Texas Winter 2025-2026

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orangeblood
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5241 Postby orangeblood » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:24 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Looks like our next chance of winter weather will come some time in february, next weekends system looks really unimpressive now even in ensembles , too much suppression


This is what I’m worried about continuing deep into February (suppression), it’s this unrelenting + PNA regime that favors the east coast, not the southern plains. Sure we can remain colder than normal but need a ULL to break off the North Pacific jet to have a shot at precip (just like this latest system) but that’s obviously extremely rare. Need the PNA to let up or the negative NAO to relax (stronger SE ridge) to have more consistent shot at precip IMO. Otherwise just plain dry cold, no thanks
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5242 Postby DukeMu » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:24 pm

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5243 Postby bubba hotep » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:28 pm

Looks like DFW has a shot at back-to-back single digit lows tonight and tomorrow.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5244 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:29 pm

Any signs of a more neutral PNA at least? A -PNA seems impossible this winter.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5245 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:31 pm

Cpv17 yes its still cold, the models have trended torward the shortwave getting suppressed, the cold air is there but the system is too far south to meet up with it, that being said their are still ensemble members showing some frozen precipitation across parts of the state, its 5-6 days out so their is still time for changes, as of right now it looks cold and maybe some rain, but still time for better trends to come back
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5246 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:32 pm

Not quite, looks like a + PNA /- AO /-EPO/- NAO pattern for february
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5247 Postby gboudx » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:38 pm

I assume we’re having LES in northern Rockwall. Been having flurries to light snow most of the morning. Nothing measurable but nice to watch.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5248 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:38 pm

Watching NYC and Boston get crushed. Already >6" for NY and Boston is looking at 2 feet incoming.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5249 Postby DukeMu » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:39 pm

So...I believe I've found a (to me at least) mysterious Factor X about the Ozark/Ouachitas "shadow." The lack of height of the hills/mountains wasn't impressive, and the Ozarks are etched by erosion - they aren't classic mountains.

I looked at some wind maps and the polar/arctic air is coming from the Midwest and moving down the plains or the Mississippi River delta. The Ozarks in MO, AR and to some extend the Ouachitas. The shadow has been bugging me a bit, because the Ozark plateau and Ouachitas are 1500 - 2500 feet high at best. The land west of OKC has this level of altitude. Not the rugged obstruction of the Rockies and the Appalachians.

Then, I found a wind energy and terrain map that provide the (now) obvious clue!

So, moving air from a physics standpoint is a fluid and this obeys those rules and even equations. Increased fluid drag would slow advection and could reduce temp drops in the "shadow," at least temporarily.

So the fluid drag of an object or terrain would look like this:

Fd = 1/2 Cd x Ap x rho[density] x v[sqr]

Sorry about the math!

Here, Cd is the coefficient of drag - how rough a surface is. The higher Cd the greater the turbulence and air drag, slowing down the movement.

Ap = the area blocking air movement of the "ruggedness."

The Ozarks are smooth, not rugged, and are a consequence of erosion of part of a plateau

I've attached the map which leads IMO to a surprising answer to this riddle -

As you can see, the Appalachians are riddled with a high Ruggeness Index or obstructions by chains of mountains rising 6500 ft tall. The Rockies have huge obstructions and cause massive turbulence (High Cd and Ap).

Note where high levels of Roughness are (high Cd) which would slow the air. Notice where the roughness of the terrain is low. As an avid map reader and traveloer I know the terrain of everything east of the Rockies pretty well. Note more limited areas of Ruggedness in the Boston Mountains and some of the Ouachitas in AR vs. the Appalacians and Rockies

Where you see high levels of Roughness (which would drag surface air and also contribute to turbulence) are areas of high forestation. The Ozarks and Ouachitas are densely populated with trees as are the Piney Woods. So, the trees are putting a draf on cold advection from the north, especially if the original source of the wind is NNE. The trees make it rough, increasing turbulence and reduction wind speed and advection on the surface.

I should point out that the trees naturally are in areas with greater rainfall and access to gulf moisture. The plains, Mississippi Delta and parts of the Midwest have far fewer trees and forestation.

The windspeed is not surprisingly high in the Great Plains without obstruction or trees!

Image

Image

tl;dr version: The rough and hilly forests of the Ozarks, Ouachitas, and Piney Woods (underappreciated!) form a buffer or windbreak that slows down cold advection in the "shadow."
Last edited by DukeMu on Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5250 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:39 pm

Stratton23 wrote:Not quite, looks like a + PNA /- AO /-EPO/- NAO pattern for february


That +PNA can F off. Weather weenies in the east get plenty of exciting weather as is.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5251 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:40 pm

I’ll take dry cold over 70 plus and swamp ass humidity. Lord knows we will have plenty of that in a few months.
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#NeverSummer

I hibernate when it gets above 75 degrees!

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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5252 Postby Cpv17 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:40 pm

Ntxw wrote:Watching NYC and Boston get crushed. Already >6" for NY and Boston is looking at 2 feet incoming.


So why the higher QPF amounts there and not down here? +PNA I’m assuming?
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5253 Postby Harp.1 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:41 pm

Well, Larry Cosgrove said this morning that this pattern will repeat into March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5254 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:44 pm

DukeMu wrote:So...I believe I've found a (to me at least) mysterious Factor X about the Ozark/Ouachitas "shadow." The lack of height of the hills/mountains wasn't impressive, and the Ozarks are etched by erosion - they aren't classic mountains.

