Texas Winter 2014-2015

[Portastorm]

GFS is getting colder low to mid 20s most of tomorrow, that is a big problem even if the precip is light. Hope it is snow because the sleet will stick to the roads like glue with those temperatures. Aloft it continues to look colder.

What's it showing for the Austin area?

I was gonna ask along those lines as well. I'm currently in College Station wondering what this might mean for us as well in terms of temp and p-type

I'm seeing light freezing rain later Monday afternoon into the overnight with patchy sleet for Austin.

[TheProfessor]

ion National Weather Service fort worth tx 928 AM CST SUN FEB 22 2015 Aviation: Update, tafs are pretty much unchanged as timing of major features is on track. I am concerned about the thunderstorms out west because guidance is struggling to pinpoint the instability location and movement. As the 12Z data trickles in, one model advects the instability aloft into the metroplex but another keeps it out west. We will closely watch the trends in guidance/lightning data/radar and if ts becomes a threat for metroplex airports will be quick to amend. As temps cool, any heavy tsra has the potential to cool the lower layers and become tspl.

What are they trying to say? It won't make it here, or it will make it after DFW is below freezing? TIA.[/quote]
It sounds to me line they are not sure if the instability will reach the Metroplex.[/quote]

We are already having heavy rain here, so unless we lose instability here then I think we might get more precip then predicted.

[Brent]

This seems ahead of schedule

David Finfrock ‏@DavidFinfrock 6m6 minutes ago

TXDOT reporting ice beginning to accumulate on brdidges/overpasses on Hwy 287 E of Wichita Falls towards Bowie.

[orangeblood]

Gfs, Euro and particularly the RGEM bring much more instability into the Metroplex compared to the NAM, which is further north...as Ntxw mentioned, anywhere those enhanced bands set up, it could get ugly with temps in the low 20's. Short range models should show a better picture by this evening, as it is within it strike zone by that time

[DonWrk]

That freezing line is getting awfully close to the Red River already.

[wxman57]

What's it showing for the Austin area?

The 12Z GFS indicates a very shallow layer of freezing air over Austin tomorrow, with temps approaching 48F at about 3000 ft above the ground. The very warm "warm nose" over Austin above about 2000 ft indicates freezing rain and sleet. No snow. By Tuesday morning, the freezing layer near the surface is just about gone, and there is additional warming aloft.

[Yukon Cornelius]

That freezing line is getting awfully close to the Red River already.

It's already 29 here along the red river.

[Portastorm]

What's it showing for the Austin area?

The 12Z GFS indicates a very shallow layer of freezing air over Austin tomorrow, with temps approaching 48F at about 3000 ft above the ground. The very warm "warm nose" over Austin above about 2000 ft indicates freezing rain and sleet. No snow. By Tuesday morning, the freezing layer near the surface is just about gone, and there is additional warming aloft.

Yep. Agreed. Our worst 12-hour period will be 6 pm Mon - 6 am Tue. My guess is bridges/overpasses will be in bad shape during that period but roadways should be ok ... unless we end up with more sleet than anticipated. 9z SREF suggests most of Austin's precip will occur prior to 8 pm Monday.

[Ntxw]

What's it showing for the Austin area?

The 12Z GFS indicates a very shallow layer of freezing air over Austin tomorrow, with temps approaching 48F at about 3000 ft above the ground. The very warm "warm nose" over Austin above about 2000 ft indicates freezing rain and sleet. No snow. By Tuesday morning, the freezing layer near the surface is just about gone, and there is additional warming aloft.

Yep. Agreed. Our worst 12-hour period will be 6 pm Mon - 6 am Tue. My guess is bridges/overpasses will be in bad shape during that period but roadways should be ok ... unless we end up with more sleet than anticipated. 9z SREF suggests most of Austin's precip will occur prior to 8 pm Monday.

Surface temps matter too below 30F is efficient for making use of whatever falls, above that requires more qpf. Austin is hovering near freezing says GFS, bridges likely go.

As for North Texas consensus has .30+ inch of qpf below freezing thats good for shutting down especially with those temps. Get under a convective storm and sleet piles up fast.

[gpsnowman]

The temp is starting to drop. Went from 44 to 42 in the last few minutes. Keep it going!

[gpsnowman]

Hey Texas Snowman, what is the temp looking like in your area?

[Texas Snowman]

39 and starting to drop...

[gpsnowman]

Oklahoma City at 25 with north wind around 20.

[srainhoutx]

HGX issues Freezing Rain Advisories basically N of Austin, Waller, Harris, and Chambers Counties.

[TheProfessor]

NWS has my temp at 39, Weather bug has it at 38. I wonder if we might hit freezing earlier than expected?

[Ralph's Weather]

I have been leaving GFS all along and that id's definitely where I lean now ad far as temps and precip placement though I think it is way underdoing amounts. All models are big time busting on temps today and the GFS is the only one that seems to have today's precip close. It has been raining here since this morning and it was not forecasted until this afternoon. Temps have hovered in the low 40s all day now siren into the upper 30s. This is looking as bad as it ever has for us in N and NE Texas and areas further south probably also.

[Shoshana]

Just got back from a dog walk and it was 54 when I went out and 51 now. Doesn't sound all that cold but it felt cold and damp. There was a little mist, light drizzle and a north wind.

Dewpoint is 49.

[Texas Snowman]

Down to 36 in Denison...

[TXsnow]

It's 35.8 here in southern Grayson county. The temperature has been dropping fast.

[Ralph's Weather]

40 and steady rain here temps slowly dropping.

18Z NAM finally on board with how cold it will get now all models seem to be buying a widespread major winter storm. It still has heaviest stiff in SE OK, but .5" over much of NE TX is plenty.