Texas Winter 2010-2011

[northtxboy]

ok I am back and the power came back on,,,

[srainhoutx]

30 degree drop in an hour. Not too shabby.

[Kelarie]

In less than 30 mins temp has gone from 59 to 46.

[WeatherNewbie]

Maybe it's just me, but the roads don't look that bad...yet. Will all of this sleet congeal together soon?

don't fall for it. it is nasty out there and you do not want to drive on it unless you absolutely have to.

[MSUDawg]

time to hit the sack for a little while..the fun has come and past..now time for the COLD

[srainhoutx]

Email from Jeff

Memorable arctic outbreak arriving across the region this morning.



Hard Freeze Warning issued for all areas for tonight



Wind Advisory issued for all areas through late this evening



Winter Storm becoming likely Thursday night/Friday with accumulations of snow



Discussion:

Much talked about arctic outbreak is here with a powerful front cutting SE TX in half this morning with temperatures falling into the 30’s from the upper 60’s within a few minutes of the fronts arrival. Blizzard conditions ongoing over W TX into N TX and OK with howling NW winds (temperatures in the teens and 20’s, wind chills in the -10 to 0 range). In fact roughly 100 million residents across the plains and Midwest will see more than 1 foot of snow and blizzard conditions today.



Arctic boundary is way ahead of model timing and will be off the coast by 800-900am. Very strong NW winds of 30-40mph will develop behind the initial damaging winds along the leading edge of the squall line.



Will break out impacts for wind and temperatures and then break out forecast time periods below.



Wind Advisory:

Massive arctic surface high building down the plains will result in a powerful pressure gradient with very strong winds howling well into tonight. These winds will drive wind chills into the 1’s and 10’s this afternoon and evening (a rare experience for those this far south). Sustained NW winds of 25-35mph with frequent gusts of 45mph will be likely today and into tonight. Winds should finally begin to relax into the 15-20mph range early Wednesday.



Hard Freeze Warning:

Hard Freeze warning is in effect for the entire area (all counties) for tonight into Wednesday. Forecasting lows in the mid to upper 10’s over our northern counties to lower 20’s central to upper 20’s at the beaches and on the island. Areas north of HWY 105 will be below freezing for up to 20 hours, north of US 59 16 hours and along the coast 6-8 hours. Will see similar cold lows again on Thursday and Friday mornings.



Winter Storm Threat (Thursday/Friday):

Confidence is growing that a winter storm will affect the region Thursday night and Friday. Impressive upper level trough over the northern Rockies will drop southward into the base of the long wave trough over the SW US allowing the piece of energy to deepen into an upper level low. Cold arctic dome will be firmly entrenched over the region with forecast soundings showing freezing/subfreezing profiles for the entire area. ECMWF and CMC continue to be slower with the ejection of this trough and will side with the stronger and slower solution (GFS and NAM are fastest)> The GFS was too fast on the Sunday system and SW US upper troughs tend to eject slower than models project. The slower motion of the trough will allow a greater period of moisture to pool and advect into the 850-700mb region ahead of the trough. Feel the models (especially the GFS) is too dry in the 500-700mb layer (ice growth layer) and that more moisture than being shown will be available. Large scale deep layer lift will begin Thursday afternoon with increasing clouds and lowering cloud bases. Should start to see sleet/snow develop along the Rio Grande River and near Corpus Christi by early evening and then spread/develop N/E overnight. Combination of isentropic lift in the deep cold dome and potential for low to mid level frotogenic forcing points toward the formation of multiple meso scale snow bands (similar to Dec 2004). Surface dewpoints will be in the 10’s and low level dry layer will wet bulb as the precipitation starts keeping surface temperatures below freezing for the entire event. Far south, NW Gulf surface low will develop and has the potential to bring a slight 850mb warm nose back toward the coastal locations early Friday morning which may result in P-type changing to or mixing with IP (sleet). Dominant P-type will be snow for all other locations away from the beaches.



Accumulations:

Looks like we indeed will see accumulations with this event. CMC is by far the wettest model and the GFS the driest with the ECMWF in the middle. Will go wetter than the GFS but not as bad as the CMC just yet. Dec 04 snowstorm looked the same way on the models (moisture starved up until the event started and then bam). Looks like accumulations will be possible across the entire region with the best chances in a band from W of Corpus Christi to Victoria to Wharton. Still too early to talk totals, but a rough early estimate with a 10:1 ratio (usually we are closer to 7:1 down here, but with such cold temperatures the normal ratio may work out better) would be about 1-3 inches south of I-10 on the ground. If the CMC is correct we would be talking 6-8 inches across much of the area…a blizzard by our standards!



