Texas Winter 2018-2019

[rwfromkansas]

I apparently slept through storms last night, but my wife woke up to thunder. Was nice. Hopefully we can get something tomorrow. Lots of sleet and ice up north in KS.

[Ntxw]

DFW has dipped again down to 34F around the noon hour. I don't think anyone was expecting this chilly this early.

[wxman57]

:uarrow:

Key word here being "projected."

We shall see. I still remain skeptical of seeing much wintry action here in Austin tomorrow but I also say this setup has potential for surprises.

12Z GFS has temps a little cooler over Austin tomorrow (30F) at around 1800 ft up. Better chance of a few sleet pellets there. I know, that's so exciting...

[Portastorm]

:uarrow:

Key word here being "projected."

We shall see. I still remain skeptical of seeing much wintry action here in Austin tomorrow but I also say this setup has potential for surprises.

12Z GFS has temps a little cooler over Austin tomorrow (30F) at around 1800 ft up. Better chance of a few sleet pellets there. I know, that's so exciting...

Normally it wouldn't be ... but this "winter" this may be the highlight of the season.

[wxman57]

Cold front went though south Houston about 20 minutes ago. Feels like temps in the 20s outside, though I suspect that's only the upper 50s. Bring back my warm weather!

[wxman57]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

[HockeyTx82]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

Not sure if serious......

[wxman57]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

Not sure if serious......

I am serious, and don't call me Shirley...

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

With all due respect, why are you continually referencing the GFS when we've proven it to be completely bonkers with this airmass ? This is what it thinks the surface temps look like right now....DFW is sitting at 35 F and OKC at 22 F so it's not just a local issue. How can you possibly give any credence to that model ?

[wxman57]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

With all due respect, why are you continually referencing the GFS when we've proven it to be completely bonkers with this airmass ? This is what it thinks the surface temps look like right now....DFW is sitting at 35 F and OKC at 22 F so it's not just a local issue. How can you possibly give any credence to that model ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_T2m_scus_2.png

NAM and Canadian have the D-FW area well above freezing tomorrow afternoon as well. Time period in question is noon to 6pm tomorrow. Temps are currently colder than the GFS was forecasting because the cold air moved in more quickly. That doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow afternoon temps will be colder than are being predicted.

[cheezyWXguy]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

With all due respect, why are you continually referencing the GFS when we've proven it to be completely bonkers with this airmass ? This is what it thinks the surface temps look like right now....DFW is sitting at 35 F and OKC at 22 F so it's not just a local issue. How can you possibly give any credence to that model ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_T2m_scus_2.png

NAM and Canadian have the D-FW area well above freezing tomorrow afternoon as well. Time period in question is noon to 6pm tomorrow. Temps are currently colder than the GFS was forecasting because the cold air moved in more quickly. That doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow afternoon temps will be colder than are being predicted.

The nam for hour 42 shows surface temps of 34-35 at DFW, at least according to the soundings I saw on tropical tidbits, including the one I posted a couple pages back. Above freezing sure, but at that temp and with a column fully below freezing, snow would definitely be the precip type, and a quick burst could put a nice dusting on grassy areas. I agree, no traffic problems though.

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

With all due respect, why are you continually referencing the GFS when we've proven it to be completely bonkers with this airmass ? This is what it thinks the surface temps look like right now....DFW is sitting at 35 F and OKC at 22 F so it's not just a local issue. How can you possibly give any credence to that model ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_T2m_scus_2.png

NAM and Canadian have the D-FW area well above freezing tomorrow afternoon as well. Time period in question is noon to 6pm tomorrow. Temps are currently colder than the GFS was forecasting because the cold air moved in more quickly. That doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow afternoon temps will be colder than are being predicted.

I do not know that that is totally correct. The front is not much ahead of schedule. The cold air behind it is more aggressive than the models have shown though. It remains to be seen if this is just a faster push of the coldest air if the air mass truly is colder. I lean a bit towards the former. Tomorrow's temps are highly dependent on cloud cover, morning sun equals highs near 40 if the clouds move in mid morning and stay thick ten mid 30s at best. Plenty cold enough for snow with mid 30s. The heavier the precip is the moreteps will fall with large DP depressions and cold air aloft.

[orangeblood]

12Z NAM has sleet/snow across the D-FW area tomorrow evening. Below is the image with the most widespread precip. 12Z GFS has a snow profile sounding for tomorrow afternoon in the D-FW area. Above freezing at the surface, though. More of a curiosity than an impact on travel.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/namconus/2019020712/namconus_ref_frzn_scus_38.png

With all due respect, why are you continually referencing the GFS when we've proven it to be completely bonkers with this airmass ? This is what it thinks the surface temps look like right now....DFW is sitting at 35 F and OKC at 22 F so it's not just a local issue. How can you possibly give any credence to that model ?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019020712/gfs_T2m_scus_2.png

NAM and Canadian have the D-FW area well above freezing tomorrow afternoon as well. Time period in question is noon to 6pm tomorrow. Temps are currently colder than the GFS was forecasting because the cold air moved in more quickly. That doesn't necessarily mean that tomorrow afternoon temps will be colder than are being predicted.

I'm sorry but how can you make a definitive statement like this...that it's colder because it moved in faster ? Could it not be because it is stronger than being modeled ? or could it be both ? Without knowing the answer to these questions - it's really hard to surmise one way or another, correct ? I think most come on here to learn/discuss/and sometimes have a friendly debate and IMO, this particular statement seems somewhat misleading without more context and/or reasoning why you believe X....

[Tireman4]

Cold front went though south Houston about 20 minutes ago. Feels like temps in the 20s outside, though I suspect that's only the upper 50s. Bring back my warm weather!

Neva. We resist. Together, we resist Lord Darth Vader of Summer!!

[1900hurricane]

Today, I realized I left my jacket in Houston...

[harp]

I'm west of New Orleans and it was 83 on my car thermometer a while ago. Yes, today is Feb. 7th.....

[wxman57]

I do not know that that is totally correct. The front is not much ahead of schedule. The cold air behind it is more aggressive than the models have shown though. It remains to be seen if this is just a faster push of the coldest air if the air mass truly is colder. I lean a bit towards the former. Tomorrow's temps are highly dependent on cloud cover, morning sun equals highs near 40 if the clouds move in mid morning and stay thick ten mid 30s at best. Plenty cold enough for snow with mid 30s. The heavier the precip is the moreteps will fall with large DP depressions and cold air aloft.

Looking back at yesterday's 12z GFS run, it had the front reaching the D-FW area around 10am today. Looks like it was through by 7am, about 3 hours earlier. It is moving a bit faster 2-4 hrs and it's also possible that the GFS is too warm with the post-frontal air. Would not be the first time that the GFS is too warm.

[fendie]

12Z Euro Vertical Temp Profile for KDFW for anyone interested. Late this evening thru tomorrow afternoon look to be the coldest in the few thousand feet above the surface.

[fendie]

Looking back at yesterday's 12z GFS run, it had the front reaching the D-FW area around 10am today. Looks like it was through by 7am, about 3 hours earlier. It is moving a bit faster 2-4 hrs and it's also possible that the GFS is too warm with the post-frontal air. Would not be the first time that the GFS is too warm.

The GFS has been trending colder with minimum temperatures at KDFW from this morning thru Saturday morning. The trend, my friend, has been going for 5 consecutive runs now.

[Brent]

I dunno what the news uses for those temperature forecasts but yesterday it kept us in the 40s all day, just a tad off