Texas Winter 2018-2019

[SoupBone]

Is the moisture expected to hang around NW Houston? Man we're so close to getting legit stuff.

[weatherdude1108]

Love the first sentence of this.

Winter weather convective events with a deep layer of low-level dry
air always lead to more gray hair for meteorologists.

So true!lol

000
FXUS64 KEWX 082110
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
310 PM CST Fri Feb 8 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Winter weather convective events with a deep layer of low-level dry
air always lead to more gray hair for meteorologists.As mentioned
earlier, the mid-levels of the atmosphere were able to saturate much
more than what guidance was suggesting. This happens when there is
enough moisture, lapse rates, and lift in the mid-levels to lead to
further saturation due to forcing and parcel lifting/condensation.
This then led to much more precipitation across the area. In
addition, the low-level dry air led to evaporative cooling and
cooled the column enough for sleet to impact much of the area.
Temperatures remain near the freezing mark in the northern Hill
Country and western Travis and Williamson County.

For much of the day, precip intensity has been light enough that what
fell on concrete surfaces melted pretty quick and had not led to any
impacts. This afternoon, the precipitation has become more scattered
in nature, but this has led to it becoming more convective. We have
seen some lightning from the activity and with it being convective we
have seen quick bursts of sleet which has led to small, but quick
accumulations. While the sleet will eventually melt as road
temperatures remain warm, the slush that occurs from the heavier
bursts will lead to some road concerns. In addition any liquid on
some bridges and overpasses could freeze for the areas at or below 32
and we have had one report of this in Williamson County.

Because of all this we issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the
northern Hill Country and Travis and Williamson County where
temperatures are closer to freezing. High-res model guidance shows
most of the activity northwest of our area by 00z and opted to end
the advisory at this time. In summary, we are not expecting nor have
we even expected a high impact event, but any quick bursts in sleet
activity could lead to brief periods of travel impacts in the area
under the advisory.

Rain chances will continue tonight as redevelopment is likely across
the southern half of the area as warm-air advection begins to take
place. This warm-air advection will lead to warming of the low-levels
of the atmosphere and should keep all precipitation after midnight to
be all rain. For tomorrow, light rain or drizzle will be possible
mainly across the eastern CWA, but any accumulations should average
less than a tenth of an inch. Highs tomorrow will be in the 40s
across the area. Rain chances pick up a bit tomorrow night as
southerly 850 mb winds pick up to 35 knots which will lead to
continued warm-air advection showers. Lows tomorrow night will remain
cold and into the 30s to near 40 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
The upper air pattern will remain near the same for the beginning of
the long-term forecast. Southwest flow aloft within the sub-tropical
jet will continue to lead to slight chance to chance PoPs across most
of the area Sunday and Monday. Southerly flow at the surface finally
returns on Sunday with temperatures responding into the 50s on Sunday
and upper 60s to near 70 degrees on Monday.

Models have a switched a bit on their long-range progs with the 12z
guidance. A trough axis is expected to move through the southern
plains Monday night and should send a cold front into the area
Tuesday morning. Models have backed off on the intensity of this
front and therefore have some milder temperatures Tuesday and
Wednesday. There could be some precipitation with this front mainly
across the southern CWA and will keep the highest PoPs here. All
medium range guidance is showing dry conditions behind the front and
will keep the forecast rain free Tuesday night and Wednesday. This is
likely our first rain free period in quite some time. Warm-advection
returns Wednesday night ahead of the next front which brings low rain
chances back to the area. This front arrives Thursday night and
should be a stronger front with slightly drier air.

&&

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Traveling through an intense band of Virga in Fort Worth right now:)

[TheProfessor]

I feel bad for you DFW folks that don't see wintry precip. Missing to the south always feels worse than missing to the north imo.

[Cpv17]

When can we here in Texas expect a wet pattern? I’m tired of seeing the Euro run after run consistently show so much rain to our east and hardly anything over Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Temp barely rose above freezing but back down in the 20s as precip is evaporating overhead. Ran into heavy sleet around Henderson and looks like Jacksonville recently had a heavy burst recently. Radar has lit up much of the state. With temps muchncolder than forecast this evening and tonight will be very interesting.

[Ralph's Weather]

When can we here in Texas expect a wet pattern? I’m tired of seeing the Euro run after run consistently show so much rain to our east and hardly anything over Texas.

We are in a wet pattern. Rain in the forecast for the next 5 days and that pattern will continue for a good while.

[CaptinCrunch]

Trying to help things along I dumped a bag of ice out on the front lawn to attract the frozen precip to venture in.

[Brent]

I've stopped being surprised the precip dies approaching DFW lol

[CaptinCrunch]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
320 PM CST Fri Feb 8 2019


.SHORT TERM...
/Tonight/

Bands of wintry precipitation and virga continue to overspread
Central Texas and parts of North Texas this afternoon. These bands
of precipitation are developing as a result of increasing
synoptic-scale ascent courtesy of an upper-level potential
vorticity anomaly ejecting out of northern Mexico and into West
Texas. The boundary layer remains dry this afternoon with dewpoint
depressions still some 20+ degrees Fahrenheit. These dewpoint
depressions should decrease into the evening however as air
temperatures fall, and dewpoints increase slightly. Despite this
dry air in the boundary layer, social media and mPing reports
indicate that some precipitation (mainly in the form of sleet) is
still reaching the ground.

