Pacific Northwest Weather

[AnthonyC]

A beautiful morning gave way to a cloudy afternoon and evening. Currently 62F and it feels muggy outside!

As for tomorrow, things don't look too bad...esp. in the morning. So if you have any gardening...lawn mowing, etc...get it done in the morning or early afternoon. Sunday looks very wet...esp. for this time of year. Some models indicate a broad region of 0.50+ inch of rain. The upcoming work week starts fairly wet and cool...but early indications suggest a strong ridge of high pressure is expected to develop by Thursday/Friday...500 mb heights approach 570 and 850 mb heights approach +9C.

I guess we're paying for our awesome weather in February and March...BRING BACK THE SUN!!

Anthony

[andycottle]

Hey Anthony. That`s what I mentioned in my weather outlook earlier this afternoon, is that a big ridge of high pressure along with warmer temps looks to build back into our region after about next saturday.

My weather started out sunny and nice early this morning, but then from about late morning through early-mid afternoon, we had partly cloudy and or overcast intervals. Skies became cloudy early this evening along with a very quick light shower or two. My high today was 72 with a low of 48.

-- Andy

[invisible]

We had partly cloudy all the day ,but we had light shower sometimes late in the afternoon with a high of 74 F. I helped my mom outside to fix the yard up. It was muggy.

I'm glad that i heard about the weather for next weekend. It's supposed to be dry and warm.

[depotoo]

hi northernbuck! welcome! post and ask away! that is what everyone is here for - to learn all we can!

once again welcome!

[andycottle]

Well folks....looks like GFS and NAM still on track for a VERY wet and very rainy sunday as 24hr - 36hr precip totals could reach near an inch. Also Could see some pretty heavy rains in the more moderate rain bands. Suface winds and on up through the 500MB level still going in a south to SW direction with 850MB temps of +6C. So saturday may be the best day to be outside, because from sunday onward through friday will be wet and showery at times.

-- Andy

[TT-SEA]

According to the models... next weekend will also be cool and wet.

I am not sure where everybody is getting the idea of a strong ridge building by the middle of the week.

[andycottle]

Good morning all.

Lastest GFS and NAM are still on track for a very and rainy sunday with 24hr -36hr precip totals being near an inch. Monday should also be pretty wet, but looks like tuesday through possibly the weekend, we`ll have showers at times and also some dry periods. High pressure may try and build back into our region after next weekend.

-- Andy

[AnthonyC]

A very blustery morning...wind gusts in excess of 25mph. Currently mostly cloudy...we had some rainfall overnight but nothing substantial.

Two systems to watch in the next week...tonight and Tuesday night. Tuesday night still has the potential for a high wind event...though it would be unlikely for this time of year. Tomorrow looks very wet...for anytime of year as a shortwave embedded in a 120+ jet stream develops into a cold front and plows through Western Washington. Some places...esp. the coast and northwest interior...will see over an inch of rain.

What is causing this unusual weather for the middle of May? An upper level low in the Gulf of Alaska is creating a solid, southwesterly flow that is indicative of January, February and March...but not May. How long will this last? For the forseeable future...latest GFS runs have backed off on the strong ridge of high pressure...they now maintain a weaker zonal flow.

Will the sun ever return?! lol.

Anthony

[TT-SEA]

The sun is making an appearance right now in North Bend.

And it warm and muggy. Feels like summer.

[TT-SEA]

So far the high temperature here at our house has been 75 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

We have a dewpoint flirting with 60 degrees so it feels humid. We were working outside this afternoon and really sweating.

Much warmer than I expected. It feels like July rather than May.

I now think May will be yet another above average month. The month is about half over and we have yet to have a single day below normal. We are running 3 degrees above normal for the month.

We should have a couple below normal days this week... but even under a trough it is warmer than it should be at this time of year. The last week of May will likely see most days back above normal.

So even though we will end up above normal for precipitation... it will still end up being a warm month.

The beat goes on.

2005 is another warm year.

[snow_wizzard]

Very heavy air and balmy today. I would not be surprised to see a VERY significant amount of rain tonight and tomorrow. Going from this warm wet air into the cool air promised for early next week should spell a huge rain for this time of year.

