Texas Winter 2014-2015

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Portastorm
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5421 Postby Portastorm » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:00 am

Shoshana wrote:Just went from 41 to 36 here. I didn't think it was supposed to be this cold this soon...


It isn't per most model guidance. The north wind is still howling out there as cold air advection continues to bring colder air into south central Texas.
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#5422 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:03 am

Down to 28 here per NWS Everything will stick like glue.
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#5423 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:10 am

@fortworthpd: Many accident calls coming in, pls stay off the roads if possible http://t.co/y7CIT8Qk3W
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#5424 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:19 am

@JasonWhitely: FYI. Be careful. RT @fortworthpd: 5300 I30 west bound over camp Bowie is CLOSED.  Impassable due to ice http://t.co/AbQkl0cZR6
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5425 Postby bevolon » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:27 am

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
serenata09 wrote:That HRRR run is a little frightening. What kind of impacts would that much precip have?


With such cold temperatures, none of it will melt and stick on impact. You will quickly get several inches of sleet under a thunderstorm locally. 850mb front is sitting between Dallas and Tarrant counties, expect storms to line up and cross that boundary at it's heaviest.


What in the world is up with the latest GFS ?...completely loses the enhanced convection, has less than a tenth of precip for the Metroplex. Wonder if it initialized incorrectly ?


Would someone mind explaining what Orangeblood is saying here in regards to the impact on DFW? I am more of an weather enthusiast and don't understand the models that well. Also i am trying to decide if will open our office in the morning.
I really enjoy all of your insight on the weather i read everyday!
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#5426 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:36 am

:uarrow: He is saying that the GFS lossed the heavier storms on the latest model run, though By this time shrt range models and radar observations are what we should look at now. If I were you I'd leave the office closed, If some of the short range model are right than travel could be nearly impossible here.
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#5427 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:42 am

@TxDOTParis: We are checking roads across NE Texas. Some bridges in Grayson Co. are icing already. Check roads B4 U travel. Be cautious & drive safely.
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#5428 Postby Texas Snowman » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:43 am

@TXDOTWF: Entire Wichita Falls District: All areas report icy conditions on bridges & mainlanes. Travel only if necessary. Speed a factor in wrecks.
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Re:

#5429 Postby bevolon » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:47 am

TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: He is saying that the GFS lossed the heavier storms on the latest model run, though By this time shrt range models and radar observations are what we should look at now. If I were you I'd leave the office closed, If some of the short range model are right than travel could be nearly impossible here.


Thanks you for the explanation!
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Re: Re:

#5430 Postby TrekkerCC » Mon Feb 23, 2015 12:52 am

bevolon wrote:
TheProfessor wrote::uarrow: He is saying that the GFS lossed the heavier storms on the latest model run, though By this time shrt range models and radar observations are what we should look at now. If I were you I'd leave the office closed, If some of the short range model are right than travel could be nearly impossible here.


Thanks you for the explanation!


I concur with The Professor up above. The HRRR (the short-range model which is very high resolution) shows (and has consistently shown) a major event during the morning hours with sleet (and potential intense thundersleet). The radar should be lighting up in a couple of hours according to the HRRR model. Unless the radar doesn't fill in with precipitation as expected, then I think we should discount (or give little weight) to the GFS in the short term.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5431 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:23 am

Down to 34.5 in NW Austin.
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#5432 Postby TheProfessor » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:27 am

:uarrow: Waco is at 33 I'm surprised they aren't extending Winter Storm Warnings, Huge Temp Busts everywhere!
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#5433 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:32 am

If my nearest weather station is to be believed, we could theoretically get a degree or two of wet bulbing if/when the precipitation picks up. But the temperature has been pretty steadily declining over the last 12 hours.
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5434 Postby iorange55 » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:37 am

About to get a bit of sleep before the good stuff arrives. It looks like the radar is starting to fill in just west/southwest of Abilene.

*fingers crossed*
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#5435 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:41 am

Euro says we get a little snow on top of the sleet come Tuesday night/Weds morning from the ejecting 5h vorticity (the actual storm coming out).
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5436 Postby Shoshana » Mon Feb 23, 2015 1:59 am

Longhornmaniac8 wrote:Down to 34.5 in NW Austin.


35 on my gauge but it rounds. Nearest pws on wunderground has 34.7.
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#5437 Postby Ntxw » Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:49 am

Starting to light up out there to the southwest. HRRR and the RAP are doing a good job, FW is following closely with their graphics. Both send moderate to heavy sleet along I-20 in the morning.

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5438 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 23, 2015 2:54 am

My back fence is encased in ice already.

Meanwhile...

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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5439 Postby Brent » Mon Feb 23, 2015 3:51 am

I don't mean to stray off the impending chaos....

but has anyone looked at Wednesday? That wave has now blown up into a full blown snowstorm just east of here(maybe in E TX even) on some model runs and we get into the fringes Wednesday morning it appears with maybe a light snow of some kind even in DFW and there seems to be consistency in the idea now

I'm getting raw forecasts from Texarkana and Shreveport of near 90-100% snow... and the only difference here is a couple degrees and lower pops(but it would also come in earlier here)
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Re: Texas Winter 2014-2015

#5440 Postby somethingfunny » Mon Feb 23, 2015 3:58 am

Roads here in East Dallas have been fine so far. The wind has dried out most of the rainfall before it could freeze into widespread black ice. Radar is slowly filling in but it's not exactly impressive yet...

It looks like the holder has taken the snap and the kicker is going for it. :)

Image
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