw]

FWD coming a WWA later for freezing drizzle overnight, it's the right thing to do but people are going to be like, "Wait, what? Are we under a Winter Storm Watch or a Winter Weather Advisory" and FWD will be like, "umm, both"

You have to ask how much of a factor the big crash in FW yesterday played a role. Normally a special weather statement highlighting risk is what they do in the past instead of WWA.

[Ralph's Weather]

Icon kind of has that SW/NE dry slot as well. NAM somewhat but further east a bit. Gfs does not. Hope it’s not a trend that shorts someone while folks on either side get much more. Lots more to happen.

Slot may be from the energy transferring into the coastal low that develops early Monday morning. ICON and Euro are further SE over the Gulf with it than the GFS. Canadian is more diffuse with the energy allowing lighter precip over a larger area. It seems that the mid week system will track a bit further NW which would fill in the hole.

[orangeblood]

ERCOT might have some MAJOR ISSUES on it's hands early next week, this will test our Energy Grid beyond anything we've probably ever seen before!!!

[orangeblood]

Euro ENS seem to fit with operational run

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-c00/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613131200/1613433600-woXbQPKlsKs.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/ecmwf-ensemble-avg/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613131200/1613541600-3vnsPC8nhOs.png

To be expected, that model appears to continually have the same flawed input variables run into it!!

[Ralph's Weather]

ERCOT might have some MAJOR ISSUES on it's hands early next week, this will test our Energy Grid beyond anything we've probably ever seen before!!!

That is wat I am afraid of. They may be calling for electricity conservation by early next week.

[Portastorm]

it's after 1, still waiting for the ice to melt off the trees. I'm hoping if not today then maybe tomorrow before the next system moves in. My biggest worry is the next round will make things a lot worse if our trees are still coated.

Most areas in Travis County remain at or below freezing and that's probably as "warm" as we are going to get today. Unfortunately both the HRRR and the NAM show temps tomorrow not rising above freezing. Tomorrow's round will make things a lot worse. Our only hope is that we get more sleet and less freezing rain out of the deal.

[WacoWx]

Weather Channel app calling for 5-8” Sunday night now.

[orangeblood]

ERCOT might have some MAJOR ISSUES on it's hands early next week, this will test our Energy Grid beyond anything we've probably ever seen before!!!

That is wat I am afraid of. They may be calling for electricity conservation by early next week.

Rolling brown outs appear like a high probabilty