Texas Winter 2025-2026

[rwfromkansas]

Made it to 30 IMBY. Solar radiation is dropping now so maybe 31. Kind of hope we don’t make freezing just to keep the streak. lol.

Good melting but much less than snow so that’s one plus of sleet I guess.

[Ntxw]

Look at all the snow and sleet on the ground. This was a great winter storm IMO.

https://i.ibb.co/tTpWSmcG/20260261711-GOES19-ABI-sp-GEOCOLOR-1200x1200.jpg

Phenomenal! Strange how some on here are underwhelmed by the magnitude of this storm. It's historic for a massive area of this country including the southern plains....record low maxs/mins, snowfall records were set all over the place. This type of storm is very rare!

100% my thoughts and prayers go out to those hit hardest in Mississippi and Tennessee. To be out of power with that kind of cold and more cold coming is scary.

Really glad we avoided that freeze rain. Apocalyptic out in northwestern Mississippi and the troubles for them is just getting started. More outages and cold, they're having their ongoing disaster out there...yikes. And warmth isn't coming anytime soon that way.

[HockeyTx82]

Went from 18 at 8AM to 24 at 11:21AM. I wonder if we'll get above freezing today?

We will likely hold 26-28 for a while. Upper end would be 30 considering it is still 20s in south central TX. To get above freezing you will likely need to be 30 by 1-2pm. In winter generally peak solar heating is about time time frame near 2-3.

Looks like I hit 31 just now........

Of course with the Sun out who knows, that could be slightly off but that thermometer is generally pretty close to the airport.

[Ntxw]

Went from 18 at 8AM to 24 at 11:21AM. I wonder if we'll get above freezing today?

We will likely hold 26-28 for a while. Upper end would be 30 considering it is still 20s in south central TX. To get above freezing you will likely need to be 30 by 1-2pm. In winter generally peak solar heating is about time time frame near 2-3.

Looks like I hit 31 just now........

Of course with the Sun out who knows, that could be slightly off but that thermometer is generally pretty close to the airport.

Is it in the shade? Denton is reporting 24-25 and DFW is 27-28.

[orangeblood]

Phenomenal! Strange how some on here are underwhelmed by the magnitude of this storm. It's historic for a massive area of this country including the southern plains....record low maxs/mins, snowfall records were set all over the place. This type of storm is very rare!

100% my thoughts and prayers go out to those hit hardest in Mississippi and Tennessee. To be out of power with that kind of cold and more cold coming is scary.

Really glad we avoided that freeze rain. Apocalyptic out in northwestern Mississippi and the troubles for them is just getting started. More outages and cold, they're having their ongoing disaster out there...yikes. And warmth isn't coming anytime soon that way.

We were very fortunate to avoid this same fate....easily could've been in the same trouble if the low level cold came in just a little warmer.

[Cpv17]

It looks like a tornado went down every street in Northern MS and TN. Insane footage I’m seeing.

[Quixotic]

I have a three foot drift of solid sleet up against my backyard gate. I’ve been working on it for two hours and it’s only opening about two inches. I need a jackhammer. I can’t get the trash cans out to the curb.

[Cpv17]

I have a three foot drift of solid sleet up against my backyard gate. I’ve been working on it for two hours and it’s only opening about two inches. I need a jackhammer. I can’t get the trash cans out to the curb.

Sounds like you need a blowtorch lol

[Golfisnoteasy75]

What we should watch for is a nosedive of the -AO. Ridge anomalies from Greenland->Davis Straits->Hudson Bay blocking should retrograde by that 2nd week of Feb. With the Pacific remaining favorable. MJO supports it.

Would this possibly lead to more southern storms?

Lower heights means a more active storm track across the US. How far south is anyone's guess currently.

Of course im not saying it will happen, but would a pv split, if it effects us, would the models adjust pretty quick to that?

[Ntxw]

Would this possibly lead to more southern storms?

Lower heights means a more active storm track across the US. How far south is anyone's guess currently.

Of course im not saying it will happen, but would a pv split, if it effects us, would the models adjust pretty quick to that?

Late Feb into March. The PV is splitting because the troposphere is already in -AO state and Aleutian low pattern will be the blow. SPV warming and reversal is a result of the troposphere part of the vortex breaking it apart and that the top part will reinforce what's happened below with a further breakdown.



This isn't unusual, in some cases where -ENSO weakens into a true +ENSO (1957, 1997, 2009, 2015 etc) cold happened in February and extended in to March and April in few cases. February is very sensitive to the AO.

[Golfisnoteasy75]

Lower heights means a more active storm track across the US. How far south is anyone's guess currently.

Of course im not saying it will happen, but would a pv split, if it effects us, would the models adjust pretty quick to that?

Late Feb into March. The PV is splitting because the troposphere is already in -AO state and Aleutian low pattern will be the blow. SPV warming and reversal is a result of the troposphere part of the vortex breaking it apart and that the top part will reinforce what's happened below with a further breakdown.

https://i.imgur.com/YAIWBlw.jpeg

This isn't unusual, in some cases where -ENSO weakens into a true +ENSO (1957, 1997, 2009, 2015 etc) cold happened in February and extended in to March and April in few cases. February is very sensitive to the AO.

I guess your factoring in for a lag that typically happens with these events. I heard it could be almost an instantaneous process to troposphere. If it happens at all

[bubba hotep]

Some of the 12z model runs today are picking up on a period of freezing drizzle/rain across portions of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

[Ntxw]

Of course im not saying it will happen, but would a pv split, if it effects us, would the models adjust pretty quick to that?

Late Feb into March. The PV is splitting because the troposphere is already in -AO state and Aleutian low pattern will be the blow. SPV warming and reversal is a result of the troposphere part of the vortex breaking it apart and that the top part will reinforce what's happened below with a further breakdown.

https://i.imgur.com/YAIWBlw.jpeg

This isn't unusual, in some cases where -ENSO weakens into a true +ENSO (1957, 1997, 2009, 2015 etc) cold happened in February and extended in to March and April in few cases. February is very sensitive to the AO.

I guess your factoring in for a lag that typically happens with these events. I heard it could be almost an instantaneous process to troposphere. If it happens at all

The main idea of an ssw is to drive the AO negative. It will already be negative and the troposphere structure is the reason why the stratosphere is breaking down so it really isn't changing the overall pattern. What it will do is because of this breakdown, initiated by the troposphere, is what will extenuate the ongoing negative AO through February and into March. If the SPV did not break down then the troposphere pattern would eventually go to zonal flow. Our cold snap now and next weekend would be the end of winter.

I believe what you're thinking of is if we were already in a warm pattern now then an SSW would change things up. But things are already cold and they will remain cold because of the SPV reversal.

[Ntxw]

DFW made it up to 32F.

[bubba hotep]

DFW made it up to 32F.

Does that break the streak or does it have to get above 32F?

[gpsnowman]

DFW made it up to 32F.

Weak. I'm still pissed it got above freezing during our Feb 21 streak

[gpsnowman]

Some of the 12z model runs today are picking up on a period of freezing drizzle/rain across portions of North Texas Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

I do believe schools will be cancelled Wednesday due to refreezing and this would just add to it

[Ntxw]

DFW made it up to 32F.

Does that break the streak or does it have to get above 32F?

There are two streaks below and at or below, but 34F now intrahour, see if it stands.

[rwfromkansas]

I just hit 34 so probably going for 40 tomorrow. The forecast is way too low.