Viewing latest models, it does look like we're headed into a very wet/cool pattern that could persist for the next two weeks.
One interesting note...the last few runs of the GFS continue the idea of an intense surface low tracking along the WA/OR coast and heading into Vancouver Island. If forecasts/projections are correct, a 980 mb surface low tracks into southern Vancouver Island. A windstorm in the middle of May? Has that ever occurred?! I'm not saying it can't happen, but I've never seen a windstorm happen later than April. Indeed, something to watch!
In the long range, latest GFS models build a nice ridge of high pressure towards the end of May...500 mb heights approach 576 by May 23. Hopefully that plays out.
Anthony
Pacific Northwest Weather
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Looking at the latest GFS tonight....it appears that around the middle of next week...specificaly late tuesday into wednesday, a fairly tight 992MB low pressure center tracks up from Northern California and on up through Western, OR and finally into cental sound of Western Wa. by later wednesday. During this time, 850MB heights are showing 1260M with temp of +3 to +6C and winds out WSW at 20kts. And 500MB heights are around 540DM with winds from the SSW at 30 - 40kts. So if things hold togeather, then maybe we all could be seeing some rather gusty winds.
-- Andy
-- Andy
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
We have been AT or ABOVE normal for 23 out of the last 24 days.
That is amazing since we have had good rain and many cloudy days in that same time period.
That is truly a propensity for warmth.
Even with the upcoming pattern change... it WILL get very wet... I am not convinced we will be that far below normal. In fact some days could actually be above normal with warmer nights and southerly flow at times. There will be a few days below normal... but probably nothing dramatic.
There was few days in the last month that I thought would be WAY below normal based on the upper air pattern and we were still a little above normal.
Snow_Wizzard... we have to mention the lack of cold weather!! If we had 23 out of 24 below normal days you would not let a day go by without mentioning it.
That is not meant to be mean-spirited at all. Just keeping us honest!!
That is amazing since we have had good rain and many cloudy days in that same time period.
That is truly a propensity for warmth.
Even with the upcoming pattern change... it WILL get very wet... I am not convinced we will be that far below normal. In fact some days could actually be above normal with warmer nights and southerly flow at times. There will be a few days below normal... but probably nothing dramatic.
There was few days in the last month that I thought would be WAY below normal based on the upper air pattern and we were still a little above normal.
Snow_Wizzard... we have to mention the lack of cold weather!! If we had 23 out of 24 below normal days you would not let a day go by without mentioning it.
That is not meant to be mean-spirited at all. Just keeping us honest!!
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
Here in Salem over the last 24 days, 11 days of our average highs have been at or below average; 13 have been above. If I take that out 30 days, we've had 17 at or below, 13 above. Our night time lows have been a little warmer than average, though. Over the last 24 days, our overall average has seen 7 below average days; 16 above. Over the last 30 days, we've had 14 below average days; 16 above. Today, we're expected to see a high of 72 degrees. That would be above average for us if we make it. Yesterday, we had a stubborn marine layer....looks like no burn off today either, but who knows?
0 likes
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
TT...There have been quite a number of normal days, so it's not a huge deal. On top of that, I am not nearly as worried about May as I was about April. 1968 had a cold snap in April almost identical to the one we had this year and that was followed by a May that had only 7 below normal days. Within that warm period there was a stretch of 19 consecutive days of above normal temps. It is interesting to note that we have very closely paralleled 1968 from March till now.
I think the next 10 days will be cooler than you are thinking. The heights and 850mb temps will be unseasonably low.
I think the next 10 days will be cooler than you are thinking. The heights and 850mb temps will be unseasonably low.
0 likes
I feel like the past three days have all been one day!
The stubborn stratus won't lift, even with the May sun. The airmass between 3-5k is so stabilized that the clouds won't burn off!! How ridiculous is this?!
It hasn't been sunny the entire week. And the sun won't make a return for awhile...at least the next week. A zonal flow is still expected to develop...or is in the process of developing as I speak...Friday and last thru all of next week.
I need some sun!! This weather is driving me nuts!!
Anthony
The stubborn stratus won't lift, even with the May sun. The airmass between 3-5k is so stabilized that the clouds won't burn off!! How ridiculous is this?!
It hasn't been sunny the entire week. And the sun won't make a return for awhile...at least the next week. A zonal flow is still expected to develop...or is in the process of developing as I speak...Friday and last thru all of next week.
I need some sun!! This weather is driving me nuts!!
Anthony
0 likes
-
TT-SEA
Dude... just relax.
It is pleasant enough outside. No rain and its not cold.
It will be plenty exciting during the next week. And the atmosphere will become well-mixed and there will be more sunshine than this week. There will also be periods of rain, wind, and even thunderstorms.
Plus... it will send us into summer with a very green landscape.
It is pleasant enough outside. No rain and its not cold.
It will be plenty exciting during the next week. And the atmosphere will become well-mixed and there will be more sunshine than this week. There will also be periods of rain, wind, and even thunderstorms.
Plus... it will send us into summer with a very green landscape.
