Texas Winter 2020-2021

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5281 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:22 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
The NAM blows up in far east Texas into northern Louisiana and Arkansas. Not that impressive west of there.


It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QqtKYHj.gif


Who does this favor for snow?


West Texas to the Austin area to Tyler then Texarkana line and everyone to north and west of there through Oklahoma. There is also two dynamics at play, the cross between isentropic lift provided by the incoming Arctic front (baroclinic) at the same time moisture is being thrown into the mix from developing gulf low.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5282 Postby ATXAG95 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:23 pm

Winter Storm Warnings now issued into Central Texas..including Austin :cold:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5283 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:24 pm

Ntxw wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
It's trending stronger and slower. It's a much longer duration event than what was depicted days prior. Also the coldest upper thermals is to the west and Oklahoma where the ratios are ridiculous. Sleet-fest to the east.

https://i.imgur.com/QqtKYHj.gif


Who does this favor for snow?


West Texas to the Austin area to Tyler then Texarkana line and everyone to north and west of there through Oklahoma. There is also two dynamics at play, the cross between isentropic lift provided by the incoming Arctic front (baroclinic) at the same time moisture is being thrown into the mix from developing gulf low.


So the Perfect Storm.....
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5284 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:24 pm

@BigJoeBastardi - Here is what I want to get across. IN terms of extremity from averages meteorologically, winter weather-wise what is heading for Texas,Ok/Ark is the winter equal of a cat 5 hurricane for hurricane season, It is that off the charts to me ( and to others btw)
————-

@BigJoeBastardi - I have never seen even a case of back to back major snow and ice events in Texas. Dallas DAYTIME temp Monday may be under their all time record low for a day in 1899 ( 13) They may be above that tho at midnight.
————-

@BigJoeBastardi - In Texas,if you are talking winter,then 1899 is the benchmark, though other great outbreaks occurred in the 80s but not with back to back heavy snow and ice events. In Texas with hurricanes. 1900 and Carla are arguably the benchmarks, Winter wise, this is in that ballpark
————-

@BigJoeBastardi - Here is a metric to judge whether this is hype on my part or not. Lets see if state of emergencies are declared and disaster declarations for the states to Texas.Ark/Ok and NW La.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5285 Postby dhweather » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:24 pm

The 12Z GFS has Rockwall at 7" with the first storm, and 9" more with the second. This has the potential to effectively shut the area down for next week. EMS teams statewide are probably already exhausted, and it's just getting started.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5286 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:24 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
Quixotic wrote:
Brandon8181 wrote:
Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?


Texas term for a really strong arctic blast. Usually without clouds, you could see the incredible deep blue skies approaching from the north before we had pollution. Usually we'd go from 70 to below freezing in a matter of hours. Locals are familiar with it.


I may be too young. I’m 37 and I’ve heard the term norther, but not blue norther.


It's a really old term from when Dallas was in its infancy. When I got here, the DNT wasn't even around. So, North of Downtown Dallas, it was nothing but plains. You could see it coming. I remember as a kid seeing one approach and you could see the clear blue advancing on a typically mild day with some moisture about but that arctic air was dry and cold and very blue. The winds would howl in when it passed. Different parts of the plains call it something. Texas picked the apt but still descriptive term "blue norther".
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5287 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:25 pm

:uarrow: In reference to Joe Bastardi’s last tweet above, I believe States of Emergency have already been issued in Oklahoma and Louisiana.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5288 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:26 pm

18z ICON

NOTE: 10:1 Snowfall, Ratios are 15:1 & 20:1 in Oklahoma

Image
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5289 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:28 pm

Let's get this started!

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5290 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:29 pm

bubba hotep wrote:Let's get this started!

https://i.ibb.co/n1S5fxr/Capture-2021-02-12-15-24-26-1.png


EWX has added warnings to their region as well.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5291 Postby SnowintheFalls » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:30 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Let's get this started!

https://i.ibb.co/n1S5fxr/Capture-2021-02-12-15-24-26-1.png


EWX has added warnings to their region as well.


