Texas Winter 2020-2021

[iorange55]

Can't believe I'll miss this! All those days/nights years back when we saw models predicting similar things 14+ days out, and now here it is, just two days away. A historic event.

I'm not sure if you all are lucky, or doomed. Be careful!

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

[Iceresistance]

NWS-Norman

...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST
SATURDAY...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT TO
6 PM CST MONDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Storm Warning, heavy snow and dangerous
wind chills expected. Total snow accumulations of 6 to 10
inches. Wind chills of 20 to 30 degrees below zero are expected
Monday and Tuesday mornings.

For the Wind Chill Advisory, wind chills as low as 15 below
zero Saturday morning.

* WHERE...Portions of central, northern, northwest, southwest
and western Oklahoma.

* WHEN...For the Winter Storm Warning, from midnight Saturday
night to 6 PM CST Monday. For the Wind Chill Advisory, until
noon CST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Areas of
blowing snow could significantly reduce visibility. The cold
wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little
as 15 minutes.

[txtwister78]

Seeing a trend with GFS...trending deeper and more south with accumulations. I-20 to I-10

[Cpv17]

Seeing a trend with GFS...trending deeper and more south with accumulations. I-20 to I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-ICr1pZlp8NA.png

Starting to look a little better for those of us in the southern half of the state.

[UTSARoadrunner4]

Seeing a trend with GFS...trending deeper and more south with accumulations. I-20 to I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-ICr1pZlp8NA.png

There you go GFS, keep on coming further south!!
(If only the state can get snow without the ill effects)

[txtwister78]

Seeing a trend with GFS...trending deeper and more south with accumulations. I-20 to I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-ICr1pZlp8NA.png

There you go GFS, keep on coming further south!!
(If only the state can get snow without the ill effects)

Euro may win the war in terms of snow/accumulations if this trend continues. Definitely has lost some battles along the way. Still a few runs to go though. Trend has definitely been south last few runs with GFS

[HockeyTx82]

Seeing a trend with GFS...trending deeper and more south with accumulations. I-20 to I-10

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1613152800/1613412000-ICr1pZlp8NA.png

There you go GFS, keep on coming further south!!
(If only the state can get snow without the ill effects)

Euro may win the war in terms of snow/accumulations if this trend continues. Definitely has lost some battles along the way. Still a few runs to go though. Trend has definitely been south last few runs with GFS

Like the whole thing moves south or just an expansion south?

Is DFW getting the once over again?

[JDawg512]

This topic has already been discussed but we are debating whether to get a generator. Here's the issue, The Rain Cave is just a few blocks from South Austin Hospital and we are connected to the same grid as they are so we rarely get power outages, no issues yesterday. We did have power go out 3 times when we had snow but none were longer than a minute or two before it came back on. Well its fine if none of the lines break but there inlies the debate on should we spend nearly 900 bucks or hope our grid stays on...

[txtwister78]

There you go GFS, keep on coming further south!!
(If only the state can get snow without the ill effects)

Euro may win the war in terms of snow/accumulations if this trend continues. Definitely has lost some battles along the way. Still a few runs to go though. Trend has definitely been south last few runs with GFS

Like the whole thing moves south or just an expansion south?

Is DFW getting the once over again?

No...Dallas still looks good to get snow. What I'm saying is the trend overall by the GFS has been adjusting the accumulations toward the Euro in terms of snow. Still some runs to go before we begin to lock in anything. These disturbances have really been digging to the south into Mexico before ejecting into TX. Saw that yesterday. Saturday looks to be similar. Just something to watch as we move forward.

[wxman57]

You folks way up there in the U.S. wanted winter weather. This event may be close to the big freezes of 1983 and 1989 - maybe not quite the duration of sub-freezing temps. Absolute low temp may be colder than the 7F recorded back then in Houston. Our water will be shut off near sunrise Monday and will likely be off all week. Faucets open. Running water will freeze, so letting them drip won't help much. Don't even think about driving anywhere next week. I see a multi-billion dollar catastrophe in the making.

Here is a model plot starting 6AM CST Sunday:

[Shoshana]

This topic has already been discussed but we are debating whether to get a generator. Here's the issue, The Rain Cave is just a few blocks from South Austin Hospital and we are connected to the same grid as they are so we rarely get power outages, no issues yesterday. We did have power go out 3 times when we had snow but none were longer than a minute or two before it came back on. Well its fine if none of the lines break but there inlies the debate on should we spend nearly 900 bucks or hope our grid stays on...