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
-
snow_wizzard
- Category 4
- Posts: 994
- Joined: Mon Jan 17, 2005 12:15 am
- Location: Covington, WA
You could be right Weathergirl. The models and the current MJO do seem to indicate it could get quite warm later this month. Any bets that it will be "dirty" just like all of the warm weather of the past three weeks? We just can't seem to buy a clean sharp ridge to save our lives right now! It is almost eerie how similar this is to 1968. It will be interesting to see if that continues!
Anthony...I agree, this muck drives me crazy this time of year. I want storms and cool crisp air if it's going to be gloomy.
I must admit that I am surprised how we cannot seem to get a solidly below normal month in here. We have indeed fallen into a warm rut. Just bear in mind that cold ruts can happen just as easily and can begin very suddenly. It is inevitable the below normal temps will return! I still say that the observed weather, at least as far as temps are concerned, has not followed what one would expect, based on the upper level flow patterns. That trend began last spring and has not ended yet. Maybe there is just a lag time before the observed weather reacts. 1953 has repeatedly been an analog year (for the upper level flow pattern) for the past few months, and yet 1953 was much colder....
Anthony...I agree, this muck drives me crazy this time of year. I want storms and cool crisp air if it's going to be gloomy.
I must admit that I am surprised how we cannot seem to get a solidly below normal month in here. We have indeed fallen into a warm rut. Just bear in mind that cold ruts can happen just as easily and can begin very suddenly. It is inevitable the below normal temps will return! I still say that the observed weather, at least as far as temps are concerned, has not followed what one would expect, based on the upper level flow patterns. That trend began last spring and has not ended yet. Maybe there is just a lag time before the observed weather reacts. 1953 has repeatedly been an analog year (for the upper level flow pattern) for the past few months, and yet 1953 was much colder....
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good evening all. Another mostly cloudy day here with no real breaks in the clouds. Though late this afternoon, the clouds did thin out a bit to allow for some filitered sun, which we are having right now.
From viewing the latest GFS this evening....it appears that the nearly zonal flow is still on track for the weekend and with pretty rainy conditions at times as systems will be impacting our region about every day or so for the next couple weeks. Should also be breezy/windy at times as sytems will be varing in strength and speed.
-- Andy
From viewing the latest GFS this evening....it appears that the nearly zonal flow is still on track for the weekend and with pretty rainy conditions at times as systems will be impacting our region about every day or so for the next couple weeks. Should also be breezy/windy at times as sytems will be varing in strength and speed.
-- Andy
0 likes
Where's everyone?! This forum is getting boring. We need more people/conversation going on. But now that Winter is done, what can you expect?
Well, I guess I proved the above statement...nothing new tonight. Latest models continue the idea of a cooler/wetter pattern for the next two weeks. I would still watch the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame...the potential for a wind event is still there. But there is still variability.
Goodnite to all!
Anthony
Well, I guess I proved the above statement...nothing new tonight. Latest models continue the idea of a cooler/wetter pattern for the next two weeks. I would still watch the Tuesday thru Thursday time frame...the potential for a wind event is still there. But there is still variability.
Goodnite to all!
Anthony
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Not only could there be a possible wind event next week....but also some hefty rains too.
Weekend weather outlook:
Latest GFS tonight has some pretty rainy conditions moving into our region by early to mid afternoon saturday as a cold front starts to approach us. Rain should start to increase as the front nears. Air mass still stable this point as the front will probably be slow to move through. However, once the cold front finally does move on through the Puget sound area late saturday into real early sunday, the air mass behind the front will become moderately unstable during the day sunday. ETA, AVN, MRF showing lifted indices of 0 to -1, with Seattle weather sounding showing CAPE values well over 600+ J/KG and Helicity value of 350. TT index showing a value of 47 on the weather sounding.
As far as the upper layers go....850MB winds are light and from the SW to WSW with temp of about +6C, while the 500MB winds are rather brisk and at 35 to 40kts out of the South to SW. The 300MB jet streams winds are nearly in a westward direction at about 70kts for later saturday into sunday.
So over all, I would say for sunday that scattered T-Storms could be see across portions of Western Washington. But even more likely in the PSCZ....that is if one does develope. In order for the air mass to further destableize, we`ll have to have a fair amount of daytime heating aided by however much decent sunbreaks we can manage. And lastly, any T-Storms that do develope, will probably put down a heavy amount of rain in a short time span.
-- Andy
Weekend weather outlook:
Latest GFS tonight has some pretty rainy conditions moving into our region by early to mid afternoon saturday as a cold front starts to approach us. Rain should start to increase as the front nears. Air mass still stable this point as the front will probably be slow to move through. However, once the cold front finally does move on through the Puget sound area late saturday into real early sunday, the air mass behind the front will become moderately unstable during the day sunday. ETA, AVN, MRF showing lifted indices of 0 to -1, with Seattle weather sounding showing CAPE values well over 600+ J/KG and Helicity value of 350. TT index showing a value of 47 on the weather sounding.
As far as the upper layers go....850MB winds are light and from the SW to WSW with temp of about +6C, while the 500MB winds are rather brisk and at 35 to 40kts out of the South to SW. The 300MB jet streams winds are nearly in a westward direction at about 70kts for later saturday into sunday.