I wonder what NWS Norman is waiting for? Seems like they should've already changed to a warning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5292 Postby Portastorm » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:31 pm

:uarrow:

Austin and Travis County are now under a TWO-DAY! Winter Storm Warning beginning 6 am tomorrow and continuing until 12 noon Monday. I don't recall seeing one of that long duration before. Freezing rain, sleet, and accumulating snow all expected over the 54-hour period. I've run out of adjectives to describe this. :eek:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5293 Postby ThunderSleetDreams » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:32 pm

Portastorm wrote::uarrow:

Austin and Travis County are now under a TWO-DAY! Winter Storm Warning beginning 6 am tomorrow and continuing until 12 noon Monday. I don't recall seeing one of that long duration before. Freezing rain, sleet, and accumulating snow all expected over the 54-hour period. I've run out of adjectives to describe this. :eek:


GLORY GLORY ..... HALLELUJAH!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5294 Postby gboudx » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:33 pm

:slime:
dhweather wrote:The 12Z GFS has Rockwall at 7" with the first storm, and 9" more with the second. This has the potential to effectively shut the area down for next week. EMS teams statewide are probably already exhausted, and it's just getting started.

:slime:
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5295 Postby bubba hotep » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:33 pm

Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Let's get this started!

https://i.ibb.co/n1S5fxr/Capture-2021-02-12-15-24-26-1.png


EWX has added warnings to their region as well.


It's going to light up for sure.

Image
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5296 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:34 pm

SnowintheFalls wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
bubba hotep wrote:Let's get this started!

https://i.ibb.co/n1S5fxr/Capture-2021-02-12-15-24-26-1.png


EWX has added warnings to their region as well.


I wonder what NWS Norman is waiting for? Seems like they should've already changed to a warning.

Blizzard Warning or combine the Winter Storm Warning with a Wind Chill Warning?
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Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

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Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5297 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:35 pm

Folks you are never going to see warnings this early, this long, with so much confidence for such a huge part of Texas. Wording is historic in them, rightfully so.

Sun-Tuesday.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5298 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:43 pm

Brandon8181 wrote:
jasons2k wrote:An old rule I used in the 80's and 90's growing-up: if it got to -40F in Montana, then we were in for a true historical blue norther. It hit -40F this morning.


Could you elaborate a bit? Blue norther?


Yup, it’s a term that Harold Taft and other Mets in Texas and Oklahoma used a lot back in the 1970s, 1980s, and 1990s.

Don’t hear the term as often now, maybe because they seem less frequent in recent years. You’ll know it when you see it and experience it, I’ll tell you that for sure. I remember one when I was growing up where it was near 80 in Denison, the norther roared in, and we had an inch or two of snow by morning.

And I was duck hunting on a nice December morning a couple of years ago near Wichita Falls when one came rolling in. You could see the dark cloud bank approach from the north, the sky went from sunny to low clouds in minutes, the light and variable wind shifted hard to the north, and the temperature fell from the upper 40s to the low 30s in a half hour.

FYI, here’s a definition from Wikipedia:

“A Blue Norther, also known as a Texas Norther, is a fast moving cold front marked by a rapid drop in temperature, strong winds, and dark blue or "black" skies. The cold front originates from the north, hence the "norther", and can send temperatures plummeting by 20 or 30 degrees in merely minutes.

The Midwestern United States lacks natural geographic barriers to protect itself from the frigid winter air masses that originate in Canada and the arctic. Multiple times per year conditions will become favorable to push severe cold fronts as far south as Texas, bringing sleet and snow and causing the windchill to plunge into the teens. Depending on the time of year, high temperatures that immediately precede a Texas Norther can reach 85 °F or even 90 °F under bright sunlight in nearly-calm conditions before the cold front approaches. However, most Blue Northers don't advance as far south as Mexico, and even the most severe examples typically reach their apex midway through Texas. For example, cities in North Texas, like Dallas, experience drastically more Blue Northers than cities along the Gulf of Mexico, like Houston. As a city is struck by a Blue Norther, its temperatures can be 30 to 50 degrees colder than neighboring cities that are only a few miles away that have not yet been struck. Blue Northers can be dangerous due to their volatile temperature swings which catch some people unprepared.

Blue Northers occur multiple times per year. They are usually recorded between the months of November and March, although they have been recorded less frequently in October and April as well. The Blue Norther phenomenon is especially common in November, when the last vestiges of autumn are still clinging to life. One of the most famous Blue Northers was the Great Blue Norther of November 11, 1911, which spawned multiple tornadoes and dropped temperatures 40 degrees in only 15 minutes and 67 degrees in 10 hours, a world record.”
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5299 Postby 3090 » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:45 pm

What does the colored areas off the coast of Texas and Louisiana indicate as far as watches/warnings go? I’ve never seen that before with winter storm watches. Thanks!
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Re: Texas Winter 2020-2021

#5300 Postby jasons2k » Fri Feb 12, 2021 4:46 pm

3090 wrote:What does the colored areas off the coast of Texas and Louisiana indicate as far as watches/warnings go? I’ve never seen that before with winter storm watches. Thanks!

We have a small craft advisory offshore. Wind...
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