Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

i agree with part of that with respect to the track portions of northwest tx up towards my way near wichita falls
might get in on this sun/mon system but i just think further south near the metroplex wont be much to impact travel but i mean things could change still needs to be watched as we head into the weekend...

[wxman57]

i know one thing this first system needs to be watched closely for oklahoma as far south as say even possibly central, southwest, southcentral portions if that cold air happens to rush down more quickly then expected could be looking at another big mess over the sooner state. however i do think the chances of it impacting dfw with winter precip or any large portion of northern tx is almost slim to none...

It does appear that the precip will shut down right behind the cold front with the first system, so Dallas-Ft. Worth would not likely get anything frozen. There is nothing to indicate any post-frontal disturbances to produce precip in the cold air.

Just keep in mind that precipitation on those GFS maps with the precip depicted in green is precip that occurs in the 6 hours BEFORE the valid time on the map. So you can't say that any green shaded area north of the surface freezing line is winter precip. It could have fallen 4-6 hours earlier when the surface temps were in the 50s, but then the surface freezing line moves south after the precip ends. Get it?

[gboudx]

off-topic,

wxman57, you have an ugly avatar.

back on-topic

[Ntxw]

off-topic,

wxman57, you have an ugly avatar.

back on-topic

I like his avatar! Imprint of one of the most known natural disasters in American history!

Back on topic.

12z GFS has a system coming in separate from the southern stream energy coming up from Mexico which from earlier runs (trend) that I saw the two merged? For next week.

[Portastorm]

off-topic,

wxman57, you have an ugly avatar.

back on-topic

I like his avatar! Imprint of one of the most known natural disasters in American history!

Back on topic.

12z GFS has a system coming in separate from the southern stream energy coming up from Mexico which from earlier runs (trend) that I saw the two merged? For next week.

Yep, just like yesterday, 12z GFS coming in warmer for next week's Wed-Fri storm. Nothing but cold rain for me but does lay down a light snow over the Metroplex.

[Ntxw]

Don't fret! It'll change 5 more times before next week lol.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Don't fret! It'll change 5 more times before next week lol.

I'm not fretting. Read my post from earlier today. I consider all of these runs as "amusement" beyond Tuesday. Experience this winter along with the wise words of Wxman57 has brought me to that happy place in my mind!

[Tireman4]

:uarrow: Don't fret! It'll change 5 more times before next week lol.

[b]I'm not fretting. Read my post from earlier today. I consider all of these runs as "amusement" beyond Tuesday. Experience this winter along with the wise words of [b]Wxman57 has brought me to that happy place in my mind!

[/b][/b]

Ahh the happy place. I love that one too!!!

[Portastorm]

FWIW, the 12z Euro continues its warmer/dry scenario for next week while the 12z Canadian continues its cold but dry scenario.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF_12z/ecmwfloop.html

[HockeyTx82]

Not much going during lunch today it seems. Just checking in to see if I need to stock up on supplies or get out the shorts and t-shirts.

Also, I saw this forecast for the weekend coming up. I am a Cowboys fan but still find it to be funny.

[msstateguy83]

this is my latest map for late sunday into monday... current thinking is strong arctic front MAY arrive much earlyer then models
are currently showing therefore have raised snowfall accumulations for the entire region for sunday into monday evening.. most likely
area for heavy snow will be along and nw of interstate 44 from wichita falls to okc to tulsa... HOWEVER this could be changed in
time depending on the track of the system. I said earlyer that i thought the likelyhood of dfw getting anything major was slim to
none i still think that BUT if this comes in quicker it will give the nw area of the metroplex a slight chance of some winter precip.
the amounts on this map MAY have to be raised even higher in later forecast... stay tuned...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[wxman57]

Back from my meetings. I made a few meteograms (Austin, Wichita Falls, DFW) and a comparison 500mb graphic between the ECMWF and GFS at 144 hrs. The key factor in all forecasts is this southern stream feature that the GFS kicks out across the SW U.S. and eventually across Texas next Thursday vs. the ECMWF which shows no such feature at all. It's this southern stream system that would provide precip in the cold air - IF it materializes. Considering the GFS can't even agree on its strength or timing from one run to the next, I have very little confidence in this feature. Could be completely bogus.

