Deep South Winterwx Discussion 2015-2016

[SeGaBob]

The 0Z GFS is no better than the 18Z.

I hate getting teased like that within 5 days...

I'm thinking it won't show snow anymore...it's been 3 runs in a row without it

[hurricanehunter69]

yeah right.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[BigB0882]

yeah right.....? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

The link isn't working. What does it show? Hurry, before it changes!! lol

[hurricanehunter69]

February 7th, and the only tropical cyclone on the planet is in the northern hemisphere.....?

[hurricanehunter69]

Intertainment purposes for the remaining sparse readers..... http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model

[northjaxpro]

The latest 6-10 day temperature outlook from NOAA. Look at how much below normal the entire Eastern United States will be, all the way south into Florida. Deep Upper Level troughing looks to remain in place across the Eastern CONUS at least the next 10 days. I have to think that the massive snow pack across New England and across the Great Lakes regions are playing a significant role for some of that arctic air not to moderate much, and apparently, the models are probably taken into account that there may be more snow for other regions like the Ohio Valley and possibly the Mid Atlantic areas within the next 10 days. More snow cover will aid to help these cold arctic airmasses from moderating fast.

[BigB0882]

The darker blue doesn't necessarily mean lower temps, just a higher probability of below normal temps. How below? We shall see.

[chaser1]

The darker blue doesn't necessarily mean lower temps, just a higher probability of below normal temps. How below? We shall see.

By the looks of things, Eastern Seaboard folks from Georgia northward, are soon going to think they'very woken up to Siberian Winter, LOL! Fortunatly the worst of it all, especially teen & single digit wind chills... will occur during the weekend when kids arn't off to school. Those in the mid-Atlantic & Northeast coastal regions, might consider pre-planning in any event of power outage to to either cold temps but perhaps even more prone to downed wires from wind related tree and branch damage to exposed wires. One can never be too safe - have food, have water, have a full tank of gas, cash on hand, charged cell phones, and some emergency plan to remain warm if one does lose power.

By the way... at least per present 0Z GFS runs, Sunday night/ Monday a.m., show Eastern Georgia and parts of Florida to potentially be exposed to a prime radiational cooling event. I don't see this as necessary record breaking here in Central or N. Florida, but bad enough to threaten crops?? Probably not with proper planning and perhaps only 2-4 hours risk of near or below freezing in colder locations. For what it's worth, the latest Euro just yanks the 500mb energy off the Seaboard and still is not dropping the heights nearly as far south as the GFS.

[TideJoe]

GFS teasing us again.... but it's less than 8 days out.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=486

[timmeister]

GFS teasing us again.... but it's less than 8 days out.

Yes, I was surprised to see this on the GFS 06Z this morning. If it's still there 3-4 days out, then I'll get excited.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

At least for once this winter its not 12-14 days out but I'm sure I don't need to remind you that it was only a few short days ago that nws offices were talking coldest record breaking temps of the winter for this weekend now of course that is off the table. One minor freeze for us then back up in the 50's and 60's for the weekend. Long story short not buying into it one bit. Bet the 12z runs show no precip and temps 20degrees warmer.

[TideJoe]

At least for once this winter its not 12-14 days out but I'm sure I don't need to remind you that it was only a few short days ago that nws offices were talking coldest record breaking temps of the winter for this weekend now of course that is off the table. One minor freeze for us then back up in the 50's and 60's for the weekend. Long story short not buying into it one bit. Bet the 12z runs show no precip and temps 20degrees warmer.

Agree. It amazes me that with today's understanding of meteorology and the super computers that are capable of processing ridiculous amounts of data that the models are still this inconsistent and sometimes completely wrong just a few days out.

[hurricanehunter69]

yep............ http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... M&ps=model GFS 192 hours http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?pr ... hive=false

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Agree. It amazes me that with today's understanding of meteorology and the super computers that are capable of processing ridiculous amounts of data that the models are still this inconsistent and sometimes completely wrong just a few days out.

Same here. I sure don't think they are getting any better than years past.

[PTrackerLA]

What's interesting is how cold the 850mb temps are in the models. This tells me we have a greater chance of seeing snow than in the events last year that all ended up being freezing rain/sleet. Looks like the most promising potential event all year but I wouldn't get my hopes up yet.

[BigB0882]

Very interesting. I noticed the 850 temps being below 0C, something we just havent been able to get down here no matter how cold surface temps have been. I still expect it to go away but who knows, maybe this will be one of those rare events that trends even stronger as it gets closer?

[timmeister]

12Z GFS

[Hammy]

I personally wouldn't trust the GFS beyond 72 hours at this point given how often it's shown this already this winter shown a winter storm in the south, only to drop it at essentially the last minute.

[timmeister]

I personally wouldn't trust the GFS beyond 72 hours at this point given how often it's shown this already this winter shown a winter storm in the south, only to drop it at essentially the last minute.

I agree, the GFS has been wrong 4 - 10 days out and I have been disappointed when the winter precipitation disappeared from the models runs 3 days out. What I find interesting is that the CMC is showing the same thing as the GFS.

[SeGaBob]

The GFS showed 10+ inches of snow and 11 degrees here just 5 days out about a week ago and dropped it... It turned out that it was sunny and 70 degrees that day. So don't trust it within 5 days is my advice.

It did get the flurries in Florida right 5 days out so I can give it that.