Texas Winter 2010-2011

[gboudx]

An Air Force Met sighting! Good to see you post dude.

[Air Force Met]

An Air Force Met sighting! Good to see you post dude.

Good to be posting. I've been so busy I don't have much free time to get online.

It's a gonna snow in Houston

How much is the question.

[txagwxman]

Another note: that 500 mb chart for the Thursday system looks really good for a storm across Texas once again but where are we going to find the moisture ?

Two places...1st place is that huge body of water known as the Pacific. 700mb flow will be sucking in Pacific moisture...moistening up the column. 2nd place is the Gulf. The low will throw plenty of moisture in.

This is very similar to Christmas 2004...but perhaps with a little more moisture available...and colder temps (so a higher ratio).

Looks even closer to the Feb 1960 storm that dumped 4.4" in Houston.

[Tireman4]

Another note: that 500 mb chart for the Thursday system looks really good for a storm across Texas once again but where are we going to find the moisture ?

Two places...1st place is that huge body of water known as the Pacific. 700mb flow will be sucking in Pacific moisture...moistening up the column. 2nd place is the Gulf. The low will throw plenty of moisture in.

This is very similar to Christmas 2004...but perhaps with a little more moisture available...and colder temps (so a higher ratio).

HE IS BACK....AFM....where the heck have you been?

[iorange55]

Well everything is white here! Sure we didn't get 3-5 inches, but it's pretty and COLD! Still getting some snow flurries here.

[Tireman4]

An Air Force Met sighting! Good to see you post dude.

Good to be posting. I've been so busy I don't have much free time to get online.

It's a gonna snow in Houston

How much is the question.

Ok, from your gut...if your gut could speak, how much do you think Houston proper might get?

[jasons2k]

The freeze line is already in Montgomery County, almost to my house! Geez! My wife is driving back from Austin today - I told her to be careful!

[jasons2k]

An Air Force Met sighting! Good to see you post dude.

Good to be posting. I've been so busy I don't have much free time to get online.

It's a gonna snow in Houston

How much is the question.

Ok, from your gut...if your gut could speak, how much do you think Houston proper might get?

Geez, let the man get his bearings first! It doesn't take long for the questions to start rolling, do they?!?! (I'm just joking around)

[txagwxman]

The freeze line is already in Montgomery County, almost to my house! Geez! My wife is driving back from Austin today - I told her to be careful!

Won't freeze on the roads...still too warm. Overpasses maybe tonight...but should dry out by then.

[ROCK]

The freeze line is already in Montgomery County, almost to my house! Geez! My wife is driving back from Austin today - I told her to be careful!

models underestimating how cold this air mass was or thought it would modify more so. We will be freezing all over Houston by late afternoon, IMO......


It is nice to AFM around...

[Tireman4]

[
Ok, from your gut...if your gut could speak, how much do you think Houston proper might get?[/quote]

Geez, let the man get his bearings first! It doesn't take long for the questions to start rolling, do they?!?! (I'm just joking around) [/quote]

Well he is a pro Jason....gotta field the tough ones...LOL. You should see the ones I have to answer in my history classes. They stick those letters...MA..PhD behind your name, they think I am an expert..( well the pro mets here are) and I am so not at times...LOL

[South Texas Storms]

An Air Force Met sighting! Good to see you post dude.

Good to be posting. I've been so busy I don't have much free time to get online.

It's a gonna snow in Houston

How much is the question.

Do you think college station and san antonio will at least see a dusting of the white stuff?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The freeze line is already in Montgomery County, almost to my house! Geez! My wife is driving back from Austin today - I told her to be careful!

models underestimating how cold this air mass was or thought it would modify more so. We will be freezing all over Houston by late afternoon, IMO......


It is nice to AFM around...

36 degrees in sugar land. I think we will be there at about 2 pm

[Cuda17]

The freeze line is already in Montgomery County, almost to my house! Geez! My wife is driving back from Austin today - I told her to be careful!

models underestimating how cold this air mass was or thought it would modify more so. We will be freezing all over Houston by late afternoon, IMO......


It is nice to AFM around...

36 degrees in sugar land. I think we will be there at about 2 pm

Sitting at 31 here in Bellville....

[downsouthman1]

I believe that the approaching/developing storm will follow suit with what other storm systems that have moved over TX this Winter have done, & that's move a little further north then forecast. That being said, I think a large chunk of South, Central, Southeast, & East TX could see accumulating wintery precip later in the week.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

[Tireman4]

You can see the cold air filtering into the Houston area....

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... on%2c%20TX

[Air Force Met]

Another note: that 500 mb chart for the Thursday system looks really good for a storm across Texas once again but where are we going to find the moisture ?

Two places...1st place is that huge body of water known as the Pacific. 700mb flow will be sucking in Pacific moisture...moistening up the column. 2nd place is the Gulf. The low will throw plenty of moisture in.

This is very similar to Christmas 2004...but perhaps with a little more moisture available...and colder temps (so a higher ratio).

Looks even closer to the Feb 1960 storm that dumped 4.4" in Houston.

Feb12, 1960's storm had more of a closed off low...especially at 700mb...whereas this years is more of a trof. I think that is the reasong there is more moisture avilable than in 1960 as well...better advection off the Pacific.

[Turtle]

We have a freeze warning now. Not sure why since we've been below freezing many times. Should have been hard freeze warning or nothing at all. :p

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

[
And I shudder to think how the peeps in that area of Saskatchewan are surviving (I know most wont have fireplaces and they can't get out and help can't get to their location and their furnaces depend on electricity to run).

Ms Screamer,

You left the fans (or turbines) on high this time. Goodness gracious..[/quote]

In Fahrenheit the lowest temps (windchill included) we've felt was -49 F (woke up this morning and my shoulders were really cold...we have our furnace set at 62F ... a little low for what is outside).

Between the arctic cold, the wind and the snow pack up here (and rapidly covering areas down there) you folks should be getting a winter to remember.

[Air Force Met]

An Air Force Met sighting! Good to see you post dude.

Good to be posting. I've been so busy I don't have much free time to get online.

It's a gonna snow in Houston

How much is the question.

Do you think college station and san antonio will at least see a dusting of the white stuff?

I think San Antonio will see some flurries...but accumulations of less than 1/2" are probable. I could see CLL getting 1/2 - 1" if things work out.

As far as the Houston area...if you look at previous 1" or greater snow events (1960, Jan 1973, Both feb 1973's, feb 1980, Jan 1985, Dec 1989, dec 2004)...most of these events are similar to the setup we will have: A positively tilted trof with increasing 700 Rh from the SW. So...I think most of Houston should see 3/4-1". The potential is there for this system to produce much higher amounts in spots...it all depends on moisture. We won't be wasting any precip to cool down the column like we normally do. We will ahve to moisten it...but once that is done...it should be all snow.