Texas Winter 2010-2011

[Portastorm]

Porta, are you starting to believe? Would love even an inch in Austin but have a gut feeling we may be in for a real surprise!

I don't know if I would say "believe" ... but let me put it this way, I have put down the sharp objects I was holding earlier today.

[Turtle]

18z GFS

That shows 1+ in the metroplex. I thought we were done with only a small chance on Thursday?

I think that's the snow left over. That's why there's snow on the whole snow path.

[Ntxw]

Hello E/SE Texas! Is that a foot I see around Toledo Bend Reservoir?!

[BigB0882]

Can you post a link to that map for the SE area of LA? Or PM me a link?

[PTrackerLA]

Oh that 1"+ band east of Lake Charles looks like it may cross Lafayette, please share that map for LA!

[Texas Snowman]

I definitely like this run!

Follow the upper low Portastorm! Models are undermodeling it. Lift lift lift!

Good luck Portastorm and folks in SE Texas.

I'm sorry my "snow greed" got the best of me this morning and caused me to issue my "wish this storm was bigger" comments.

Again, good luck with the late week storm!

[snow4444]

What are the NAM and GFS showing snow wise for DFW this week and what about the cold next week?

[southerngale]

18Z NAM coming in much more wet...and moist. RH levels at 700MB are much higher and NAM now showing snow over SE TX and LA by Thursday afternoon. Predicted radar really lighting up on the coast by 48 hrs...and by 00Z Friday (Thursday evening)...NAM showing 1" snow depths already. This is a huge change.

Much of the moisture seems to be much further east though . It looks like it is trending with the GFS.

I don't see that at all. There is much more snow cover and qpf...everywhere. Now..the heaviest stuff is trending further east...into E Tx and Cntl LA...but its expanding SW every model run.

Here is a ball-park guess of the diff b/w the 12z run and the 18z (in inches of snow cover):

CITY: 12Z RUN / 18Z RUN
Bay City: T / 1
CLL: T / .5-1
AUS: T / T
LFK: .5 / 2
HOU: 1 / 2.5
IAH: .75 / 2.5
GLS: 1 / 2.5-3
LBX: 1 / 2.25
BPT: 2-2.5 / 4
JASPER: 2 / 4
FT POLK: 4 / 4

So...lots of snow being forecasted by the NAM. If THIS forecast were to verify...you can assume there will be bands of 6-8" within the 4" area...and bands of 4-6" in the 2" area.

Oh my, this is just wild. I can't keep from getting my hopes up. I've been trying to contain it, so the fall isn't so bad when it doesn't happen, but I can't help it. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas! Please snow.

[Ntxw]

What are the NAM and GFS showing snow wise for DFW this week and what about the cold next week?

Don't expect much later this week (unless something unforseen happens...never know). Next week looks colddd, maybe even colder than what we have now. Usually when that happens, there is a big storm somewhere. Where? To be determined...

[snow4444]

HAHA wow whats the text output for next week. Granted i know things can and will change but wow EVEN COLDER?

[Nederlander]

Oh my, this is just wild. I can't keep from getting my hopes up. I've been trying to contain it, so the fall isn't so bad when it doesn't happen, but I can't help it. I feel like a kid waiting for Christmas! Please snow.

You and me both. I am staying cautiously optimistic though. It seems to work far better when I don't expect much...

[Texas Snowman]

Well, we might not have had the epic blizzard that some of us up here were hoping for, but our 2-3" of snow and sleet has been very bad in Grayson County.

I'm in my 40s and have lived in the Red River Valley for 30 years or so. My drive home from work today was among the worst driving conditions that I have EVER seen (easily Top 5). That includes driving after previous big snow events here, big storms in the Rockies and Midwest, etc.

The freezing rain that fell here overnight gave us quite a coating of ice on trees and on top of the roadways. Then there was a fair amount of sleet. Followed by a fair amount of snow.

All of that has now been slicked up by traffic and the weak sun shining through the clouds. That has put a treacherous slickness to the surface of this ice. Dangerous stuff to vehicles, arms, legs, and tailbones.

Be very, very careful tonight as you drive...or even walk outside.

[newtotex]

What are the NAM and GFS showing snow wise for DFW this week and what about the cold next week?

Don't expect much later this week (unless something unforseen happens...never know). Next week looks colddd, maybe even colder than what we have now. Usually when that happens, there is a big storm somewhere. Where? To be determined...

Its gonna be colder than this??? I havent broken 16 degrees here at my house near Argyle and i'd be willing to bet we will be in the 5 degree range here tonight (we always run a little below the forecast)

[Portastorm]

Good luck Portastorm and folks in SE Texas.

I'm sorry my "snow greed" got the best of me this morning and caused me to issue my "wish this storm was bigger" comments.

Again, good luck with the late week storm!

Snowman, we all have our "moments." No worries!

Now if you can make it snow several inches in Austin later this week, all is forgiven. Then I'll return the favor and get you some snow next week when the next Arctic front comes down.

P.S. Glad you made it safely home. Be careful!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Ntxw, would you does us a favor for those living in LA and post that NAM snowfall model pic of LA. Please?

[Texas Snowman]

Also, from KXII-TV met Steve LaNore about the frigid cold here in the Red River counties and southern Oklahoma.

Also a tidbit about next week's potential winter weather.


-----

Wind Chill Advisory Tonight; Severe Cold Wave through Friday
3:45p.m. Tuesday 1 February 2011

Roads remain very icy tonight and into Wednesday. Some breaks in the clouds allowed for partial melting followed by a quick re-freeze this evening. Cloud will tend to thin out with the loss of daytime heating, allowing for even colder temperatures tonight. He air flow is also coming from a colder air mass still located to our north so this will contribute to cooling as well.

A Wind Chill Advisory is posted through Wednesday morning. A stiff north to northwesterly wind of 20-30mph will put overnight wind chills in the minus 10 to minus 20 degree range. These are very rare wind chill numbers for Texoma and it is a dangerous cold situation. Everyone is urged to keep outdoor exposure to only few minutes at a time, and to wear a hat, gloves, safe shoes and a thick coat if you need to be outdoors.

Winds will ease Wednesday as the center of the arctic high approaches us. Skies are expected to clear Wednesday night-Thursday morning and winds will be quite light. These conditions, plus snowcover, set the stage for record lows Thursday morning. Some spots may fall a few degrees below zero on Thursday morning for the coldest temperatures in Texoma in 15 years.

A weak mid-level trough brings a chance of flurries Friday but little if any accumulation is expected. Westerly winds finally get us above freezing by Saturday afternoon.

The models are in agreement for the 3rd day in a row on the movement of another frigid arctic air mass early next week. If the computer output is correct, then the milder weekend weather will be replaced by windy and very cold conditions and a chance of snow by Monday.

[angletontx2]

Hello E/SE Texas! Is that a foot I see around Toledo Bend Reservoir?!

according to that..i wont get jack! lol

[Ntxw]

Ntxw, would you does us a favor for those living in LA and post that NAM snowfall model pic of LA. Please?

I posted it in the SE TX SWLA thread

http://wxcaster.com/models_main.htm

[Texas Snowman]

I think it's safe to say that we are moving into the neighborhood.

Of what you ask? Of two of the worst back-to-back winters in Texas history.

Especially if the SE Texas snow event materializes later this week and then more Arctic cold and snow invades the state next week.

Pretty amazing stuff. Wow...

[jasons2k]

Geez! My forecast low is 18 Degrees with wind! Bye Bye Majesty palms and a good chunk of my garden