We discussed it here too. We didn’t have any power issues during the snow and have underground utilities. We decided not to get one. We are trying to get a small ceramic heater to put in the kitchen to help keep it warmer

[austin06]

I’m west of Austin in Dipping Springs and can’t believe we are looking at a forecast of 18/0 on Monday. The trees and foliage are already iced up from yesterday.

In 2011 or 2013 we had 4 days below freezing in the but lowest in the teens. Pipes were bursting all over the place. People are certainly preparing for this, but it will be a huge concern if we lose power in the area. That’s cold, cold, cold. With ice and snow. Starting tonight we will not get above freezing for 4 days and the temps are something we have not experienced out here.

We have a heater in our pump house and will have to put a heater in the garage near our water heater even though it’s wrapped in insulation. The grocery is out of many items and the feed stores out of hay, propane and other supplies. A few roads already closed due to ice. I’ll take some snow any day, but these temps are not going to be fun at all.

[Brandon8181]

This topic has already been discussed but we are debating whether to get a generator. Here's the issue, The Rain Cave is just a few blocks from South Austin Hospital and we are connected to the same grid as they are so we rarely get power outages, no issues yesterday. We did have power go out 3 times when we had snow but none were longer than a minute or two before it came back on. Well its fine if none of the lines break but there inlies the debate on should we spend nearly 900 bucks or hope our grid stays on...

I elected not to get a generator for a few reasons. One of those being is I feel the power outage here near Tyler will be lengthy and I can only keep so much gas here and when I run out of gas the gas station will be without power too.

[HockeyTx82]

This topic has already been discussed but we are debating whether to get a generator. Here's the issue, The Rain Cave is just a few blocks from South Austin Hospital and we are connected to the same grid as they are so we rarely get power outages, no issues yesterday. We did have power go out 3 times when we had snow but none were longer than a minute or two before it came back on. Well its fine if none of the lines break but there inlies the debate on should we spend nearly 900 bucks or hope our grid stays on...

I elected not to get a generator for a few reasons. One of those being is I feel the power outage here near Tyler will be lengthy and I can only keep so much gas here and when I run out of gas the gas station will be without power too.

That's a good point on the gas station not having power. Bought me a small propane heater and got some small coleman cans for it just incase. I can also cook on my camping stove if need be

[bubba hotep]

A beautiful sequence up coming. The past several winters we had the TPV hung up around the GL anytime we had cold and a decent looking setup. This resulted in an Eastern trough with confluence off the SE and our incoming system would get sheared out. The TPV has dumped cold down the Rockies into Texas, even though we didn't see a big -EP0 (which is good since it is harder to get systems to amplify out across the Southern Plains with a big -EPO). However, we did get a -WPO and -PNA which helped keep the cold from bleeding off east. Now with active flow off the Pacific the TPV lifts out as our 1st system comes in and the SE ridge helps the system cut somewhat, which prevents it from pushing the cold front through the Gulf. That leaves moisture in place for a second system. It really is an amazing setup.

[Shoshana]

Disaster declaration declared for all counties in Texas

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS


24-Hour Kuchera Ratio Snowfall (Pivotal Weather)

[EnnisTx]

This topic has already been discussed but we are debating whether to get a generator. Here's the issue, The Rain Cave is just a few blocks from South Austin Hospital and we are connected to the same grid as they are so we rarely get power outages, no issues yesterday. We did have power go out 3 times when we had snow but none were longer than a minute or two before it came back on. Well its fine if none of the lines break but there inlies the debate on should we spend nearly 900 bucks or hope our grid stays on...

I elected not to get a generator for a few reasons. One of those being is I feel the power outage here near Tyler will be lengthy and I can only keep so much gas here and when I run out of gas the gas station will be without power too.

Won't do you much good anyway unless you have a big generator and a transfer switch installed to run it through your breaker box allowing your heating system the power needed to run your furnace. you might be able to run a few floor heaters with it and keep a little light on at night, but that's about it otherwise. Just be ready to shut off the water if you loose power.

[SoupBone]

————-

@BigJoeBastardi - Here is a metric to judge whether this is hype on my part or not. Lets see if state of emergencies are declared and disaster declarations for the states to Texas.Ark/Ok and NW La.

This is not a good metric as to the severity of an event. Declarations are done to make available all state and federal resources, it doesn't mean they'll be needed.