Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[Portastorm]

Yeah srainhoutx, I see that. Also, comparing the new 12z GFS to the 0z GFS ... valid 0z Friday, the upper-level low looks to be further northeast by about 120 miles. 0z had it near Big Bend. 12z has it near Midland-Odessa.

[iorange55]

From hr 72 all the way to hr 96 it looks like snow for DFW. Can I get excited, yet?

[Weatherdude20]

Wichita Falls reporting light snow. (Sheppard Base)

Its 37.1 here and rain.

[HockeyTx82]

What about the Denton area? Are we going to be to far north on this one?

[iorange55]

What about the Denton area? Are we going to be to far north on this one?

For Thursday? No. Looks like the precip goes to the red river. It'll probably be heavier the further south, though.

[HockeyTx82]

What about the Denton area? Are we going to be to far north on this one?

For Thursday? No. Looks like the precip goes to the red river. It'll probably be heavier the further south, though.

What is it about the Red River? It for some reason always seems to be a stopping point for lots of weather around here be it snow, tornados and so forth. Is there any known reason as to why?

[Weatherdude20]

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/enhanced.php?map=2

Click the and select "Hazrdous Weather Outlook" Possible changeover after 2:00pm

[zaqxsw75050]

wow, it will be crazy if this verify.

[iorange55]

I think I need to not look at anymore maps because it's getting to the point where I can't contain my excitement. I don't want to be let down on this one, because it could be the last chance this winter.

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is in for this event. I used GARP to plot two features for each 3hr time interval - the surface freezing line and the 850mb freezing line. What I see is that they're almost on top of one another across Texas Wed-Thu. What this means is that there will be a narrow transition zone between rain and snow across the state. No big area of freezing rain.

It is beginning to look like the upper-level low may track very near Dallas. That may provide enough moisture for 3-6" of snow in the metroplex. Amounts would decrease significantly as you travel north of Dallas toward the Red River, where moisture would be more limited. It'll be a close call in Austin. Probably a combination of rain, sleet and snow there.

[HockeyTx82]

Does anyone buy into this from Wed-Sunday? Temps go down and moisture goes up? Looks like the snow, if it falls, could be around for a while........

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sampl ... ?text=KFTW

[HockeyTx82]

12Z GFS is in for this event. I used GARP to plot two features for each 3hr time interval - the surface freezing line and the 850mb freezing line. What I see is that they're almost on top of one another across Texas Wed-Thu. What this means is that there will be a narrow transition zone between rain and snow across the state. No big area of freezing rain.

It is beginning to look like the upper-level low may track very near Dallas. That may provide enough moisture for 3-6" of snow in the metroplex. Amounts would decrease significantly as you travel north of Dallas toward the Red River, where moisture would be more limited. It'll be a close call in Austin. Probably a combination of rain, sleet and snow there.

Would you say Denton will be to far north to get much or just enough south to get in on the mix?

[iorange55]

If wxman says it then you know it's legitimate.


Alright I need to throw myself into writing work, and "forget" about this for now.

[WacoWx]

I think I need to not look at anymore maps because it's getting to the point where I can't contain my excitement. I don't want to be let down on this one, because it could be the last chance this winter.

i can relate. but, it does help the week fly by and makes work more enjoyable!

[wxman57]

12Z GFS is in for this event. I used GARP to plot two features for each 3hr time interval - the surface freezing line and the 850mb freezing line. What I see is that they're almost on top of one another across Texas Wed-Thu. What this means is that there will be a narrow transition zone between rain and snow across the state. No big area of freezing rain.

It is beginning to look like the upper-level low may track very near Dallas. That may provide enough moisture for 3-6" of snow in the metroplex. Amounts would decrease significantly as you travel north of Dallas toward the Red River, where moisture would be more limited. It'll be a close call in Austin. Probably a combination of rain, sleet and snow there.

Would you say Denton will be to far north to get much or just enough south to get in on the mix?

Denton is close enough to Dallas-Ft. Worth to be in the running for a decent snow event.

[WacoWx]

^^^ So I'm guessing that Waco will be on the line of rain and snow if DFW is a snow event and Austin is a rain snow event? I'm just concerned about getting those temps low enough for frozen precip. Friday off would be NICE!

[HockeyTx82]

12Z GFS is in for this event. I used GARP to plot two features for each 3hr time interval - the surface freezing line and the 850mb freezing line. What I see is that they're almost on top of one another across Texas Wed-Thu. What this means is that there will be a narrow transition zone between rain and snow across the state. No big area of freezing rain.

It is beginning to look like the upper-level low may track very near Dallas. That may provide enough moisture for 3-6" of snow in the metroplex. Amounts would decrease significantly as you travel north of Dallas toward the Red River, where moisture would be more limited. It'll be a close call in Austin. Probably a combination of rain, sleet and snow there.

Would you say Denton will be to far north to get much or just enough south to get in on the mix?

Denton is close enough to Dallas-Ft. Worth to be in the running for a decent snow event.

Thanks for the response, I hope we get hammered!!!!!

Oh and congrats to your team last night. I am a Cowboys fan but was happy to the Saints win.

[TexasStorm]

NWS Fort Worth does not seem to be on board with this whole scenario for Thursday. Afternoon update should be interesting after they have had time to look at the new models.

[gboudx]

57, after not going to sleep until about 3am listening to all the post-game on 870AM, and after watching our Saints win the SB; and now reading you talk about sneaux in DFW, I think I'm dreaming.

Let's see how the 12Z models handle the moisture up there. Like I said, I'm still skeptical of the 0.7" liquid precip forecast by the GFS in your area, but it may well be a prolonged period of light precip, probably sneaux.

As for the Saints, coming from Lafayette, I've been a fan since day-1 back in the late 1960s. It's been a long time coming.

For me, it's starts a bit later than you, since I was born 71. But nonetheless we've seen way more than our fair share of heartbreak and inventing new ways to lose. It's a great, great feeling. Can't get enough. Alright I'm done talking about this. I'll know I'll get told to get back on topic soon.

Seeing you talk about the sneaux possibility here in DFW is encouraging. Maybe it's the Saints fan in me, but I usually don't believe it until I see it falling from the sky. I'll keep mum to the kiddos on the possibility of missing school later this week, but it certainly looks encouraging. Thanks for what you do here.

[katheria]

NWS Fort Worth does not seem to be on board with this whole scenario for Thursday. Afternoon update should be interesting after they have had time to look at the new models.

They are getting there....


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX

FXUS64 KFWD 081532 AAB
AFDFWD
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 307 AM CST MON FEB 8 2010/


AS FOR THE THURSDAY SYSTEM...NAM/ECMWF ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE WITH
QPF BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL SEE A WINTER MIX. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS...SO
EVEN THOUGH WE HAVE ALMOST A HALF INCH OF SNOW FALL POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTHEAST...IT WILL MELT RATHER THAN ACCUMULATE. ISOLATED
TRAVEL PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING WHEN FREEZING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF A LINE FROM LAMPASAS TO
CANTON...AND AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE
FRIDAY.