As we head into the evening hours, strengthening synoptic-scale
ascent and moistening boundary layer profiles should allow more
hydrometeors to reach the surface before evaporating/sublimating,
leading to an increase in surface precipitation rates. Convection
allowing models are in good agreement that this precipitation will
occur in the form of mesoscale bands. While the precise location
of these mesoscale bands can be difficult to forecast, the area of
greatest concern is within about 50 miles either side of a
Goldthwaite to Athens line, which is where we issued the Winter
Weather Advisory earlier today. Not all locations within the
advisory will receive accumulating sleet or snow, but where the
heavier bands set up, accumulations of up to one-quarter inch are
not out of the question. Data from the GOES-16 Global Lightning
Mapper has occasionally shown lightning flashes across parts of
Travis and Williamson Counties, and METAR observations from
Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (KAUS) have shown sleet
with distant lightning present. These convective elements will
produce the heaviest precipitation rates and will be capable of
producing sleet accumulations on bridges, overpasses, and other
elevated surfaces, as well as locally reduced visibility.

After midnight, the strongest ascent will begin to move to the
east of our county warning area, shifting the bulk of the
precipitation off to the east. Some lighter patches of
precipitation may linger through the night however. Lows will fall
to at or below freezing for most locations tonight, so any sleet
that does manage to accumulate, will likely stay on the ground
overnight, so caution will need to be exercised if traveling late.

Godwin

&&

.LONG TERM...
/Saturday through Friday/

With our initial upper disturbance pulling to the northeast and
the threat of wintry precipitation waning early Saturday,
attention will quickly turn back to the west. A potent shortwave
will be ejecting out of southern California, and as a result, flow
across the Rockies will increase allowing surface pressures to
fall in Colorado. Strengthening southerly flow toward this surface
low will result in moderate warm advection across much of the CWA
through the day Saturday. We`ll initially remain relatively dry in
the low levels, but a quick moistening is expected through the
day. We`ll keep some 20% PoPs through the day Saturday for mainly
light rain, but many areas will stay dry. It will remain cold
given the extensive cloud cover with highs expected to top out in
the upper 30s and lower 40s. By Saturday night, areas of light
rain are expected to develop and PoPs will increase markedly
across the region, although rainfall amounts are expected to
generally remain light (<1/10") into early Sunday morning.

As we go through the day Sunday, precipitation intensity will
start to tick upward through the day as stronger forcing for
ascent overspreads the region. This ascent becomes maximized late
Sunday night as the left exit region of a 160 kt upper jet is
positioned favorably over North Texas. The upper trough itself
won`t move through the Plains until late Monday, so we`ll hang on
to rain chances, especially east of I-35 through the day Monday.
We may even have some instability to work with by this time for
some rumbles of thunder. Rain chances diminish as the upper trough
moves east late Monday with a Pacific front moving through the
area and drier air filtering in for Tuesday.

We should remain precipitation-free Tuesday through Friday with
temperatures near normal on Tuesday, then warming expected
Wednesday through Thursday. Highs may top out in the lower 70s
again by Thursday ahead of another cold front expected on Friday.

[Cpv17]

When can we here in Texas expect a wet pattern? I’m tired of seeing the Euro run after run consistently show so much rain to our east and hardly anything over Texas.

We are in a wet pattern. Rain in the forecast for the next 5 days and that pattern will continue for a good while.

The Euro has less than one inch for most of Texas for the next 10 days and shows several inches to our east. It has shown this consistently now for a while.

[aggiecutter]

Winter Weather Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
412 PM CST Fri Feb 8 2019

...A Winter Weather Advisory is now in effect until early
Saturday morning for East Texas, Northern Louisiana, and
Southwestern Arkansas...

ARZ060-061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-108>112-
124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-091500-
/O.NEW.KSHV.WW.Y.0002.190208T2212Z-190209T1500Z/
Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-
Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-
Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-Caldwell-La Salle-Bowie-
Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-
Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-
San Augustine-
Including the cities of Hope, Prescott, Texarkana, Stamps,
Lewisville, Bradley, Magnolia, El Dorado, Shreveport,
Bossier City, Minden, Springhill, Homer, Haynesville, Ruston,
Farmerville, Bernice, Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport,
Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro,
Monroe, Many, Zwolle, Pleasant Hill, Natchitoches, Winnfield,
Colfax, Montgomery, Dry Prong, Clarks, Grayson, Columbia, Jena,
Midway, Olla, Mount Vernon, Mount Pleasant, Pittsburg,
Daingerfield, Lone Star, Naples, Omaha, Atlanta, Linden,
Hughes Springs, Queen City, Mineola, Winnsboro, Quitman, Hawkins,
Gilmer, Big Sandy, Jefferson, Tyler, Longview, Marshall,
Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, Center,
Lufkin, San Augustine, Hemphill, and Pineland
412 PM CST Fri Feb 8 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Shreveport has issued a Winter
Weather Advisory for a wintry mix of snow, sleet, and freezing
rain, which is in effect until 9 AM CST Saturday.

[Cpv17]

Do you guys think this will actually verify? Are they seeing the mjo going into phase 8?

[dhweather]

Looks like thundersleet just north and west of Waco.


Meanwhile its just cloudy and cold in Heath.

[jaguars_22]

So here in Victoria it’s 37 degrees... supposed to be 44!! What happened here? Also supposed to get more showers tonight?? If it’s colder than expected could we get more sleet tonight?

[Haris]

I got thunder sleet today. Roads got white too. Winter weather advisory. Awesome bust

[Haris]

High today only 32 here

[WacoWx]

Echoes starting around Dallas proper. Need more saturation but it’s a positive sign.

[weatherdude1108]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/4P78Lfw/7-F1-BD99-F-D49-E-415-A-89-D0-02-C1-B53-D2271.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/gzxfGyW/1-A29-C78-A-1-E9-A-4941-85-CF-0-DFE592-A926-B.jpg [/url]

I got thunder sleet today. Roads got white too. Winter weather advisory. Awesome bust

You're the winner!

[Cerlin]

Echoes starting around Dallas proper. Need more saturation but it’s a positive sign.

I’m not seeing any that looks any different than it has...what radar are you using?