So over all, I would say for sunday that scattered T-Storms could be see across portions of Western Washington. But even more likely in the PSCZ....that is if one does develope. In order for the air mass to further destableize, we`ll have to have a fair amount of daytime heating aided by however much decent sunbreaks we can manage. And lastly, any T-Storms that do develope, will probably put down a heavy amount of rain in a short time span.
-- Andy
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Goooood morning you all...rise and shine!
Finally had some actuall sun this early morning, but at almost 9:30a.m we are having somewhat overcast skies with filtered sun. Also some pretty neat cirrus clouds pass through here, so will post some pics here in a bit. Current temp is 57, DP 54 and humidity 85%. Baro is 29.83 and steady.
-- Andy
Finally had some actuall sun this early morning, but at almost 9:30a.m we are having somewhat overcast skies with filtered sun. Also some pretty neat cirrus clouds pass through here, so will post some pics here in a bit. Current temp is 57, DP 54 and humidity 85%. Baro is 29.83 and steady.
-- Andy
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Here`s some pics of some cirrus clouds that I took earlier this morning.
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/d79a
http://pg.photos.yahoo.com/ph/ajc192004 ... .dir=/d79a
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
-
NorthernBuck
- Tropical Wave
- Posts: 1
- Joined: Fri May 13, 2005 3:06 pm
Hi
Hi all. New here and very glad to find this website. I'm a huge severe weather fan but have had no one to share in my excitement. Glad to see there are others like me around.
I'm in Northwest Ohio (Archbold, Fulton County) and it looks like we are going to be having an interesting afternoon. I'll be standing in the local Wal-Mart parking lot as my wife shops watching these things roll through with my digital in hand. This should be the first good storms of the season for us. As of now it looks like they are about a half an hour to 45 minutes out and starting to form nice bow echo's just to my south west.
Please be easy on me as I know some of the terminology but not all of it. I look forward to learning a lot from some of you more seasoned proffesionals.
I'm in Northwest Ohio (Archbold, Fulton County) and it looks like we are going to be having an interesting afternoon. I'll be standing in the local Wal-Mart parking lot as my wife shops watching these things roll through with my digital in hand. This should be the first good storms of the season for us. As of now it looks like they are about a half an hour to 45 minutes out and starting to form nice bow echo's just to my south west.
Please be easy on me as I know some of the terminology but not all of it. I look forward to learning a lot from some of you more seasoned proffesionals.
0 likes
-
weather girl
- Tropical Depression
- Posts: 63
- Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2005 2:35 pm
snow_wizard, I have a question for you. What are the top three things about this year so far that remind you of 68? I'm assuming the set-up then was similar to what we had in 1950??? I was looking at 1983 because we had a bit of a hot streak at the end of May that cooled off to a nice, pleasant summer, but it doesn't really match up. Thank you in advance.
Oh! And welcome, NorthernBuck. This is a great site.
Oh! And welcome, NorthernBuck. This is a great site.
0 likes
-
andycottle
- Category 5
- Posts: 1139
- Joined: Thu Jan 06, 2005 11:34 pm
- Location: Woodinville, Wa
Good afternoon folks.
Saturday should be an alright day, though will probably be mostly cloudy and maybe a light shower here and there. However, come sunday...that day is looking quite wet as the GFS, AVN, ETA, and MRF are all pointing to VERY wet conditions. In fact, the NAM 24hr - 48hr precip totals for sunday are showing near an inch of rain....if not more! Especaily since we`ll be under a moist South to SW flow with light to breezy winds up through about the 700MB level. Though 500MB winds are quite brisk and at around 40 to 45kts.
Surface temps should still remain seasonable as 850MB temps are in the +6C range. MOS GUIDANCE forecast for Seattle showing a high of 62 on saturday and high of 57 on sunday. Precip chances looking pretty good for both days as the chance is about 85% during the 24hr period.
Looking into next work week, monday also seems to be pretty wet and rainy. But tuesday through friday will be just some showers at times, but also some dry periods as well. Next weekend and beyond....looks like a nice ridge of high pressure and warmer temps build back into region that should allow for mostly sunny skies and drier days.
-- Andy
Saturday should be an alright day, though will probably be mostly cloudy and maybe a light shower here and there. However, come sunday...that day is looking quite wet as the GFS, AVN, ETA, and MRF are all pointing to VERY wet conditions. In fact, the NAM 24hr - 48hr precip totals for sunday are showing near an inch of rain....if not more! Especaily since we`ll be under a moist South to SW flow with light to breezy winds up through about the 700MB level. Though 500MB winds are quite brisk and at around 40 to 45kts.
Surface temps should still remain seasonable as 850MB temps are in the +6C range. MOS GUIDANCE forecast for Seattle showing a high of 62 on saturday and high of 57 on sunday. Precip chances looking pretty good for both days as the chance is about 85% during the 24hr period.
Looking into next work week, monday also seems to be pretty wet and rainy. But tuesday through friday will be just some showers at times, but also some dry periods as well. Next weekend and beyond....looks like a nice ridge of high pressure and warmer temps build back into region that should allow for mostly sunny skies and drier days.
-- Andy
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 7 guests