So I wouldn't forecast winter precip across DFW or Wichita Falls just yet based on what I'm seeing.

As you can see from the meteograms, the 12Z GFS forecasts a potential for winter precip in Wichita Falls and DFW but just cool rain in Austin (little of that, too):

[Ntxw]

Times like this you take out the good 'ole satellite imagery and see what's out there!

And from what I can see, there is a lot of convection in the equatorial regions south of Hawaii. Is that the system\energy supposed to effect Mexico next week?

[wxman57]

Times like this you take out the good 'ole satellite imagery and see what's out there!

And from what I can see, there is a lot of convection in the equatorial regions south of Hawaii. Is that the system\energy supposed to effect Mexico next week?

Next week's features are between Alaska and Japan and there really isn't much to see on satellite. May be time to throw out the GFS and focus on the ECMWF for late next week. Euro says cold but no southern stream disturbance to produce precip late next week.

Oh, and I changed my avatar (for now) to represent what I'd like to be doing this weekend, first sunny weekend (no cold rain) since I can remember.

[mrgolf]

Wxman57,just wanted to know when we could see a potential winter event in the south?I keep hearing the pattern is conducive of one with active STJ and cold air masses coming down.I know ED Berry works with you at the private weather group in houston.He is a good friend of mine.He is from dodgecity KS. I also like Cosgrove.I read his blogs every day.Just rooting for one more chance at a winter event.This is kevin from around memphis,tn. I enjoy the weather board.

[wxman57]

Finally, the 18Z GFS run is beginning to drop the idea of a significant southern stream feature next Thu/Fri in favor of a much weaker/flatter shortwave more in line with the what the European has been forecasting for 2-3 days. It's encouraging that the models are beginning to agree, but not encouraging if you were hoping for a Texas winter storm late next week. Let's see if the trend continues with future GFS runs, or if the Euro begins to show a stronger southern stream feature.



<-- What I'll be doing this weekend for the first time in a month. No miserable sloppy cold rain this weekend! Unfortunately, I'll be the only one at my superbowl parth as everyone I could think of was going out of town. Been waiting 43 years for the Saints to make it to the superbowl. I think they can win.

[Ntxw]

Well that's that, looks like this thread is going to hibernation unless it changes or something good comes up.

[BrokenGlass]

Okay, but hasn't there been a trend of the GFS dropping these kinds of features in the 4-6 day range, only to bring them back as they near?

[msstateguy83]

00z nam coming out gonna look over it closely... this may stir the pot alittle or some to disagree w/me
however the system coming late sunday into monday evening could seriously effect parts of northern, nw
tx... I fully EXPECT a MAJOR SNOW STORM over a large portion of oklahoma possibly nw tx near childress, vernon
& wichita falls this looks to be taking a more southern track, looking stronger run to run... i will post more details later...


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[vbhoutex]

Finally, the 18Z GFS run is beginning to drop the idea of a significant southern stream feature next Thu/Fri in favor of a much weaker/flatter shortwave more in line with the what the European has been forecasting for 2-3 days. It's encouraging that the models are beginning to agree, but not encouraging if you were hoping for a Texas winter storm late next week. Let's see if the trend continues with future GFS runs, or if the Euro begins to show a stronger southern stream feature.



<-- What I'll be doing this weekend for the first time in a month. No miserable sloppy cold rain this weekend! Unfortunately, I'll be the only one at my superbowl parth as everyone I could think of was going out of town. Been waiting 43 years for the Saints to make it to the superbowl. I think they can win.

Happy Weatherman's day!!!
Do you think the Euro is on the "right path" with next weeks weather?