This looks like it will be a very wet sping overall. It is very interesting to note than the normal progression for weather is warm and dry, then warm and wet, then cool and wet, then cool and dry, and then it repeats again. That progression is very typical for weather in the short term, and I have a suspicion it is that way for the longer term cycles also. There is no question we have solidly entered the warm and wet phase. The year 1968 was exactly like this at this point. That year had the same kind of warm weather where it never quite got clear. 1968 had a warm spring with only 4 clear days in May and June combined. The same kind of dirty high pressure and muggy crap like this year. That year also had the rare combination of a very warm March followed by a significant cold snap in April, and then a long period of warm weather in late April and May...Sound familiar? I am not ready to call 1968 an analog yet, but I am going to be watching it closely! As I am sure TT will point out the comparisons before March were not great, but we might have shifted gears here!

[andycottle]

Good evening everyone.

Had some rain showers during the over night hours as a weak cold front passed through our area shortly after 3a.m this morning. The front didn`t give me much rain...and only .12" worth of precip. And as for today....skies were mainly partly cloudy through early afternoon, in which skies became somewhat overcast by later in the afternoon. Though the sun was still able to shine through the high clouds a good deal. My high today was 71 with a low of 55.

Latest 18z GFS and 00z NAM still going with the theme of a very wet rainy day tomorrow with possible heavy rain at times.

[snow_wizzard]

Weathergirl...1968 was nothing like 1949. In fact those two years were almost dead opposites, which makes it quite remarkable they both led to the same type of winter. The hallmark of 1968 was warm and wet weather, through July and then cooler and wet for the rest of the year. My previous post talks about some of the matches to 1968. The big one is that eventhough there was so much warm weather it was all cloudy and muggy (the weather I hate the most). It could just never get clear...just like this! I will live with it if the end result is like 68! We are also seeing occaisional analogs with 1968. In fact the patterns in late May and early June of that year were nearly identical to what we will be seeing this coming week. There is no question, that at least for now, the pattern progression we are seeing is eerily similar! One thing to watch for...August 1968 was tremendously wet in Seattle. That is when the below normal temps began to set in.

[TT-SEA]

I would have to discount 1968 because we were just coming off a La Nina winter.

The 1968 La Nina reached its coldest point in late spring (May) before rebounding into an El Nino.

The entire spring of 1968 was bone dry in Southern California.

But they would get hit hard in the spring of 1969. That would make 1969 a little closer to match... but not very good.

Plus we were in a well-established negative PDO regime that had been in place for 20+ years at that point.

Any similarities to 1968 are coincidental... and no guide to the future. The global indexes are way too different.

[TT-SEA]

That was a cold front??

We are waking up to temperatures in the low 60's this morning.

And very little rain fell overnight.

And the forecast calls for temperatures in the low to mid 60's the entire week.

Where is this very cold air I have been hearing about????


(Today will be the 15th day above normal in May... out of 15 days)

[andycottle]

Goooood morning all. What a nice mild morning it is! Don`t know if this applys to anyone, but this kind of weather reminds of the mid-west. You walk outside to mild and kind of humid conditions, and when the sun makes an appearence for s short time...it feels hot. Anyway, that is what it reminds me of.

Current temp is 60 degres with 100% humidity and DP of 61. Only .08" precip over night. Mostly cloudy skies right now with some breaks of sun as I`m typing this. -- Andy

[TT-SEA]

Andy... that is EXACTLY what it feels like.

BTW - your thermometer is rounding again. Remember... the dewpoint by definition cannot be higher than the air temperature.

[R-Dub]

Currently moderate rain with a temp of 60 degrees. .13" in the rain gauge so far today.

I have a feeling that this will be one of those years where summer weather won't start until July 5th
Oh well, at least I don't have to worry about running irrigation at work or home.

Last night was so warm and humid that my room felt like a greenhouse

[andycottle]

Yeah...it does feel rather mild outside this morning. Currently I am having moderate rain with a temp of 60 here at 8:56a.m. -- Andy

[andycottle]

What do you get when you have strong SW flow aloft, cloudy skies, and high humidity? A mild night! My low temp only made it to 58. That is mild for an overnight low! -- Andy