Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Brent]

Even up here way warmer than forecast. One thing I noticed here last night the airport had a southwest wind blowing off the downtown heat Island so that definitely helped but even the surrounding area stayed out of the single digits so yeah in general both the high yesterday and low this morning was too cold

We did have considerable snow melt but the ground was still covered and the side roads were still a mess

[Iceresistance]

Spring for the south is just around the corner.

https://i.imgur.com/QwYxEaK.gif

Yep, game over if this gets into 4,5,6

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png

And really unfortunate but not surprising we never were able to swing through the prime winter phases of 8-1-2

Unless it decides to go through 4,5, & 6 really quickly or becomes inactive again, Storm Season is upon us.

the MJO going through Phases 8-1-2 is overdue now, but the patterns won't let it go there at all!

[bubba hotep]

Spring for the south is just around the corner.

https://i.imgur.com/QwYxEaK.gif

Yep, game over if this gets into 4,5,6

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png

And really unfortunate but not surprising we never were able to swing through the prime winter phases of 8-1-2

Given current ENSO trends, P3 & 4 aren't horrible for N. Texas snow lovers. P5 is by far the worst. However, if we get a true MJO propagation into P6/7 and ENSO continues to trend neutral then I would put money on a March winter wx event for N. Texas.

[orangeblood]

Spring for the south is just around the corner.

https://i.imgur.com/QwYxEaK.gif

Yep, game over if this gets into 4,5,6

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/JFM/combined_image.png

And really unfortunate but not surprising we never were able to swing through the prime winter phases of 8-1-2

Given current ENSO trends, P3 & 4 aren't horrible for N. Texas snow lovers. P5 is by far the worst. However, if we get a true MJO propagation into P6/7 and ENSO continues to trend neutral then I would put money on a March winter wx event for N. Texas.

True, with the persistent NE Pacific ridge around there’s always a chance enough cold air will be around when wavelengths begin to shorten/bowling ball season cranks up

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is refusing to give up on the Valentines Week Cold & winter system the weekend after.

[orangeblood]

The GFS is refusing to give up on the Valentines Week Cold & winter system the weekend after.

The storm has backing from its ENS but not sure if cold enough, looking at source region 500 mb orientation

[Cpv17]

Hmmm..models just got a little more interesting today.

[Cpv17]

The CMC has some light snow in Houston.

[bubba hotep]

King Euro back?

[wxman22]

The ICON has it also.

[bubba hotep]

The ICON has it also.

https://i.ibb.co/Kqdr1R7/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-us-60.png

CMC has a similar look at H5. Right now, the GFS is way out on its own for that timeframe.

[bubba hotep]

[Cpv17]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gem/2022020512/gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_scus_31.png

That’s some deep cold right there. The 540 thickness line is literally right over my house lol

[bubba hotep]

18z GFS joins the other models but it has the ridge axis too far east for our system to dig enough.

[Snowman67]

The CMC has some light snow in Houston.

What time frame?

[Cpv17]

The CMC has some light snow in Houston.

What time frame?

February 13th.

[Haris]

[bubba hotep]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/4ZrQb24/icon-mslp-pcpn-frzn-scus-60.png [/url]

Lock it in!

[NDG]

Very good discussion about the current very strong Polar Vortex for this time of the year, which usually means Arctic air closer to the poles but because of continuing ridging over Alaska and northern Pacific the PV has continued sending Arctic Shots over eastern Canada down into the eastern US which is unusual considering that the NAO has been positive. This pattern is forecasted to continue over the couple of weeks so the warm early spring pattern may have to wait until until closer to March which looks like to be torcher for most of the US.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-we ... 3EaLi8zWbg

[cheezyWXguy]

Maybe I’m reaching here since it’s so long range, but if that bowling ball in the feb 17-19 range moves through at the strength the gfs is depicting, but the cold air isn’t there for a winter storm, it seems like the focus would become a threat for early season severe weather in ntx or Oklahoma