12-Hour Forecasts (Today through Friday):



North: along and north of a line from Brenham to Conroe to Livingston

Central: along and north of a line Victoria to Sugar Land to Humble to Liberty

South: inland coastal counties to US 59

Coastal: beaches



Today:

Showers and thunderstorms before noon following by rapidly falling temperatures. NW winds 30-35mph with gust of 45mph. Wind chills in the 10’s and 20’s early falling into the 1’s and 10’s by sunset. Temperatures falling into the 30’s all areas by mid afternoon and upper 20’s north.



Tonight:

Hard Freeze Warning in effect. Cloudy and windy with NW winds 20-25mph and gusty. Wind chills in the 1’s and 10’s.

Lows:

North: 16-19

Central: 20-24

South: 25-28

Coastal: 28-30



Wednesday:

Mostly cloudy and very cold with NW winds of 15-20mph.

Highs:

North: 30-34

Central: 33-37

South: 35-38

Coastal: 36-39



Wednesday night:

Mostly cloudy and very cold with NW winds of 10-15mph

Lows:

North: 17-20

Central: 22-25

South: 26-28

Coastal: 28-30



Thursday:

Increasing clouds and continued very cold. N winds 10-15mph

Highs:

North: 32-35

Central: 34-37

South: 35-38

Coastal: 36-40



Thursday night:

Cloudy with snow developing. Chance of snow 50%. Snow may mix with sleet near the coast and south of Victoria. Accumulations possible.

Lows:

North: 22-25

Central: 23-26

South: 25-28

Coastal: 29-31



Friday:

Cloudy with a 60% chance of snow, some snow may be heavy at times. Snow may mix with sleet early along the coast. Accumulations likely.

Highs:

North: 30-34

Central: 29-34

South: 30-33

Coastal: 31-34



Actions:

Preparations for an extended period of freezing weather should be completed at this time.

Hazardous driving conditions may develop Thursday night and early Friday as winter precipitation develops over the area.



TXDOT started applying anti-ice agent to freeways and flyovers in Montgomery County yesterday and these actions will be increased and expanded to other areas on Wednesday. Very cold ground temperatures will make this agent only somewhat effective. Believe the first amounts of snow early Friday will melt with the remaining little ground warmth and then freeze as a layer of ice on most surfaces and then snow will accumulate on top of this layer of ice making for very dangerous travel conditions. Unlike past events surface roads (not just bridges and overpasses) will likely be impacted given the cold ground when the event starts.



Active TXDOT Road Condition Map:


http://www.txdot.gov/gis/hcrs_main/viewer.htm



Aviation:

Significant travel impacts as US central plains blizzard impacts major airports across the Midwest, plains, and into the NE. Suspect some airports will close completely as snow removal operations will not be able to keep up with heavy snow/blowing snow. End of the week will bring our own problems locally with winter precipitation. Suspect de-icing of aircraft control surfaces will be required at all local airports by Thursday night which will result in long delays.

[cycloneye]

One of the most important air hubs (DFW) in the U.S has been shut down.

DALLAS -- Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport has closed due to an ice storm that has shut schools, snarled ground traffic and left much of North Texas in a winter freeze.

DFW Airport spokesman David Magana says the runways are glazed with ice but that crews are working to clear the area. He says the facility expects to reopen within a couple of hours.

The airport, one of the largest in the country, is the American Airlines hub. Earlier Tuesday, hundreds of incoming flights were cancelled due to the massive snow storm across the Midwest.

Dallas Area Rapid Transit suspended rail service because of the storm.

http://www.foxnews.com/weather/2011/02/ ... ice-storm/

[CaptinCrunch]

Good Morning all, quick update from La Casa, work has closed, kids are home and everything is frozen....

About 1.5" of sleet under about 1" of snow.....VERY COLD at 18 degrees !!


Oh, and I cant tell if it's blowing snow, or if it's snowing again, wind are steady @ 15mph gusting to about 20-25

[CaptinCrunch]

It's funny watching Mike and Mike on espn this morning form DT FW. Looks like they are in GB or Pitts lol.

Don't worry Texas Snowman! This is more than we can handle. The cold is going to be the real news story around here. Winter precip was never really modeled to be big in NTX (though 5-6 inches from Decatur to Graham areas isn't exactly small lol). We get to try this all over again a week from today.

