Texas Winter 2014-2015

[TexasStorm]

What does the timing of the rain on Sunday look to be? Sounds like it will come through about mid day but I have yet to find anyone that can agree on the timing of the system. May be still a little early in the week to tell. Just wondering since the Dallas Marathon is Sunday morning. At least we don't have ice for the race this year.

[Tireman4]

What does the timing of the rain on Sunday look to be? Sounds like it will come through about mid day but I have yet to find anyone that can agree on the timing of the system. May be still a little early in the week to tell. Just wondering since the Dallas Marathon is Sunday morning. At least we don't have ice for the race this year.

Yeah my buddy was so bummed. I mean he was really hitting his marks ( for Sub 2:50) and whammo..nothing,..

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS (new and old versions) shifts back south on the track of the storm system this weekend. Like srain said, the models will probably struggle with this system until it gets into the RAOB (Radiosonde Observation) network in a few days.

[Ntxw]

Given the latest indicators, I'd put the odds of threading a needle chances running up to Christmas for "wintry" precipitation greater than normal. Storm after storm underneath increases those odds with climo.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 500 MB chart looks like a giant mess right now. Seems as if the very strong Jet stream out of the pacific is causing much of this havoc. Whats it going to take to calm this down? There are so many variables at play i know, anyone educate me a bit here as to why the jet is so strong right now? What dynamics are at play to make it as fierce as it is?

[Ntxw]

The 500 MB chart looks like a giant mess right now. Seems as if the very strong Jet stream out of the pacific is causing much of this havoc. Whats it going to take to calm this down? There are so many variables at play i know, anyone educate me a bit here as to why the jet is so strong right now? What dynamics are at play to make it as fierce as it is?

It's typical in El Nino. Split flow, higher heights above in Canada and lower heights below (relative to average) over the US forces northern stream energy from the Pacific to dig south in conjunction with STJ. That is why El Nino winters lacks the big singular arctic blasts more common in La Nina and some neutral years.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The 500 MB chart looks like a giant mess right now. Seems as if the very strong Jet stream out of the pacific is causing much of this havoc. Whats it going to take to calm this down? There are so many variables at play i know, anyone educate me a bit here as to why the jet is so strong right now? What dynamics are at play to make it as fierce as it is?

It's typical in El Nino. Split flow, higher heights above in Canada and lower heights below (relative to average) over the US forces northern stream energy from the Pacific to dig south in conjunction with STJ. That is why El Nino winters lacks the big singular arctic blasts more common in La Nina and some neutral years.

Thanks. Is this because of a stronger high at the 500MB level in the subtropics? Trying to figure out dynamically whats going on.

[Ntxw]

The 500 MB chart looks like a giant mess right now. Seems as if the very strong Jet stream out of the pacific is causing much of this havoc. Whats it going to take to calm this down? There are so many variables at play i know, anyone educate me a bit here as to why the jet is so strong right now? What dynamics are at play to make it as fierce as it is?

It's typical in El Nino. Split flow, higher heights above in Canada and lower heights below (relative to average) over the US forces northern stream energy from the Pacific to dig south in conjunction with STJ. That is why El Nino winters lacks the big singular arctic blasts more common in La Nina and some neutral years.

Thanks. Is this because of a stronger high at the 500MB level in the subtropics? Trying to figure out dynamically whats going on.

Yeah, Aleutian/GOA troughing/Ridging below creates a strong persistent gradient for a Pacific jet. In La Nina it is the opposite. Hawaii often experiences drought and dry/mild conditions as result of ridging in El Nino patterns in the winter due to the ridging below.

[TheProfessor]

we don't mind what people like best about the weather, Cold, Heat, Warm, Heck Wxman57 is one of the most popular members on this thread and we all no he is not a cold lover. We just don't want preferences put into forecast and model runs posted.

[texas1836]

With all this talk of El Nino, I just might get my 24" of snow.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, not trying to get off topic, but he would spin warm-biased slants in his interpretations of the models. Of course I have a biased towards wet and cool, but I don't try to say all the other models are wrong and twist it around to explain my words and justify why I am right all the time. Ok, 'nuff said.

Let's just hope we get some nice rain this weekend without all of the other adventures.

[weatherdude1108]

Here's Bob Rose's take on the weather event(s) as of 11:30am today. I just posted some excerpts from it.

Another Pacific storm system moving out of the southwestern US will bring a good chance for rain showers and thunderstorms to the region Sunday and Sunday night. Rain amounts look to average between 0.5 and 1 inch.

Forecast solutions indicate another trough of low pressure out of the Pacific will track east across the northern half of Texas Sunday into Sunday night. This system is forecast to cause a widespread area of rain showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening as it moves across the state. The chance for rain should end by about midnight Sunday night. The probability for rain will be near 50-60 percent. Today's data indicates the heaviest rains from this system will be focused across North and Northeast Texas. Locally, totals are forecast to be around 0.25-0.50 inches across the Hill Country and between 0.5 and 1 inch at most other locations

Another good chance for rain is forecast next Thursday and Friday when a Pacific storm system moves across Texas. There are some early indications this system could be fairly wet since it is forecast to take a more southerly route across South Texas.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[fendie]

This morning's forecast discussions have noted these developments in the models and have tempered the rainfall and severe potentials accordingly. JMA was the first to sniff this out.

12Z operational GFS and EURO have shifted S/SSW ~150 miles with the 500mb core as it rolls through the Panhandle 0Z-06Z Monday morning. The GFS also slowed it down by about 6 hours.

[fendie]

ECMWF operational 12/9 0Z run is much drier for Texas with the low taking a northerly track like the JMA has been predicting. Austin now progged for only 0.2 inches of rain. Dallas 0.6. Okla City less than half an inch.

12/9 12Z run rainfall totals back up with more southerly track of 500mb core.

Rainfall totals thru Monday evening:

GFS OP: Dallas -- 1.7; Austin 0.7; OKC -- 1.1
GFS Parallel: Dallas -- 1.3; Austin 1.4; OKC -- 1.3
ECMWF: Dallas -- 1.2; Austin 0.4; OKC -- 0.7

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF shows no arctic intrusions into the lower 48 through 10 days. In fact Southern Canada stays well above normal as far as temps and here is how the run ends at 10 days:

[gpsnowman]

http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/10d/gfs_pres_10d.gif
Day 10 according to this GFS map. Hopefully temps will be cold enough for snow. Looks like a soaker.

[gpsnowman]

At home today with a sick child so I re-read posts from the early December ice storm last year. Now if we could have the same thing with snow.........

[JDawg512]

I wouldn't be surprised at all if we saw up to 2 inches in some locations in the Austin area depending on the track of the low if it does nudge a bit further south. I really need to hurry up and complete my holiday light display before Friday.

[TheProfessor]

Another lower high than forecasted, Only reached 52 here. The sun didn't break through the could until around. It's 39 right now, but I'm guessing they are expecting clouds to roll in and raise are temperatures a bit.

[Ntxw]

Another lower high than forecasted, Only reached 52 here. The sun didn't break through the could until around. It's 39 right now, but I'm guessing they are expecting clouds to roll in and raise are temperatures a bit.

These clouds are relentless. It's going to roll back and stick around until Sat for the most part. Even then it will quickly come back from our next system come Sunday.