Texas Winter 2020-2021

[HockeyTx82]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

Yes, I did. I was 1. I also survived the '88 cold snap.

[Cerlin]

The snow here picked up. We have at least a half inch. No grass showing. Nice surprise!

[Iceresistance]

The snow here picked up. We have at least a half inch. No grass showing. Nice surprise!

Same thing here near Tecumseh, except it's a dusting . . .

EDIT: Just measured it, 1/4 inch . . . LOL

[Shoshana]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

I was there living at home in North Dallas. It’s been a minute, but yes there were broken water mains and a lot of outages. More overhead power lines

[Brandon8181]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

Yes, I did. I was 1. I also survived the '88 cold snap.

Me too, but to young to remember.

[Shoshana]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

Yes, I did. I was 1. I also survived the '88 cold snap.

That was the one where it was below zero right? So many people I know had their cars break down after that because of transmission problems. I don’t know the correlation but it was a thing.

[bubba hotep]

18z GEFS Mean snowfall is CRAZY!

10-12 inches in Central Oklahoma
12-15 inches in DFW
(up to 16-17 inches near Texarkana)

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_meansnacc_180.png
NOTE: All totals are 10:1 Ratio snowfall, 15:1 to 25:1 ratios are in Oklahoma

Ensemble Members (LOOK AT MEMBERS #4, #6, & #13 )

https://s2.gifyu.com/images/GEFSSGP_prec_snens_222.png

When the ensemble means look like an operational run that everyone would typically dismiss as unrealistic lol

[Cerlin]

Anyone who is worried about any shifts from the models: don’t. The globals usually shift a lot 48 hours in advance and then revert back to their previous outlook from 72 hours out. At least, usually...

[rwfromkansas]

That ensemble mean. Wow. TX would be shut all week. I am surprised I didn’t see more at Home Depot. Probably a lot not taking it seriously yet or just getting the memo today.

[Iceresistance]

That ensemble mean. Wow. TX would be shut all week. I am surprised I didn’t see more at Home Depot. Probably a lot not taking it seriously yet or just getting the memo today.

The 18z GEFS Ensemble Mean?

[gboudx]

Rockwall ISD is already preparing for difficult road conditions next week. The plan right now is everyone is going virtual Tue, Wed, Thu. They're off Monday and optimistic Friday will be better.

[Quixotic]

That ensemble mean. Wow. TX would be shut all week. I am surprised I didn’t see more at Home Depot. Probably a lot not taking it seriously yet or just getting the memo today.

My son just sent me a pic of the checkout line at the grocery. Unreal. Potato chips were wiped out. But I got a 16 lb brisket that should hold us over.

[Iceresistance]

KFOR is having Highs below zero not out of the Question!

[Tejas89]

anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

My family lived in North Dallas in ‘83 and we remember that December well. It stayed below freezing for 2 weeks, finally thawing out on New Year’s Eve.

Not a ton of precip but what fell just before and during that period stuck around and formed a crust on lawns. Roads were ok most of the time. We played hockey on a tennis court and had fun “skating” on the local creeks.

It did such a number on vegetation Lee Trevino ripped the four seasons TPC as a “goat ranch” during the Byron Nelson in May.

The only thing really close to that fairly recently was super bowl week, 2011. But this will beat 2011 by a lot if the forecasts hold and will rival ‘83.

[Quixotic]

Is there anyone here that went thru the 1983 Texas cold snap in Dallas? Curious how the infrastructure held up back then? Did parts of the city lose running water and how bad the power outages might have been?

Yep. Lot of busted pipes. No outages that I remember. Lot more people in the area. Like 4MM more.

[gboudx]

Update from Jeff Lindner for SETX.

NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for all SE TX counties from 300pm Sunday to 600pm Monday

A significant, impactful, and dangerous winter storm will impact much of TX Sunday night into Monday…travel conditions will be extremely hazardous.

Historic and challenging cold will cripple the region Sunday night-Tuesday or longer.

There is 48 hours left to prepare for this hazardous event and maximum preparations should be well underway to attempt to mitigate property damage.

Discussion:
As the Sunday night and Monday storm system now begins to come into the range of the short range models, we are starting to get a bit more confidence in the P-type. Unfortunately it is looking like a shallow cold air layer with temperatures warmer aloft will promote mostly a freezing rain profile with increase mixture of sleet and snow as one moves north of I-10. It still remain possible that all P-types (freezing rain, sleet, and snow) could be experienced at all locations.

Since we are starting to lean more toward the freezing rain potential will start to put some accumulations out, but these are subject to change. Current thinking is most areas that experience freezing rain will have .10 to .20 of an inch of accumulation with maybe 1-3 inches of sleet and snow north of the freezing rain area. With winds of 15-25mph and higher gusts Sunday night into Monday combined with the ice accumulation may result in tree damage and power outages.

Precipitation should end Monday early afternoon with bitter cold temperatures into the low 10’s north of I-10 and mid 10’s south of I-10. Wind chills Monday night into Tuesday will fall into the 1’s or even -1’s over the area.

Second Storm System:
A second winter storm may potentially affect the area Wednesday into Wednesday night with additional threat of mixed precipitation phases, but this is still uncertain.

Decision Support Timing:

Winter Precipitation Onset: after 600pm Sunday

Winter Precipitation End: early afternoon Monday

Onset Freezing temperatures: Sunday evening extending into Tuesday and possibly longer

Preparations:
I cannot stress enough the need for maximum cold weather preparations to help mitigate significant property damage

Protect all and any exposed pipes, shut off and drain sprinkler systems. Open cabinet doors and closet doors to get as much heat against outside facing wall pipes as possible starting Sunday night. In some cases the best course of action may be to shut off water to a structure and drain pipes overnight when water usage is low to avoid pipes freezing and bursting.

Heavily cover and protect any tropical vegetation, citrus, or vulnerable plants. Given the intensity and depth of the freezing conditions this will likely be a killing freeze for much of the tropical landscape of this region.

Pets and livestock should have proper shelter, feed, and water. Normal water supplies will likely freeze over including stock ponds and lakes.

Persons should plan to limit outdoor exposure Monday and Tuesday as wind chills will be dangerously cold for our region. Prolonged exposure could result in frostbite and hypothermia.

[HouTXmetro]

I was in Houston for the 88/89 I think artic outbreak. Our home sat on cinderblocks and the pipes beneath it burst. We were without water for like 2 weeks.

[rwfromkansas]

That ensemble mean. Wow. TX would be shut all week. I am surprised I didn’t see more at Home Depot. Probably a lot not taking it seriously yet or just getting the memo today.

The 18z GEFS Ensemble Mean?

Yep.

[bubba hotep]

Looks like DFW only got to 26F after a forecast high of 32F. This air mass has been giving both models and forecasters fits.

[Ralph's Weather]

Rockwall ISD is already preparing for difficult road conditions next week. The plan right now is everyone is going virtual Tue, Wed, Thu. They're off Monday and optimistic Friday will be better.

Same situation here in Lindale