Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[msstateguy83]

[Ntxw]

Looks like the Texas panhandle is going to get clobbered again based on 0z NAM.

[msstateguy83]

i might not be the most experienced in this room, however this HAS to be watched closely over the weekend!
could see some areas nw of dallas-fortworth picking up quite abit of winter precip late monday... we will see how this pans out over the next 48 hours or so....


The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Ntxw]

0z nam also deepens it very nicely. Could be a powerful system for our standards. Also looks to have strong winds with it so where it does snow, wind driven.

[wxman57]

Still waiting for the 00Z NAM run to complete and get the raw data. Should be shortly. Just for fun, I plotted a couple 18Z NAM meteograms. Definitely shows snow for Amarillo, no question about that. I then looked farther southeast to Wichita Falls (below). Forecasts temps in the mid 40s during the precip there. Precip ends before temps drop below freezing. That's to be expected with this type of setup. I'll plot the 00Z when it's done.

[srainhoutx]

Inland runner?

[wxman57]

Doesn't look like the 00Z NAM raw data will make it to the web site tonight, so I guess I'll call it a night. Doesn't look like anything significant in terms of winter precip for Texas early next week except for the Panhandle. Rain could change to snow briefly at Wichita Falls as the precip ends. No big deal, though. South of there, enjoy the rain.

[iorange55]

Oh yeah enjoy the rain.....always do.

[Ntxw]

Well im sure there's a logical explanation for this too, but the 0z has the center of the low in central\south Texas. What was a Kansas storm is now an Oklahoma mess. Snow lovers up there are probably having a heck of a winter. Road trip anyone?

[wxman57]

Ok, the 00Z NAM is in. Here's the current meteogram for Wichita Falls. Just cold rain and maybe a couple flakes as precip ends. And notice the 00Z is a lot drier than the 18Z:

[weatherguy425]

wxman57, are the odds any better for next weekENDS system?

[wxman22]

FWIW 0z GFS is back to a little bit more colder solution though not as cold as it was yesterday but colder and more moisture non the less.

[Ntxw]

There was always a system, just wxman thinks we should throw out the GFS and stick to the Euro which is a much weaker solution.

[Turtle]

Wow the recent GFS model looks great! I haven't even seen a dusting here in I-20 East Texas, hopefully this will change that.

[Ntxw]

Gfs ensembles tonight seem to like the idea of post frontal precip on mon-tues along the red river valley.

Edit: Nam also follows the GFS in bringing the low to central\south Texas.

[txagwxman]

Man, this pattern is insane...DC is going to break all-time snow fall records ever recorded as will BWI/PHL. And there is more coming in this pattern...I am not ruling out snow for Houston sometime in the next 2 weeks. The system this Thursday will be a rain maker for SE TX, but what about afterwards? But if the ECMWF right we won't see crap...How's that for the bear?

[Portastorm]

ANTI-JINX ALERT


Eh ... personally I'm getting tired of all of this "potential." To me this pattern is the Ryan Leaf of weather.

Here in central Texas, it's been all kinds of hype and potential but in terms of real production = zippo!

Nothing on the horizon for the next five days or so other than more cold rain.

[srainhoutx]

ANTI-JINX ALERT


Eh ... personally I'm getting tired of all of this "potential." To me this pattern is the Ryan Leaf of weather.

Here in central Texas, it's been all kinds of hype and potential but in terms of real production = zippo!

Nothing on the horizon for the next five days or so other than more cold rain.

Cautiously talks Portastorm back from the ledge...

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
904 AM EST SAT FEB 06 2010

VALID 12Z WED FEB 10 2010 - 12Z SAT FEB 13 2010


PRELIMINARY UPDATE...

USED A BLEND OF THE 00Z/06 GEM GLOBAL AND 00Z/06 EC ENSEMBLE MEAN
TO UPDATE THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH
7. THIS COMBINATION OF GUIDANCE WEIGHTS THE DEVELOPING EAST COAST
LOW MID PERIOD SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD...CLOSER TO THE CLIMATOLOGY OF
THIS WINTER. OVERALL...THE PATTERN IS LOCKED IN...WITH AN ONGOING
JET COMING INTO THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES...AND
SPLIT...CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EAST. A NEW WAVE LOOKS LIKE IT
WILL BE ORGANIZING OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND GULF OF MEXICO DAY
7...THE DETAILS OF WHICH WILL NEED TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE COMING
DAYS.


CISCO

[Ntxw]

ANTI-JINX ALERT


Eh ... personally I'm getting tired of all of this "potential." To me this pattern is the Ryan Leaf of weather.

Here in central Texas, it's been all kinds of hype and potential but in terms of real production = zippo!

Nothing on the horizon for the next five days or so other than more cold rain.

Well that's what this thread is for, to discuss the 'potential' or the 'happening'. It's Texas, if we weren't to discuss the potentials (outside the amarillo area) there would be pretty much little use for this place . I learn a lot from the nots just as I do from the do's .

[BrokenGlass]

The crickets have returned. The thing that surprises me is that dewpoints in the metroplex are still in the upper 20's today. This isn't like last week's storm, which was moderated by temps in the mid-70s that were in place.