Bet they not out there tomorrow morning....LOL

[CaptinCrunch]

You know I realize Jerry Jones is very vain, but how did he manage to get Dallas to feel like home for the visiting football teams?

Green Bay

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 7.9898&e=0

Pittsburg

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... 9.9767&e=0

We are about the same here if not colder for some of the forecast!!!!

We TEXANS here in the DFW know how to make folks feel at home on the FROZEN TUNDRA!!

[Tireman4]

Wow, that front came through with a vengence. 43 and dropping.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im in friendswood now, saw 43F in the car on my way here from Sugar Land. Great article from Jeff with some nice details. If there is a meso scale snowband, that will bring some extremely heavy snow in a short period of time. Under the heavy snow band in 2004, some folks had 14" of snow in about 8 hours i believe. This event sounds like it will last a bit longer. Not trying to speculate but we will see. Im siding a little bit more with the Canadian with this one

[northtxboy]

Im in friendswood now, saw 43F in the car on my way here from Sugar Land. Great article from Jeff with some nice details. If there is a meso scale snowband, that will bring some extremely heavy snow in a short period of time. Under the heavy snow band in 2004, some folks had 14" of snow in about 8 hours i believe. This event sounds like it will last a bit longer. Not trying to speculate but we will see. Im siding a little bit more with the Canadian with this one

are u saying that we are going to get more snow today

[BrokenGlass]

Wow, I nice fresh flurry of snow here in Richardson. 18 degrees, light blowing snow.

[Portastorm]

I have to confess that I'm a little surprised - maybe even a bit disappointed - that the storm is winding down so quickly.

Why? The model tease at times (and from a few of us) about apocalyptic accumulations - double digit stuff - here in portions of North Texas.

Unless some of the stuff still in Oklahoma and the Panhandle wraps around across the Red River, it looks like we'll end up with about 3" or so where I live.

Very memorable storm and frontal passage, but just a garden variety accumulation that we've seen plenty of times before.

Doggone it, I wanted HISTORY!!!

Edit: Sorry Portastorm and the others down south. I guess when it comes to snow, I'm a bit greedy. Hence my S2K handle "Texas Snowman."

Let me get this straight ... you end up with 3 inches of sleet/snow and you're complaining?!

There's no justice.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Im in friendswood now, saw 43F in the car on my way here from Sugar Land. Great article from Jeff with some nice details. If there is a meso scale snowband, that will bring some extremely heavy snow in a short period of time. Under the heavy snow band in 2004, some folks had 14" of snow in about 8 hours i believe. This event sounds like it will last a bit longer. Not trying to speculate but we will see. Im siding a little bit more with the Canadian with this one

are u saying that we are going to get more snow today

For you dallas folk, in some of the runs it is showing some snow creeping up your way. I wouldnt expect a huge event though, maybe a dusting. Were trying to set records down here though

I just remembered too, in 2004, Dallas had a snow event just a few days before our snow event on xmas eve. *crosses fingers*

[ndale]

Can we get some clarification of what may happen here in Austin later this week. The info from Jeff that someone in the Houston area posted says snow will be limited to along the coast which, is what the models seem to show, but the nws here still shows a slight chance of snow.

[Parker_County1]

The rain finally turned to sleet just before 3 a.m., then snow soon after that.
When I looked out the window this morning around 6, I assumed it was mostly sleet, but was surprised to find it's about 1/2" of sleet with about 1-1/2" of snow on top.

About 3.5" in northern Parker County according to a friend of mine.

Cloudy and 15° here.

[txagwxman]

Txagwxman, I'm counting on you to come through for Austin and Tomball later this week. I'll take snow or sleet. No too picky. But I want some accumulations![/quote]
Just count on the GEM.

[txagwxman]

06:02 67.8 °F 66.6 °F 29.62in SW 4.0mph 9.0mph 96% 0.14in
06:07 66.6 °F 65.4 °F 29.66in SW 12.0mph 23.0mph 96% 0.15in
06:16 49.7 °F 44.1 °F 29.71in WNW 11.0mph 29.0mph 81% 0.16in
06:23 44.6 °F 41.3 °F 29.73in NW 11.0mph 25.0mph 88% 0.16in
06:24 44.0 °F 40.7 °F 29.73in NW 13.0mph 25.0mph 88% 0.17in

My WX station as the front hit. Anemometer on roof had 44 mph wind gust.