Texas Winter 2021-2022

[dpep4]

What is your temperature?

98.5, but that's not important right now.

[vbhoutex]

Elevated objects are just now starting to glaze over here. Still mostly wet, but not for long.

Same started here about an hour ago.

[bubba hotep]

That's a strong ensemble cold signal in the long range

[harp]

That's a strong ensemble cold signal in the long range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020312/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_62.png

Ooohh!! That includes me in Louisiana!! Maybe this will be our turn!

[wxman57]

Well with the main part of the event over for us in south central Texas, I have to give kudos to the NWS. They nailed it with their forecast of up to 1/4" of ice and up to 1/2" of sleet. That is pretty much what fell if you average out the reports here in Travis County. What was a surprise was the thunderstorms last night (12 midnight-2 am-ish) and the heavy rain which fell. Showers and a t-storm or two were in the forecast but I'm thinking the intensity of what we had probably surprised even the NWS forecasters.

We had 66 low water crossings in the Austin metro area closed this morning!

Hey wxman57, when's summer?

It's not coming soon enough. Temperature here in SW Houston is 33F with rain. Maybe there will be some sleet overnight, but I'm not going out there. I can see ice quite easily any time I want - right in my freezer. Looking forward to some hot ride days with the salt crusting on my face. Want to get into better shape for my 65th birthday this August, and it's fun to drop 30 year-olds on the bike trail...

Oh, by the way, I have not been bullish on any of the model's winter weather forecasts all winter - until a week ago. I told y'all I'd let you know when I really saw winter weather coming.

[Cpv17]

That's a strong ensemble cold signal in the long range

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs-ens/2022020312/gfs-ens_T850a_namer_62.png

That looks absolutely beautiful! Looks like stronger cold than the current event. That’s about as strong of a look as you can get at that range.

[HockeyTx82]

Had a long day out in the sleet and snow. Took my 6 year old sledding and walking around.

We had a great day.

Later on I was able to ice skate down the streets in my neighborhood.

[Snowman67]

Well with the main part of the event over for us in south central Texas, I have to give kudos to the NWS. They nailed it with their forecast of up to 1/4" of ice and up to 1/2" of sleet. That is pretty much what fell if you average out the reports here in Travis County. What was a surprise was the thunderstorms last night (12 midnight-2 am-ish) and the heavy rain which fell. Showers and a t-storm or two were in the forecast but I'm thinking the intensity of what we had probably surprised even the NWS forecasters.

We had 66 low water crossings in the Austin metro area closed this morning!

Hey wxman57, when's summer?

It's not coming soon enough. Temperature here in SW Houston is 33F with rain. Maybe there will be some sleet overnight, but I'm not going out there. I can see ice quite easily any time I want - right in my freezer. Looking forward to some hot ride days with the salt crusting on my face. Want to get into better shape for my 65th birthday this August, and it's fun to drop 30 year-olds on the bike trail...

Oh, by the way, I have not been bullish on any of the model's winter weather forecasts all winter - until a week ago. I told y'all I'd let you know when I really saw winter weather coming.

What are your thoughts for the mid-Feb time frame?

[Haris]

Looks like it was 1.5 for DFW, not 1.

[Hurricane_Apu]

A few ice pellets were mixing in during a thunderstorm here (Lafayette) in the last hour. Temps still in the low 40's and not sure if that was technically sleet or hail...

[Iceresistance]

I'm still under a Winter Storm Warning until Midnight, there is still MORE snow coming, what wave is this one? Number 4? Also, the next wave of snow is getting stronger & growing as it's coming here.

Either way, I've not measured the snowfall since this morning, but I've estimated another 2-3 inches have fallen, the final conclusion on the snowfall will come tomorrow.

And the Temperature is currently 15°F

[TropicalTundra]

Any chance that snowband just west of WF may hit the Metroplex or head SE? Or will dry air settle in before it moves anywhere. Would be cool to see at least a few extra flurries.

[gboudx]

Update from jeff for SETX.

Freezing line progressing to the US 59 corridor.

