Pacific Northwest Weather

[R-Dub]

Thanks Brian!! Well snowwiz would be the expert on the historical side of it, I don't ever remember a double whammy express. If we get another one this weekend, that would make 3 this winter so far!!!

[R-Dub]

Yeah I will let you know Brian, thats awesome having an insider at King5!

King 5 did a 1hr special that they ran several times through the winter of 1990-91 about the pineapple express, and arctic express of 1990. I remember it well, and i'm hoping they still have that program so I can purchase it.

[R-Dub]

Here is a snipit from latest CPC discussion......

TODAYS NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON DEPICTING A MODERATE TO HIGH AMPLITUDE POSITIVE PNA-LIKE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. HOWEVER...OVER THE PACIFIC ESPECIALLY...WE DO NOT SEE A CLASSIC CANONICAL LOCKED-IN PNA SIGNATURE.

So my take is what I have been saying, positive PNA will be short lived!!!

[AnthonyC]

What are the latest PNA and AO predictions for the end of the month/beginning of February?

[Brian_from_bellingham]

Ensembles call it to go to about -1.5, but it bottoms out and may be on the way up. MRF calls for it to go to about -2.8 or so (PNA) As far as the AO, it looks like it goes to somewhere between -2 and -3, depending on the chart you look at, but then trend up again. Looks like it changes faster then PNA. Ensembles call it to be around -1, though one chart shows it between -1 and -2.

[snow_wizzard]

R-Dub...That is a good catch on your part!

I saw that, but the significance of it kind of escaped me at the time. That sure does hint that the + PNA is not likely to last.

As for the double pineapple express in 90....We had one Nov 9 - 12....the big one Nov 22 - 24, and then another shot Dec 3 & 4. It struck me at the time because we had multiple Pineapple expresses in 1861, 1949, and 1968 before mega cold spells. I have the same giddy feeling that I had in 90! I will never forget how angry some people were at me when the wicked cold spell I predicted almost a month in advance came to pass!

[Brian_from_bellingham]

And in 1990 there were two arctic expresses, one about a week before Christmas, the other about two days after Christmas.

[AnthonyC]

The winter of 1990 was just amazing in general...extreme weather events occurred throughout the entire season. Wasn't there a major wind event during that season? And there was two major arctic blasts...although the one before Xmas is more infamous because it lasted longer. We can only pray something like that happens in the next month.

[W13]

Welcome back R-Dub!

Currently 56 F and 0.60" in the rain gauge so far today/

[TT-SEA]

R-Dub... welcome back. It was not the same without you here!!

Down to 60 degrees here with 1.80 inches for the day and 5.45 inches total for the storm. North Bend is definitely favored for heavy rain in this situation compared to metro Seattle.

[AnthonyC]

Unbelievably windy the past forty-five minutes. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph. The lights have flickered a few times. What's the cause for the increase in wind?! Anyone else experiencing these gusty winds?

[R-Dub]

WOW TT, that is a lot of rain! We have had 1.15" total for the storm, and .20 for today

1/18/05 LK Goodwin WA
6:00:05 PM CURRENT
Cloudy/Windy
Temperature (ºF) 56.7
Humidity (%) 96.6
Wind (mph) SSW 23.5
Daily Rain (") 0.20
Pressure ("Hg) 30.11
Dew Point: 55.8 ºF

[TT-SEA]

I can't wait to see how this plays out!

For the record... I predict a period of low snow levels and cooler weather at the end of the month but no arctic blast and no lowland snow.

Then a wet, zonal flow type of February.

Time will tell.

[R-Dub]

Anthony, doesn't seem like every time we are in a rainshadow of a storm, it gets windy to very windy? Don't know why that is, but as soon as the rain starts it always calms down. We are getting quite windy up here at the moment also. Just driving back home here, and there are branches all over the roads.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah... North Bend always gets slammed with a pattern like this. We are outside the rain shadow and get major orographic enhancement from the Cascades.

There are rivers of water pouring off the hills along the freeway... but no flooding problems on this side of I-90. Snoqualmie and Carnation are in bad shape though.

The other interesting fact is that we have no wind at all. It is almost dead calm and has been for the entire event. The hills to our southwest prevent the strong southerly winds from reaching the surface here.

Calm... wet... and very warm.

[AnthonyC]

Man, it's VERY windy up here in Mukilteo!! I would say gusts are almost up to 50 mph. The lights keep flickering. R-Dub, I've noticed the same thing!! Seems like everytime we're part of the rain shadow, the winds really kick up. The only thing I can think of that might explain this is the 850 mb winds...they can sometimes mix down to the surface...and usually they're over 50 knots at 850 mb. That's the only reason I have...there's no surface low in close proximity. Very interesting stuff. The house continues to creak everytime we get a wind gust. It hasn't been this windy for awhile.

Anthony

[andrewr]

I'm going to go with the nay-sayers and predict there will be no arctic outbreaks in February, but believe the mountains will be able to start building a snowpack (again). Lets hope this Saturday is the last we see of the Pineapple Express for a while.

[TT-SEA]

Tropical plume now pointed to our north... tomorrow could be a pretty dry and VERY warm day!!

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo=sew&area=west&type=ir&size=16

[R-Dub]

TT, I agree tomarrow could be extremely warm!! At least in the southern areas. Though I think we may manage 60 degrees up here. I wonder if anyone will hit the big 70 mark????

Anthony, yeah I have always wondered why we get the big winds during the rainshadow, you maybe right about the 850MB winds, very possible.

Well it looks like we maybe evenly divided with how the end of Jan first of Feb will play out. I am still going to hold firm on the arctic blast idea!! Time will tell.

[snow_wizzard]

I respect the opinions of the people who think we are not going to see a major cold spell, but you are wrong!

I would be interested to know what your line of reasoning and evidence is for that opinion.