I looked at some wind maps and the polar/arctic air is coming from the Midwest and moving down the plains or the Mississippi River delta. The Ozarks in MO, AR and to some extend the Ouachitas. The shadow has been bugging me a bit, because the Ozark plateau and Ouachitas are 1500 - 2500 feet high at best. The land west of OKC has this level of altitude. Not the rugged obstruction of the Rockies and the Appalachians.

Then, I found a wind energy and terrain map that provide the (now) obvious clue!

So, moving air from a physics standpoint is a fluid and this obeys those rules and even equations. Increased fluid drag would slow advection and could reduce temp drops in the "shadow," at least temporarily.

So the fluid drag of an object or terrain would look like this:

Fd = 1/2 Cd x Ap x rho[density] x v[sqr]

Sorry about the math!

Here, Cd is the coefficient of drag - how rough a surface is. The higher Cd the greater the turbulence and air drag, slowing down the movement.

Ap = the area blocking air movement of the "ruggedness."

The Ozarks are smooth, not rugged, and are a consequence of erosion of part of a plateau

I've attached the map which leads IMO to a surprising answer to this riddle -

As you can see, the Appalachians are riddled with a high Ruggeness Index or obstructions by chains of mountains rising 6500 ft tall. The Rockies have huge obstructions and cause massive turbulence (High Cd and Ap).

Note where high levels of Roughness are (high Cd) which would slow the air. Notice where the roughness of the terrain is low. As an avid map reader and traveloer I know the terrain of everything east of the Rockies pretty well. Note more limited areas of Ruggedness in the Boston Mountains and some of the Ouachitas in AR vs. the Appalacians and Rockies

Where you see high levels of Roughness (which would drag surface air and also contribute to turbulence) are areas of high forestation. The Ozarks and Ouachitas are densely populated with trees as are the Piney Woods. So, the trees are putting a draf on cold advection from the north, especially if the original source of the wind is NNE. The trees make it rough, increasing turbulence and reduction wind speed and advection on the surface.

I should point out that the trees naturally are in areas with greater rainfall and access to gulf moisture. The plains, Mississippi Delta and parts of the Midwest have far fewer trees and forestation.

The windspeed is not surprisingly high in the Great Plains without obstruction or trees!

https://i.postimg.cc/7YVBRB25/Ruggedness-roughness.jpg

https://i.postimg.cc/vTvvpBcY/windmap.jpg

tl;dr version: The rough and hilly forests of the Ozarks, Ouachitas, and Piney Woods (underappreciated!) form a buffer or windbreak that slows down cold advection in the "shadow."


Good stuff! This case was on steroids because flow around the high pressure meant the air coming to the eastern regions was more from the northeast via Great Lakes region, having to traverse this terrain more so than typically seen when it's coming from due north or northwest.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5255 Postby Stratton23 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:45 pm

Honestly, regardless of precipitation chances , its a nice change of pace to have potentially colder temperature’s last through early march, last couple of winters it seems February has ended up being a torch , we will have more opportunities for sure, but definitely loving that at least the cold air will be sticking around for a long time
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5256 Postby Ntxw » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:47 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:Watching NYC and Boston get crushed. Already >6" for NY and Boston is looking at 2 feet incoming.


So why the higher QPF amounts there and not down here? +PNA I’m assuming?


Think so, they also have benefits of both a more direct flow from the gulf and Atlantic. We rely mostly on mid levels from the Pacific crossing Mexico mountains with some gulf inflow at the surface indirectly. Just think of a gulf low but on steroids when it hits the gulf stream for them.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5257 Postby Steve » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:50 pm

ThunderSleetDreams wrote:I’ll take dry cold over 70 plus and swamp ass humidity. Lord knows we will have plenty of that in a few months.


Y’all are winter junkies. It’s 70 here in Florida about to hit 26 by tomorrow morning with 25-30mph winds. I’m going to have to go ahead and side with I like 70 better. I don’t mind cold by this time of year but raw bites.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5258 Postby rylo7956 » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:53 pm

Ntxw wrote:DFW recorded 1.5" (snow/sleet) yesterday, doesn't count what happened after midnight. That marks a 6 year streak of 1" or greater since 2021! That hasn't happened since the 1920s. Couple of stretches came close in 70s and 80s.


I have a magic snow beard that is making it happen. When my daughter was 5 she hadn't seen any snow since she was a couple months old so I told her that if I grow a beard it will make it snow. LOL Needless to say every winter I get a request to grow a beard.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5259 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 25, 2026 1:59 pm

Ntxw wrote:Watching NYC and Boston get crushed. Already >6" for NY and Boston is looking at 2 feet incoming.


Boston hasn't seen snowfall of more than 6 inches since 2022. Crazy.
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Re: Texas Winter 2025-2026

#5260 Postby rwfromkansas » Sun Jan 25, 2026 2:00 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Stratton23 wrote:Not quite, looks like a + PNA /- AO /-EPO/- NAO pattern for february


That +PNA can F off. Weather weenies in the east get plenty of exciting weather as is.


EXACTLY. Come on man. They get all the good stuff.
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