US 290 is closed in both directions through Waller County for de-icing operations.

SH 99 is closed in both directions at FM 1093. Flyover ramps also iced over

There are also reports of patchy ice on secondary roadway bridges in Cinco Ranch and Katy.

I-10 between Sealy and Columbus has multiple locations with ice on bridges.

Any travel tonight through 1000am Friday morning should use extreme caution on any bridges or overpasses.

Back end of heavier precipitation (freezing rain and some sleet) is near the US 59 corridor and this lines up pretty well with surface freezing line. To the NW some patchy light rain and drizzle continues into the sub-freezing air and ice has/is accumulated on elevated surfaces. The precipitation has generally been weakening this evening while sinking to the SE and this is expected to continue. Based on ice reports, surface temperatures need to fall to near 30 to cool the bridges enough for ice formation.

Expect the majority of the icing tonight to remain to the W and N of US 59 and the West Beltway around to I-45 and the north Beltway and then north and west. To the SE of this line a few icy patches may be possible, but with precipitation ending and temperatures in this region still in the 31-34 range, ice should be isolated. It is likely that most bridges and overpasses to the south of US 59 will likely dry before temperatures are cold enough for more than patchy ice concerns.

There remains some weak signal in short term model guidance that some light precipitation may linger near the coast and across the coastal counties into Friday morning and as temperatures fall below freezing in those areas early Friday there could be some light ice. This remains very low probability and anything would be extremely light.

Temperatures will be slow to warm on Friday with freezing temperatures likely lasting into the mid to late morning south of US 59 and midday for areas to the north of US 59. Until temperatures rise above freezing there is the potential for any leftover ice to remain on elevated surfaces.

[Brent]

I'm still under a Winter Storm Warning until Midnight, there is still MORE snow coming, what wave is this one? Number 4? Also, the next wave of snow is getting stronger & growing as it's coming here.

Either way, I've not measured the snowfall since this morning, but I've estimated another 2-3 inches have fallen, the final conclusion on the snowfall will come tomorrow.

And the Temperature is currently 15°F

OKC has reported snow 30 hours straight

[wxman57]

What are your thoughts for the mid-Feb time frame?

I'm completely against it. Note that there is extreme run-to-run variability that far out. That makes something not believable. Wait until something is predicted within about 168 hrs out, or at least within 240 hrs out but with multi-model support.

It's 31 here in SW Houston and my BBQ pit is covered in ice. The precip has ended, though.

[jasons2k]

Well, my friends north and west of here are about to learn an old word from the Harold Taft dictionary of Meteorology: sublimation.

PS- it's still so windy here, it's insane. Too windy to cover anything. A true blue norther. It is what it is...

[harp]

Well, my friends north and west of here are about to learn an old word from the Harold Taft dictionary of Meteorology: sublimation.

Huh??

[wxman57]

Well, my friends north and west of here are about to learn an old word from the Harold Taft dictionary of Meteorology: sublimation.

PS- it's still so windy here, it's insane. Too windy to cover anything. A true blue norther. It is what it is...

Technically, a blue norther is characterized by a very rapid drop in temperature, strong wind, and a dark blue (clear) sky. We're missing the rapid temperature drop (very slow drop all day) with a clear sky. Wind isn't very strong, either. Bush airport is reporting 17 kt winds but with gusts to 26 kts. Winds should be maybe 20-25 kts sustained with gusts 35-40 kts for such a front.

[wxman57]

Well, my friends north and west of here are about to learn an old word from the Harold Taft dictionary of Meteorology: sublimation.

Huh??

With a dry wind pushing into our area from the west, the ice on objects will sublimate quickly (change from a solid straight to a gas). Temps don't have to be above freezing for it to disappear.

[HockeyTx82]

Well, my friends north and west of here are about to learn an old word from the Harold Taft dictionary of Meteorology: sublimation.

Huh??

When a solid turns to gas without becoming liquid first.

Basically the wind or sun, on a very cold day, will cause ice and snow to "melt" straight to gas form even if it's below freezing.