Winter Weather Discussion
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Sambucol
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#5401 Postby Sambucol » Fri Feb 04, 2022 12:56 pm
Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:Ok, what’s next?
We may repeat what just happened valentines week. Noreaster followed by digging southwest trof behind it.
Any idea if the temps will be as cold or colder than what we have now with this system?
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Iceresistance
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#5402 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:00 pm
Sambucol wrote:Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:Ok, what’s next?
We may repeat what just happened valentines week. Noreaster followed by digging southwest trof behind it.
Any idea if the temps will be as cold or colder than what we have now with this system?
Too far out to tell, we can only guess right now, but we will have better details about the next system as it gets closer.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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Texas Snowman
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#5403 Postby Texas Snowman » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:05 pm
Ok, so who got what?
Denison: 1/4” of ice; 1.5” of sleet; 1-2” of snow; lowest temperature of 20 (so far).
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The above post and any post by Texas Snowman is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Ntxw
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#5404 Postby Ntxw » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:12 pm
cheezyWXguy wrote:Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:Ok, what’s next?
We may repeat what just happened valentines week. Noreaster followed by digging southwest trof behind it.
One thing I find peculiar is that the gfs really doesn’t cool down the source region much even when the -EPO starts taking over again. I assume this something it may not have a great hold on this far out, but I figured there would be at least a run or two cooling it down more.
That's actually a good observation. It is not cross-polar flow with no ridge extension into Alaska. So caveat is, is it enough to generate cold air? Eps is a bit different up there and is a better pattern for it.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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wxman57
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#5405 Postby wxman57 » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:28 pm
One thing I notice (with the GFS) is that the current cross-Polar flow indicated at 500mb is gone this weekend, and it doesn't return over the next 16 days. Of course, the GFS can't be trusted beyond 3-5 days, so who knows what's coming? I just hope that the temperature never climbs above freezing. Just got back from a refreshing bike ride. There are icicles hanging down from my eyebrows.
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Snowman67
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#5406 Postby Snowman67 » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:43 pm
wxman57 wrote:One thing I notice (with the GFS) is that the current cross-Polar flow indicated at 500mb is gone this weekend, and it doesn't return over the next 16 days. Of course, the GFS can't be trusted beyond 3-5 days, so who knows what's coming? I just hope that the temperature never climbs above freezing. Just got back from a refreshing bike ride. There are icicles hanging down from my eyebrows.
Who hacked into Wx57"s account?

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Any forecast I make is based on my opinion only. Please refer to the NWS or NHC for official forecasts.
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Quixotic
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#5407 Postby Quixotic » Fri Feb 04, 2022 1:49 pm
gboudx wrote:Quixotic wrote:Just broke my snow shovel on the 1’ pile of sleet on my doorstep.
Heh. I did the same with a round point shovel many years ago, also trying to break through sleet and ice. Except it was like 2" of the nasty stuff. Broke the point right off. I decided to let Mother Nature take over.
Yeah, my house doesn't have gutters (don't ask). Places where the eaves junction the snow/sleet/ice piles up big time. The one in my back yard is 2'. Not quite what it was in 2013 where I had to hike over it to BBQ. The wooden handle which is pretty stout just snapped as I was trying to get some leverage from brick to ice. I just sprayed a bunch of deicer so hopefully that'll do it.
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Brent
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#5408 Postby Brent » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:00 pm
I'm saying 6 inches at my apartment. Biggest snowstorm I've seen since i started really tracking in the mid 90s. I'm happy and the NWS did a good job here 7.5 at the airport and their first guess on Sunday had 8 for Tulsa!
But I just went out driving and its becoming a lot of ugly brown slush so I'm good with it starting to melt

the sooner the better if it's gonna look like that

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Ralph's Weather
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#5409 Postby Ralph's Weather » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:33 pm
Not near the foot of snow I had last Feb or even the few inches I had last Jan, but still a fun event to track. Moisture just was lacking once the coldest air arrived.
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cajungal
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#5410 Postby cajungal » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:38 pm
Any more cold shots showing up in future before it is all said and done? SE Louisiana missed out on the fun (not that I wanted ice) but even a few flakes would make me happy. Instead of just freezing when I walk outside lol
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Cpv17
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#5411 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:57 pm
cajungal wrote:Any more cold shots showing up in future before it is all said and done? SE Louisiana missed out on the fun (not that I wanted ice) but even a few flakes would make me happy. Instead of just freezing when I walk outside lol
It’s possible around the middle part of this month. Not too confident in that yet though.
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cajungal
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#5412 Postby cajungal » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:59 pm
Cpv17 wrote:cajungal wrote:Any more cold shots showing up in future before it is all said and done? SE Louisiana missed out on the fun (not that I wanted ice) but even a few flakes would make me happy. Instead of just freezing when I walk outside lol
It’s possible around the middle part of this month. Not too confident in that yet though.
Yeah can’t even put confidence beyond 72 hours out these days. We could be in coats or shorts
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gpsnowman
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#5413 Postby gpsnowman » Fri Feb 04, 2022 2:59 pm
Texas Snowman wrote:Ok, so who got what?
Denison: 1/4” of ice; 1.5” of sleet; 1-2” of snow; lowest temperature of 20 (so far).
1.7 inches combined sleet and snow in DFW. Record low tomorrow is 12. It will close.
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CentralTxAggie
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#5414 Postby CentralTxAggie » Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:10 pm
Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:Ok, what’s next?
We may repeat what just happened valentines week. Noreaster followed by digging southwest trof behind it.
no, just no....that would be the anniversary of Snovid 21....no, nope, negative...

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No forecasts from this lurker, but I will tell you what is going on outside my window.

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DallasAg
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#5415 Postby DallasAg » Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:17 pm
Back above freezing at DFW as of 2:00p. Let's get the thaw going. Hopefully some thawing and drying of the surface streets will make tomorrow morning less treacherous.
Shaded areas will probably be a problem until Sunday morning though.
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Iceresistance
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#5416 Postby Iceresistance » Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:22 pm
CentralTxAggie wrote:Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:Ok, what’s next?
We may repeat what just happened valentines week. Noreaster followed by digging southwest trof behind it.
no, just no....that would be the anniversary of Snovid 21....no, nope, negative...

More like the Anniversary of the Cold Wave that defined the first 1/3 of 2021.
(NOTE: Not intended for criticism, the part of 'Cold wave that defined the first 1/3 of 2021' just sounds better & makes more since since it was the biggest even of the first 4 months of 2021)
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021 
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say
Never with weather! Because
ANYTHING is possible!
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HockeyTx82
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#5417 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:24 pm
My neighbor filmed my youngest and I. He has lived here 17 years, said he's never seen this before....
https://www.vzmessages.com/vl/511b86179 ... 165dcdb002Keeping true to my Storm 2k name

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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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gboudx
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#5419 Postby gboudx » Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:47 pm
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Cpv17
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#5420 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Feb 04, 2022 3:59 pm
CentralTxAggie wrote:Ntxw wrote:harp wrote:Ok, what’s next?
We may repeat what just happened valentines week. Noreaster followed by digging southwest trof behind it.
no, just no....that would be the anniversary of Snovid 21....no, nope, negative...

Yes, just yes…positive. Bring it!

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