Texas Winter 2024-2025

[Throckmorton]

Has the Canadian ever been right? Stupid temps it’s putting out.

Yes, most famously in February 2021.

[Gotwood]

Has the Canadian ever been right? Stupid temps it’s putting out.

Yes, most famously in February 2021.

You throw out crazy runs every couple weeks one is bound to be right lol. GFS has me laughing a little supposedly there is going to be a 1056 HP in Colorado on the 21st yet temps in Dallas at 30.

[Stratton23]

Euro caved to the GFS and now has a wintry mess for se texas

[Stratton23]

GEPS still crazy cold, now the 00z GEFS is coming in significantly colder as well

[Sambucol2024]

Euro caved to the GFS and now has a wintry mess for se texas

That wintry mess: is that snow or ice or both?

[Stratton23]

Sambucol2024 combination of snow/ sleet and ice

[Sambucol2024]

Sambucol2024 combination of snow/ sleet and ice

Snow is good but ice will create some problems. All I can say is get prepared for this asap.

[Throckmorton]

Has the Canadian ever been right? Stupid temps it’s putting out.

Yes, most famously in February 2021.

You throw out crazy runs every couple weeks one is bound to be right lol. GFS has me laughing a little supposedly there is going to be a 1056 HP in Colorado on the 21st yet temps in Dallas at 30.

That's because the really cold air will be well east of that center, not underneath it. That can happen, even more so when the center is over high elevations.

[Throckmorton]

The EPS mean forecast temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 00Z run):

21–10...(32–B02)...B02...0.63...Amarillo
35–23...(41–16).....17......0.08...Austin Camp Mabry
30–20...(35–14).....10......0.04...Dallas
42–27...(47–21).....20......0.04...Houston
23–11...(33–04).....01......0.24...Oklahoma City
22–12...(28–05).....B03...0.20...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Tulsa would not get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the EPS is 4.6° cooler than the GEFS and 8.6° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEFS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 00Z run):

24–13...(32–06)...B02...0.76...Amarillo
40–28...(48–22)...17.....0.19...Austin Camp Mabry
36–25...(40–19)...10.....0.17...Dallas
46–34...(52–30)...20.....0.03...Houston
26–19...(33–14)...01.....0.20...Oklahoma City
24–16...(29–12)...B03...0.22...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, only Austin Camp Mabry would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

On average, the GEFS is 13.2° warmer than the GEPS.

=====

The GEPS mean forecast high and low temperatures for Jan. 20th along with the 90th and 10th percentiles plus the daily record lows and snow on the ground (Jan. 14th, 00Z run):

10–B02...(20–B07)...B02...0.98...Amarillo
25–17.....(42–10)......17.....0.55...Austin Camp Mabry
21–15.....(30–09)......10.....0.28...Dallas
36–24.....(48–16)..... 20.....0.35...Houston
11–02.....(21–B02)....01.....0.51...Oklahoma City
12–02.....(19–B04)...B03...0.39...Tulsa

At the 10th percentile, all of these stations would break the existing record lows. At the 50th percentile, every station would get within five degrees of the existing record lows.

[richtrav]

Has the Canadian ever been right? Stupid temps it’s putting out.

What?? Why would anyone doubt that it might NOT drop to 5 in Phoenix and -22 in El Paso? Any good Canadian run has minima over 10 degrees lower than the all-time records at least somewhere.

[Lagreeneyes03]

GFS with back to back snow storms for se texas , wowza!

And me as well!!! I wish this was two days out and I would feel more confident!

If it's anything like the last system, it will keep trending north and end up in Oklahoma at the last minute lol

[South Texas Storms]

A lot of folks in here are going to be waking up happy this morning

6z GFS shows a winter storm developing in TX early next week and then spreading eastward across much of the Southern U.S.

[Nederlander]

A lot of folks in here are going to be waking up happy this morning

6z GFS shows a winter storm developing in TX early next week and then spreading eastward across much of the Southern U.S.

That run would wreak havoc on refining along the GC. Get ready for fuel prices to skyrocket if that were to verify.

[Throckmorton]

Right along the Texas coast, the precipitation would be rain instead of snow according to the GFS model.

[Ralph's Weather]

A lot of folks in here are going to be waking up happy this morning

6z GFS shows a winter storm developing in TX early next week and then spreading eastward across much of the Southern U.S.

A casual foot and a half for Deep E TX haha.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

A lot of folks in here are going to be waking up happy this morning

6z GFS shows a winter storm developing in TX early next week and then spreading eastward across much of the Southern U.S.

A casual foot and a half for Deep E TX haha.

My people in Longview rejoice.

I’m off to Kansas City. Keep the winter weather runs coming folks!

[WinterMax]

The GFS 06z precipitation map is out of control, someone needs to do an intervention on them, if their 21 plus inches of ice and snow, all the way down to the I-10 corridor verifies, it would end us down here.

[WinterMax]

The GFS latest model runs, as far as how the arctic air is delivered down here in south Louisiana looks odd to me. I may be wrong but I don’t really see a clear digging of the arctic air so much, it just seems to pop in on Monday and Tuesday. Can someone explain this look? Maybe I’m not perceiving it correctly.

[3090]

The GFS latest model runs, as far as how the arctic air is delivered down here in south Louisiana looks odd to me. I may be wrong but I don’t really see a clear digging of the arctic air so much, it just seems to pop in on Monday and Tuesday. Can someone explain this look? Maybe I’m not perceiving it correctly.

Usually the EURO does not show the coldest air filtering all the way down to the GC. This event, the EURO had the artic air diving deep to the GC, while the GFS is conservative, but has the moisture needed. Will be an interesting few days coming up, leading into what may be a historical type of winter weather event.

[Throckmorton]

The accumulations in southern Louisiana on the GFS 06Z forecast map consist almost entirely of sleet. So, the 21 inches of predicted snow is actually about 2 inches of sleet.