Texas Winter 2020-2021

[Wntrwthrguy]

Does the NWS San Antonio/Austin office expect to release a balloon to get a more accurate depiction of the atmospheric temp profile? I feel like it would be extremely important to know how large the warm nose is to be able to forecast p-type tomorrow into Sunday and Monday.

[Iceresistance]

Big snowflakes flying around, ground is almost completely white with the snow, 15°F

[Quixotic]

IMBY, we have not been above freezing for 80 hours already. Assuming that will continue until Thursday. That would give us 272 hours total, approaching 1983 (294 without looking it up).

[EnnisTx]

ERCOT might have some MAJOR ISSUES on it's hands early next week, this will test our Energy Grid beyond anything we've probably ever seen before!!!

That is wat I am afraid of. They may be calling for electricity conservation by early next week.

AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

[Portastorm]

Does the NWS San Antonio/Austin office expect to release a balloon to get a more accurate depiction of the atmospheric temp profile? I feel like it would be extremely important to know how large the warm nose is to be able to forecast p-type tomorrow into Sunday and Monday.

They release weather balloons at the automated Del Rio site as needed.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro Ensemble Mean has the 2 inch snow line now reaching as far south as IH-10 from San Antonio to Houston.

Further south trends consistently wins. It's pretty clear too since cold air in place is so strong against guidance. Luckily here for those as far north as Oklahoma, ratios help along with strong isentropic lift from the Arctic boundary.

I'm really starting to think that the snow boundary will be a lot closer to the coast. Euro shows temperatures around 40 Sunday morning in the Houston area. Meanwhile, the HRRR shows temperatures about 34 then. Based on what has happened so far, I am much more inclined to side with the HRRR.

[Ralph's Weather]

IMBY, we have not been above freezing for 80 hours already. Assuming that will continue until Thursday. That would give us 272 hours total, approaching 1983 (294 without looking it up).

I am not hopeful that we see freezing by Thur even. For NE TX I think it will be Sat afternoon, but even then it may be borderline.

[Ntxw]

Big snowflakes flying around, ground is almost completely white with the snow, 15°F

Around the metroplex light flurries/snow grains reports is becoming more numerous.

[Quixotic]

Big snowflakes flying around, ground is almost completely white with the snow, 15°F

Around the metroplex light flurries/snow grains reports is becoming more numerous.

Yeah, I think the "freezing drizzle" tonight will end up being frozen when it lands. Graupel, snow grains or flurries. In this cold, they can blow all over the place.

[TropicalTundra]

A winter dream and nightmare, all in the same photo...

[ZeroGee]

This is what’s happening in East Plano right now.

Big snowflakes flying around, ground is almost completely white with the snow, 15°F

Around the metroplex light flurries/snow grains reports is becoming more numerous.

Yeah, I think the "freezing drizzle" tonight will end up being frozen when it lands. Graupel, snow grains or flurries. In this cold, they can blow all over the place.

[WinterMax]

ERCOT might have some MAJOR ISSUES on it's hands early next week, this will test our Energy Grid beyond anything we've probably ever seen before!!!

That is wat I am afraid of. They may be calling for electricity conservation by early next week.

Why would this particular electric company struggle more than others? Just curious.


AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

[captainbarbossa19]

A winter dream and nightmare, all in the same photo...

https://i.imgur.com/Uilozo6.jpg

You definitely don't see a low of -3 very often for an outlook in Temple.

[Iceresistance]

All but McCurtain County in Oklahoma is under a Winter Storm Watch, something I've not seen in a long time . . .

NWS-Norman

[serenata09]

Sun looks like it is trying to peek out in Richardson.

[Iceresistance]

Oklahoma Governer Kevin Stitt has declared a State of Emergency ahead of this storm.

https://www.news9.com/story/6026dc1cd81c8a0bc0153dd6/gov-stitt-declares-state-of-emergency-due-to-winter-storm

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM coming in with a deeper system at 500mb. This should be interesting...

[starsfan65]

12z NAM coming in with a deeper system at 500mb. This should be interesting...

This is the 18z NAM run.

[EnnisTx]

That is wat I am afraid of. They may be calling for electricity conservation by early next week.

Why would this particular electric company struggle more than others? Just curious.


AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

They supply about 90 % of the power for Texas.

[cheezyWXguy]

12z NAM coming in with a deeper system at 500mb. This should be interesting...

This is the 18z NAM run.

Ha, good catch. Corrected