Texas Winter 2020-2021

[TeamPlayersBlue]

For SE TX folk, the air aloft is much too warm to support snow as the precip begins. There is a gap in data where we are, but currently it will be all Frz rain or sleet until surface temps reach about 22-24 degrees at the surface.

[Brandon8181]

Well it will be 3 PM soon and the original forecast is high for Tyler was 38°. The low last night was 27 and it is currently 28. That is a 10° temperature bust. On the afternoon package they lowered the high to 35, but it still did not come close.

[Ralph's Weather]

All but McCurtain County in Oklahoma is under a Winter Storm Watch, something I've not seen in a long time . . .

NWS-Norman
https://s2.gifyu.com/images/Screenshot-2021-02-12-at-2.09.18-PM.png

SHV will issue one sooner or later haha.

[orangeblood]

12z NAM coming in with a deeper system at 500mb. This should be interesting...

This is the 18z NAM run.

Ha, good catch. Corrected

Yeah, NAM starting to go negative tilt which would create a higher QPF event across a wider area...

[Ralph's Weather]

Well it will be 3 PM soon and the original forecast is high for Tyler was 38°. The low last night was 27 and it is currently 28. That is a 10° temperature bust. On the afternoon package they lowered the heart to 35, but it still did not come close.

Yea, the models are not getting a good read on how cold this air mass is at the surface. Its hard for NWS forecasts to deviate much below guidance but I wish they would in this case. you have to wonder if these busts will lead towards a further south track for everything. I'd be nervous especially if I was along and north of I-40. I am happy to be along I-20.

[Cpv17]

For SE TX folk, the air aloft is much too warm to support snow as the precip begins. There is a gap in data where we are, but currently it will be all Frz rain or sleet until surface temps reach about 22-24 degrees at the surface.

Well I hope you’re wrong. If we can’t get snow from this then idk if we’ll ever get snow again. The NWS here is calling for snow.

[bubba hotep]

Feel like this will be the 1st in an epic series of AFDs from FWD. (They all have been good but this is the timeframe when things start really getting real)

[Shoshana]

[Youtube]
[/Youtube]

it's after 1, still waiting for the ice to melt off the trees. I'm hoping if not today then maybe tomorrow before the next system moves in. My biggest worry is the next round will make things a lot worse if our trees are still coated.

Ours is still on the trees too.

[Cpv17]

Winter Storm Watches have just been hoisted for southeast Texas!

[SoupBone]

Why would this particular electric company struggle more than others? Just curious.


AUSTIN, TX, Feb. 11, 2021 – The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) is expecting record electric use as a result of the extreme cold temperatures that have already reached much of the ERCOT region.

"This statewide weather system is expected to bring Texas the coldest weather we’ve experienced in decades," said ERCOT President and CEO Bill Magness. "With temperatures rapidly declining, we are already seeing high electric use and anticipating record-breaking demand in the ERCOT region."

Consumers can monitor grid conditions in real time by following ERCOT on Twitter (@ERCOT_ISO) and/or by downloading the ERCOT mobile app available on Google Play and in the Apple Store.

On Monday, Feb. 8, ERCOT issued an Operating Condition Notice (OCN) for extreme cold weather expected in the ERCOT region Thursday, Feb. 11 through Tuesday, Feb. 16. Subsequently, ERCOT issued an Advisory on Feb. 10 and a Watch on Feb. 11 for extreme cold weather. A Watch is the third level of communication issued by the ERCOT control room in anticipation of potential tight grid conditions.

Generators have been asked to take necessary steps to prepare their facilities for the expected cold weather, which includes reviewing fuel supplies and planned outages and implementing winter weatherization procedures. The grid operator is also working with transmission operators to minimize transmission outages that could reduce the availability of generation or otherwise impact the ability of the system to serve demand.

Based on the current load forecast, and if temperatures continue to decline, ERCOT could set a new all-time winter peak demand record Monday morning, Feb. 15. The current winter peak demand record is 65,915 MW set on Jan. 17, 2018 between 7 and 8 a.m.

They supply about 90 % of the power for Texas.

ERCOT and the whole Texas power grid is about to show everyone how awesome it is, fingers crossed.

I love living in a state with its own power grid.

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Tulsa

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills tonight thru Monday. Wind chills as
low as 20 below zero. Heavy snow expected Saturday night thru
Monday. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Oklahoma.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight Saturday
night to 6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until
midnight CST Saturday night.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The very
cold wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as
little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
conditions.

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and very low wind chills expected. Total snow
accumulations of 5 to 7 inches. Wind chills as low as 15 below
zero.

* WHERE...Portions of east central, northeast and southeast
Oklahoma.

* WHEN...From midnight Saturday night to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The cold
wind chills as low as 15 below zero could cause frostbite on
exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strong and gusty north winds will cause
significant blowing and drifting of snow, and dangerous travel
conditions.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

[Ralph's Weather]

Feel like this will be the 1st in an epic series of AFDs from FWD. (They all have been good but this is the timeframe when things start really getting real)

I would think this is when SHV issues watches. Hope so at least. Still 27, the 37 NWS forecasted will bust big time.

[Ralph's Weather]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

The NAM giving me 1" QPF and only 7" Kuchera. Also flurries or snow grains falling here.

[Brandon8181]

Winter Storm Watches have just been hoisted for southeast Texas!

SHV still napping.

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM

NOTE: 10:1 Ratio Snowfall, most of Oklahoma is under 15:1, 20:1 & 25:1 Snowfall Ratios

[jasons2k]

An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.

[EnnisTx]

18z NAM would be a huge hit. I’m not sure about that dry slot in the metro though, it seems to over exaggerate these. Otherwise, area wide 0.75-1”qpf.

The NAM giving me 1" QPF and only 7" Kuchera. Also flurries or snow grains falling here.

That almost sounds comical with the setup...

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Fort Worth

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM SATURDAY TO 6 PM CST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation expected. Total snow
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of a light
glaze. Strong winds will lead to blowing and drifting snow
reducing visibility to less than one mile at times. Wind chill
factors below zero are forecast on Sunday, continuing into
Monday and Tuesday.

* WHERE...Much of North and Central Texas.

* WHEN...From 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM CST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be dangerous. Hazardous conditions will
persist for several days given the expected prolonged duration
of extremely cold temperatures. The cold wind chills as low as
15 below zero could result in hypothermia if precautions are not
taken.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Travel is highly discouraged on Sunday and Monday. If you must
travel, keep tools necessary for survival in extreme cold in your
vehicle.

[Quixotic]

Winter Storm Warnings up for FWD area.